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Mess Deck: General Section => Chit-Chat => Topic started by: Tug Fanatic on February 12, 2020, 12:11:03 PM

Title: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Tug Fanatic on February 12, 2020, 12:11:03 PM
I can see the real urgency in eliminating carbon emissions but I have a couple of observations about the idea of banning all but electric and hydrogen new cars from 2035 (or 2032 in this mornings papers.)

1. Where are we going to find the carbon neutral electric generating capacity on a cold dark calm winters night when we all want to charge our cars and neither wind nor solar are generating anything?

2. When are we going to upgrade the National Electricity Distribution Grid at all levels down to your house for the vastly increased capacity that it is going to need?

A reasonable estimate seems to be that we need to increase generating capacity, available in all weathers and at all times of day/ night by around 40% and distribution capacity by 50%+. Experience suggests to me that such a vast increase in both generating and distribution capacity will not occur overnight or even by 2035.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: grendel on February 12, 2020, 04:01:14 PM
since a fast car charger (2 cars) takes the equivalent load of 10 average households (this is based upon the national average for a house consumption of 1.5kW and is a diversified load, compared to a car charger which takes its full load or not depending upon whether it has a car plugged in and is classed as a non diversifiable load. this means that for every current substation we have , 5 new ones will be required to take the load of car charging, trust me - the infrastructure isnt up to this, we would need to generate a lot more energy too.
hydrogen is in the mix because by then we will have converted domestic gas to hydrogen, its on the cards and trials are in progress.
once the gas infrastructure is in place then hydrogen cars are a distinct possibility. I think that has the same target dates as the car thing, now we just need the nmanufacturers to design the cars.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: warspite on February 12, 2020, 04:38:28 PM
Just buy your car the day before the ban comes in  :D , they will still need to have fuel available (if there is any left in the ground) for use 20-30 years after the ban, my car turned 21 this month and year.  %)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: kinmel on February 12, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
1 litre of petrol is equivalent to 9.8kw and cars use 16.2billion litres of petrol a year, (144billion kW per year)
1 litre of diesel is equivalent to 10kW and cars use 20.8billion litres of diesel (208billion kW per year )
Before you even begin to worry about how to generate an additional 350b kW, you need to calculate the cost of distributing it to every street in the UK when virtually all the urban cables are buried under roads.
Thank god this country knows how to design and build maga-projects such as HS2, Heathrow and cross-rail in just 12 years from a standing start.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: DaveM on February 12, 2020, 04:59:00 PM
Technically? It's impossible in that timescale, of course - but politically?? I suppose we only have to believe and it will happen....  %)
DaveM
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Martin [Admin] on February 12, 2020, 05:28:40 PM
 
Although we don't do 'politics' here on Mayhem.... we'll let this one until the weekend.

b Keep it civil / constructive gentlemen.   :police:
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Colin Bishop on February 12, 2020, 05:33:19 PM
It is easy to make promises you kmow you will never have to keep! Politicians of whatever flavour are generally not lnown for their technological expertise.

Colin
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: TheLongBuild on February 12, 2020, 06:13:18 PM
Will it not just be a gradual change anyway as by then I would imagine there will be a lot more Electric cars on the road and some will stick to Petrol/Diesel until they or the car gives up the ghost and I bet the date gets extended anyway.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Colin Bishop on February 12, 2020, 06:38:19 PM
Yes, ultimately there will have to be some pragmatism about it all.

(sorry for typos in my earlier post, I have a bit of an eye problem at the moment!)

Colin
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Baldrick on February 12, 2020, 06:54:15 PM
  The thought of hydrogen fuelled cars fills me with dread .   With those numpties out there, no matter what safety features they build into the fuel dispensing facilities you can bet someone will defeat the system and put himself and the entire fuelling station into orbit.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Colin Bishop on February 12, 2020, 07:09:11 PM
Quote
The thought of hydrogen fuelled cars fills me with dread .   With those numpties out there, no matter what safety features they build into the fuel dispensing facilities you can bet someone will defeat the system and put himself and the entire fuelling station into orbit.

