Model Boat Mayhem
Mess Deck: General Section => Chit-Chat => Topic started by: Baldrick on December 20, 2020, 11:42:35 am
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Doing A bit of idle mathematics between the barrage of bad news I have come to a conclusions that :- at the current rate of 130,000 plebs done per week and acknowledging that although I am as old as the hills there are more vulnerable people and front line workers who need doing first ,I estimate there are about 4 million in front of me I have booked the first week in August as a possible date
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Once the easier to administer vaccines come on stream the rate of delivery should go up dramatically.
What concerns me is the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine that most of us are going to get (cheapest & most available). It is uncertain how effective it is. The results of tests done are that it is around 65% with hopes that it might be higher but there are no statistically valid results for older people to prove that it will be and the newspaper headline numbers for a mistaken split dose do little to convince me. The other vaccines are all over 90% effective.
Proven 65% protection might be enough to make you happy to do more than you did but it doesn't do much for me. I do realize that if everybody had a 65% vaccine it would be the end of the problem but that is not going to be the case for a long time. In the meantime there is a 35% chance that it has done nothing for me at all.
As a person at serious risk am I going to take the 35% chance and am I going to believe you because you tell me that you are immune because you have had the 65% vaccine?
I will happily have any vaccine (95% effective) other than the Oxford AstraZeneca (65% effective) but we are not going to be given a choice as I understand it.
I am hoping that Oxford AstraZeneca come up with some acceptable statistically valid test results that show the split dose, that they accidentally gave to a small number of younger patents, actually works for older people and that it gives a protection rate of well over 65% and is equal to the 90%+ protection from the other vaccines. Until then I am not looking to be first in the queue as accepting it would surely put me at the back of the queue for anything better.
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I get my first jag this Tues at local practice luckily
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I get my first jag this Tues at local practice luckily
Lucky you, most people will have to manage with a Ford Fiesta. ok2
Re the AstraZeneca vaccine, the latest I heard is that it is likely to be given in two full doses but four weeks apart instead of three. The likely degree of immunity is indeed a concern but on the plus side it is believed that even if not immune and you get the jab the effects are likely to be mild.
This is all going to take a lot longer than HMG would like to have you believe.
Colin
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............................Re the AstraZeneca vaccine, the latest I heard is that it is likely to be given in two full doses but four weeks apart instead of three. The likely degree of immunity is indeed a concern but on the plus side it is believed that even if not immune and you get the jab the effects are likely to be mild......................
Colin
Firstly to say that everybody who has had the vaccine so far has had one of the 90%+ vaccines which I would happily have tomorrow.
Re the AstraZenica: I don't accept unproven medical data. "Believed" does nothing for me. I am waiting for peer reviewed results.
The government needs to talk up the Astra Zeneca vaccine as they want most people vaccinated and have they purchased so much of it plus it is cheapest. I don't and won't believe a word that they tell me without valid research results.
If they can get most people vaccinated the 65% would be fine but that is a long way off and in the meantime.............
Harsh but true.
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I agree that we need those assurances which is presumably why it hasn't been approved yet and is unlikely to be before the end of the month. At only 65% I wouldn't feel too safe either during the coming months.
There are reports that the Pfizer batch we have will run out by end of January and it could be a couple of months before we get any more. The other vaccine apparently wont't be available in th UK before Spring.
Colin
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Colin
We are singing from the same hymnsheet. :-)) . Do you have real specialist knowledge or are you just doing your best, as I am, with what you hear/read in the more respectable news media?
As I understand it they can approve any vaccine over 35% effective so 65% can be approved without waiting for any new results.
We will see.
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.... all OK so far! :-)) :police:
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Do you have real specialist knowledge or are you just doing your best, as I am, with what you hear/read in the more respectable news media?
Yes, indeed. I try to make some sense of what seem to be the more reputable reports that are coming out. I'm not on social media! There is a blizzard of inaccurate, distorted and sometimes malicious information out there plus the the Government trying to project an upbeat attitude which may or may not be justified. It's very difficult to get an accurate picture. However I think that the regulator will not be influenced by political pressure as seems to have happened inthe USA.
