You initially stated EVERYBODY getting Covid has a 2.8 percent chance of dying, which is totally false.
Divide the number of lung cancer cases by population and you get a surprisingly high rate that suggests everyone should be getting screened regularly... of course, these cases are clustered in smokers and people exposed to noxious gases on a regular basis, and the average person has little to no reason to fear lung cancer.
A horse having odds of 35 to 1 in a race does not mean that it will win every 35th race. Odds are a statistical expression of chance. That particular horse will likely never win a race. If it had a field of particularly poor horses, the statisticians (or "bookies") would alter its odds accordingly to keep the number of winning punters in check.
The overall odds are for everybody. Just as some horses are faster than others, so there will be a spread of liability to a particular outcome which will be different for every single individual. That is in the nature of statistics.
Look up "standard deviation" and "normal spread".
If the numbers have been consistently and honestly gathered, the overall chances indicated will be true, but there is zero chance of saying what will happen to any particular individual. Any numbers gathered are only as good as the gathering mechanism.
A year ago, there was precious little organisation, numbers were much reduced because cases were missed or not recorded resulting in an early relaxation which came back to bite us October through January, and that was after effective treatments were developed. The various factors of voluntary precautions and the vaccine have reduced the numbers of new cases, and the better knowledge of treatment is maybe cutting the bad after effects. Plus there is a reducing pool of people who can be affected, but on the other hand, at the moment there is an increasing number of people who have been vaccinated and are thus perfectly capable of picking up the virus and carrying it around to spread onward. Not medically carriers, but transporters.
There is still the risk of another spike in numbers. What big infection numbers mean is that NHS resources that should be being used for all of the "everyday" problems are diverted to covid treatment. Diverting resources away from those everyday jobs must mean that people can die from lack of treatment. Are they covid related?
Knowing that I am in the high risk category from the infection, the one in a million chance of a bad (fatal) after effect from the vaccine was for me a no-brainer against a 3 or so percent chance of a really bad outcome from catching the disease. And the very high likelihood of what is left of my life expectancy having its quality severely reduced should I go down with it.