I wouldn't worry too much. As has been said, if petrol had just been invented it would be immediately banned as being far too dangerous to handle.

Anyway, a hydrogen leak would dissipate so quickly that it would be unlikely to ignite.

Also, bear in mind that batteries in electric cars contain a huge amount of energy in a small package and a short circuit could also send you into orbit. Even if you short circuit an ordinary standard car battery the results can be spectacular.

Colin

Colin
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: CGAux26 on February 12, 2020, 08:05:49 PM
First I will say I am a gasoline man.  My career was in the oil refining business.


I agree with all you guys say about the huge new electrical infrastructure electric cars will require.  The national will and MONEY required to get that done is beyond practical imagination.  All the advocates of electric cars ignore this.


BUTT consider the comparative "refill" time.  You can pump a tank full of gasoline in 5 or 10 minutes and drive 200-300 miles before you fill up again.  A full electric charge takes, what 2-4 hours?  If your battery gets low far from home, you are stuck there for all that time.  And the range is far less.


Think I will move to Mars and try breathing CO2.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Tug Fanatic on February 12, 2020, 10:05:02 PM
To me the ability of a battery pack to accept a charge quickly is not such an issue as I am suspect that this is an area that will improve dramatically.

Where I become more sceptical is about the availability of recharging points that are always available on demand wherever you need them and the fact that the quicker the charge the greater the power the system supplying it needs to be able to supply in a given period of time. I can't see that a very large number of new pylons and transmission lines is going to be trouble & protest free even if sources of power can be built.

Martin,
Sorry if I posted a "political" topic but it didn't occur to me that it was political & outside the rules. At least we have all been well behaved so far.  :-))
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: malcolmfrary on February 12, 2020, 10:18:34 PM
As electrical energy for cars stands at present, we are unlikely to get anywhere near the charging capacity needed.  Probably the same with hydrogen. 
Either way, we are likely to need a huge change in transport habits when it come about.  I don't see the range problem ever going away with electric.
With hydrogen, I have heard about cars in WW2 being run with huge gas bags on the roof as a store for town gas.  Hydrogen was the main ingredient of that, but at the low pressures involved needed a big store (i.e. a great big gasbag) for any resonable range. 
At high pressure, things start to get tricky.  Storing and using, not a huge problem, but refuelling is where things become fraught.  And if the stuff is to be distributed via the gas grid, it will need considerable effort to compress it enough to get a big enough charge into a compact enough space to give the range wanted.  And compressing it takes more energy.
Could be practically possible, but quite possibly that means not practical.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: cos918 on February 12, 2020, 11:20:41 PM
one of the other problems is most homes. They have a 50ah single phase Fuse. Thats about 12Kw. add a 10Kw fast charger on the side of your House. Then some one flicks on the Kettle about 2Kw and pop gos the fuse.  Most home are not rated to run these loads. Of course you can get lower power chargers but they take longer to charge.
The goverment or who every can set a date . It means nothing. if there is not the correct inferstructer. 15 years is not a lot.
It take about 10years to get a Nucular power station on line. Maybe a little less. This week the brought down the last of Didcot A power station. Aberthaw is set to close soon. And the want to build about 2m homes in the south. Or abouth 20000 Kw+ of new load not to mention eletric cars .
The numbers simpley dont add up
John
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: BrianB6 on February 13, 2020, 12:07:19 AM
Dads Army episode The Armoured Might of Lance Corporal Jones
Jones and Walker reluctantly travel to the church hall with a giant gas-bag on the roof. Jones' bayonet accidentally punctures the gas supply pipe and Jones and Walker succumb to the gas. When they recover, they learn that the gas bag is nearly empty. They reach the church hall to find it empty except for Frazer, who tells them that everyone's already at the practice. Frazer decides the gas fire of the Vicar can be used to refill the gas bag. The Vicar interrupts, but Frazer passes it off as filling the Vicar's gas fire.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/74/Jones_van_Dads_Army.jpg/250px-Jones_van_Dads_Army.jpg)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: CGAux26 on February 13, 2020, 12:21:40 AM
Now to hydrogen. 
Where will it come from?  It can be made from crude oil, but the huge capacity would have to be built at a big cost.  And Oh, hardly carbon neutral and politically incorrect. 
Or you can make it by electrical electrolysis of water.  Again, mucho more electrical capacity required.
And how do you safely transport hydrogen to all the refueling points?  They bring it into my refinery in cylinders about 12" diameter, made of heavy wall steel, under very high pressure, so as to be able to transport it economically. 
The next couple of generations have huge challenges ahead.  Good luck, kids.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: imsinking on February 13, 2020, 12:55:12 AM
Absolute nonsense , the materials for battery production are RARE , Hydrogen is expensive / dangerous to produce or transport , remember when NUCLEAR  power was going to be the be all for ships / cars / trucks you name it . . .Where are they ?
Until they can produce power within the vehicle etc it's going nowhere , or a different method of storing  not batteries , and fast charging (in minutes) it's just a pipe dream  . . .or for the WEALTHY
Bill  {-) [size=78%] [/size]
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: BrianB6 on February 13, 2020, 02:12:42 AM
My predictions for 2035  :embarrassed:
The 2028 corona virus will have reduced the world population to 1 billion
Food production and distribution will be automated
Offices will be extinct.   The few workers that are needed to do office work will all work from home.
No one will own a car.   Taxis will be computer controlled and available on demand.
Goods distribution will be done only at night.   Again driverless.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: derekwarner on February 13, 2020, 02:15:35 AM

An amazing pledge by BP [British Petroleum]......I wonder what it really means? ...... Derek


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-giant-bp-is-latest-to-pledge-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-2020-02-12 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-giant-bp-is-latest-to-pledge-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-2020-02-12)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: CGAux26 on February 13, 2020, 04:35:50 AM
I expect these people who are demanding immediate stoppage of oil and gas production are not traveling by hydrocarbon fueled conveyances. 


And if and when we are forced into all the changes required to go electric or H2 cars, how are going to fuel airplanes?
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: KitS on February 13, 2020, 08:05:25 AM


And if and when we are forced into all the changes required to go electric or H2 cars, how are going to fuel airplanes?




Or railways?


With Government slowing electrification of some lines already (No wires from Bath to Bristol......) and miles and miles of track that no-one's even considered electrifying yet, how do they expect to run trains on those tracks?
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: david48 on February 13, 2020, 08:14:39 AM

 When we stop Friction without lubrication maybe we will not need oil/grease!!!!!!!!
David
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: warspite on February 13, 2020, 09:05:11 AM
I'm waiting until they discover dylitheum crystals to power vehicles  %)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: warspite on February 13, 2020, 09:07:04 AM
there used to be trolly busses, why not go the whole hog and do a scaletric set up in cities to cut carbon emissions  {-)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Tug Fanatic on February 13, 2020, 09:11:14 AM
I live in a country area and we have no gas which means that we all have oil fired central heating + lots of wood burning stoves. We also have no buses so are reliant on our cars and the nearest railway line isn't electric. If we are to go emissions free we all need new heating systems and lots of charging points - probably up to 3 per house.

We also have farmers who burn a lot of oil directly and are real polluters with the nitrate fertilizers that they put on the land to grow our food.

Whereas technology, like full fibre broadband and 5G, tends to roll out in cities and trickles down to country areas in this case we will all need it at the same time. This is an enormous task & the cost will surely be vast if it can be done at all.

I have gathered from your replies that you are all as sceptical as I am but unfortunately that doesn't remove the need to do something. I agree with those who have said that our kids/ grandkids have a problem.

Badly thought out headline grabbing sound bites are not an answer but I haven't seen any indication of a realistically costed achievable strategy to get to the desired endpoint from anybody.

We also need a new battery technology because, as I understand it, there simply isn't enough of the mined materials necessary to produce all the required batteries on the planet.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Colin Bishop on February 13, 2020, 09:52:34 AM
Politicians and activists seem to think that magic revolutionary solutions are available to solve problems but life isn't usually like that. Very often the supposed 'solution' simply shifts the problem somewhere else or the law of unforeseen consequences swings into action.

Most real improvements come about in an evolutionary manner. We are seeing this at the moment with the shift from cash to electronic payments and  internet buying replacing high street retail.

In Edwardian times serious concern was expressed that London would soon be knee deep in horse manure if traffic levels continued to increase. Of course the motor vehicle then came along. But it didn't happen overnight. As late as the 1950s our coal and other items were delivered by horse and cart and the local bakery mintained a stable and that was in the outer London suburbs.

Colin
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Tug Fanatic on February 13, 2020, 10:49:38 AM
I agree but there isn't time for that here unless you delay it for say 20 years with possibly very unfortunate consequences.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Colin Bishop on February 13, 2020, 11:04:32 AM
Well, if you go ahead with all this regardless of the consequences then the economy will go bust and society will break down. So we are stuffed either way.

But it won't make any diffenence as the UK plays only a very small part in global warming and the rest of the world won't follow suit so it will be woe and global destruction but I will be dead by then....

Not much point in this debate really if there is no viable solution short of decimating the global population which may happen through epidemics and natural disasters anyway.

Have a nice day!

Colin
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Baldrick on February 13, 2020, 03:39:31 PM
I wonder why this   https://www.toyota.co.uk/world-of-toyota/environment/fuel-cell-vehicle        has never got any momentum ? To my knowledge they have been developing the technology for 60 years, in 1957 we were involved in the construction of the laboratories to develop fuel cells and bring them to the market. Still does not figure as the motive power of the future despite having zero emissions except H2O.and having been demonstrated as an ideal means of motive power.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: grendel on February 13, 2020, 04:06:48 PM
probably the supply of hydrogen fuel.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: CGAux26 on February 13, 2020, 10:02:14 PM
My gawd! 700 bar = 10,200 PSIG!  And where does the H2 come from?  Same issues as using H2 in and internal combustion engine. 


Calling Elon Musk to expedite my passage to Mars.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: malcolmfrary on February 14, 2020, 09:23:43 AM
I wonder why this   https://www.toyota.co.uk/world-of-toyota/environment/fuel-cell-vehicle (https://www.toyota.co.uk/world-of-toyota/environment/fuel-cell-vehicle)        has never got any momentum ? To my knowledge they have been developing the technology for 60 years, in 1957 we were involved in the construction of the laboratories to develop fuel cells and bring them to the market. Still does not figure as the motive power of the future despite having zero emissions except H2O.and having been demonstrated as an ideal means of motive power.
While a fully loaded car itself can work very well, there are the minor points of producing the hydrogen in the first place (separating hydrogen from whatever it has attached itself to takes at least the same amount of energy that you get back when you recombine it with oxygen), transporting it to filling stations and storing it (hydrogen, being the smallest possible molecule, is the best at escaping), refilling the car with the pressures involved (anybody remember the tense enjoyment of refilling a gas lighter?). 
I do see a future with a lot less travelling, certainly in personally owned transport.  I can't see providers of hired vehicles, whether for individuals or public mass transport, taking well to the idea of carrying large loads, so that would put the kybosh on a lot of us transporting boats to a lake.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: plastic on February 14, 2020, 09:39:25 AM
I worked with Hydrogen for years - it's a nightmare to contain - it is such a tiny molecule that it escapes through materials.     
Also, if you look at the condition of your average petrol pump, can you imagine the huge leaks from the system after a whole bunch of amateurs have mishandled the equipment?Also, you can see a petrol leak - you can't see Hydrogen leaks.

If you actually look at the end-game for all these policies, it's basically taking the UK back to 1920.      The 'little people' will not be able to heat their homes or travel anywhere.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: kinmel on February 15, 2020, 11:14:38 AM
Commenting on a report by M.P.s the National Grid said that just 54 charging stations, placed at appropriate points along the strategic road network, would mean 99 per cent of drivers in England and Wales would be within 50 miles of a charge point. It estimated that this could be delivered at a cost of 800m but said "investment will be needed by industry and enabled by government".
Within 50 miles...   There are no strategic roads in north Wales so 50 miles it is.  The e-golf has a real world range of 120miles.  Drive 50 miles top up, drive home and there is 70 miles left, 20 really because I will need 50 to get back to the strategic charging point.
54 stations for 800million, just short of 15million each and that is before the 150% cost over run
I can see the clouds, but where are the cuckoos?
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Tug Fanatic on February 15, 2020, 11:33:39 AM
Those would just be enormous car parks with people sitting for hours waiting for their cars to charge - if they could find a space.

Now that is what I call a commercial opportunity!

Strategic network charging points do nothing to deal with the basic problem which has to be "at home" and "at place of work" charging.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: john_k on February 15, 2020, 11:56:13 AM
Good day all,

Another aspect of the plan which seems to have escaped most people's attention: using the petrol and diesel fuel consumption figures from above, and assuming that the government probably gets two thirds of the selling price, how will they replace the 30 odd billion pounds of lost revenue?
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: plastic on February 15, 2020, 11:59:11 AM
I did a project at work to install a couple of electric charging points - the reason was a chicken and egg problem - no-one would buy an electric car if they couldn't charge it at work and work wouldn't fit charge points as there were no electric cars on site.       I was aware of some staff members saying they would definitely buy an electric car if there were charge points.     

As a 'green initiative' I did a presentation to management and got the funding for the charge points as an experiment to measure exactly how much energy would actually be taken to top-up people's electric cars. 

I also organised an electric car motorshow on site to launch the new facility.      We had BMW, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Vauxhall, Renault etc. bring their electric vehicles along to demonstrate.
Soon after, we had the problem of too many people buying electric cars and them having to share the charge points.   %)
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: plastic on February 15, 2020, 12:01:27 PM
Good day all,

Another aspect of the plan which seems to have escaped most people's attention: using the petrol and diesel fuel consumption figures from above, and assuming that the government probably gets two thirds of the selling price, how will they replace the 30 odd billion pounds of lost revenue?
Almost all new cars are connected to the internet - not so you can surf while you drive - it's so they can announce their location ready for Pay Per Mile driving.
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: Mark T on February 15, 2020, 01:29:40 PM
Almost all new cars are connected to the internet - not so you can surf while you drive - it's so they can announce their location ready for Pay Per Mile driving.


This is so true - Recently I've been delivering new Tesla's just imported from the states.  Two things happened which surprised me.  The first was I received a call asking me why I was taking a car to Leeds that should have been delivered to London?  It turned out that I had been given a wrong car at the docks but Tesla track all of their cars worldwide and know the location of all of their cars at any given time.


Secondly on another occasion one of the cars I was collecting had locked itself shut with the keycard inside.  I quick call to Tesla somewhere in Holland and an hour later they remotely unlocked it for me from Holland.  Real big brother stuff!
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: plastic on February 15, 2020, 01:42:39 PM
Yes - and as it's all 'real-time' it means variable tariffs depending on where you drive and at what time.       A trip to London at 8am?      "Sorry, Dave.    I can't let you do that.   You are not rich enough."   
Title: Re: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?
Post by: plastic on February 15, 2020, 01:51:14 PM
California has already started to ration infrastructure - you can only have a maximum of 50 gallons of water per day (reducing year on year), per person and they are switching electricity off for days at a time in some areas.

And with Smart Meters on your gas and electricity rationing / controlling your energy 'allowance', you might have to choose between driving to work or heating your house.

Have a look at UN Agenda 30 and read between the soft, fluffy lines of 'NewSpeak' and guess how their vision is to be implemented.