It may be that the best we can hope for at this stage is a statement to what percentage the AstrazZeneca vaccine can be confidently stated to be effective together with a degree of probability what additional percentage is likely based on the known facts at this time. The latter will be firmed up over the coming months.
With all these vaccines there still remain big areas of uncertainty as to how long they will give immunity and to what extent they inhibit transmission of the virus by those who have been vaccinated. It is going to be a while before these questions are properly resolved one way or another.
Also will the vaccines be effective against the new variant of the virus? Basically that is left hanging in the air at the moment, too soon to tell.
And there are experiments going on to see if a combination of vaccines can push up the effectiveness percentage but it's early days for for those.
TBH the Government's suggestion that things will look much better by Easter might be, shall we say, a bit optimistic. Things may be looking up on the vaccine front but I don't think we yet have the silver bullet that many people are longing for
Colin
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I think many people misunderstand "65% effective "
Does it mean that if you have the vaccine then you have a 65% chance of not becoming infected if you meet a carrier?
Or does it mean that 65% of those vaccinated are fully protected and the other 35% of those vaccinated gain no protection at all ?
Two very different matters.
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I think that it means that, compared to not having had the vaccine, you are 65% less likely to catch Covid if you get the opportunity to do so.
Colin
Yes so many unknowns but the basic question for me is when I will get a vaccine if it is offered to me & how safe will I feel. My mental image is that at 95% I would feel safe to at least lead a very cautious life but at 65% it doesn't really change anything until most of the population have had it.
Easter? I doubt it. :((
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I think it should be mentioned that claims are that getting vaccinated will prevent "severe" symptoms if you get infected.
This would mean, that you can still be infected, and you can still contribute to the spread of the virus, even after vaccination.
People should remain cautious, and maintain safe health practices such as hand washing regardless.
Watching New Zealand crowds during the America's Cup - Prada races shows this virus can be managed.
But everyone has to cooperate to help manage the risks. :-))
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Obviously the virus can still enter the body even if you have been vaccinated (you could breath it in) but immunity means that it cannot develop and your body will attack and kill it before it can do you any harm. You might be infectious in the meantime though.
Presumably with those people who are the 5% (or maybe 35%) and not immune then the virus will develop to some extent according to the individual and symptoms may be mitigated. The AstrZeneca trial results stated that none of those who caught the virus suffered severe symptoms which suggests that it was still partially effective. Again, this is something to be confirmed.
That raises the interesting question whether you would feel safe with a 65% effective virus if you could be confident that if you were part of the 35% all you might suffer would be the equivalent of a bad cold. Hmm.
Colin
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But everyone has to cooperate to help manage the risks. :-))
And there lies the problem.. 8)
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...................................Presumably with those people who are the 5% (or maybe 35%) and not immune then the virus will develop to some extent according to the individual and symptoms may be mitigated. The AstrZeneca trial results stated that none of those who caught the virus suffered severe symptoms which suggests that it was still partially effective. Again, this is something to be confirmed.
That raises the interesting question whether you would feel safe with a 65% effective virus if you could be confident that if you were part of the 35% all you might suffer would be the equivalent of a bad cold. Hmm.
Colin
I guess that if it limited the effects to the symptoms of a cold then yes it would make me feel safer but still needing to make sure that I didn't pass it on. I would be in a better position than the third of people with the disease who don't know that they have it.
I wonder if the numbers in the trial who this applied to make it a significant result?
I would still go for the 90%+.
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the two vaccinations work diffrent from what I have read.
Pfizer stops you getting the effects of the virus . You could come asymptomatic.
The Oxford A/Z stops you getting it. If you get it you get the symptions .
John
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I guess we all need to wait for more definite information.
Colin
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the two vaccinations work diffrent from what I have read.
Pfizer stops you getting the effects of the virus . You could come asymptomatic........................
John
If that is right people taking the Pfizer vaccine effectively surely increase the risk to others as they might be infectious with no symptoms.
Yes we all have a lot to learn.
Goodness knows where we get pure information, and all the pure information, on which to base decisions. Some of the Lancet articles are a little heavy.
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In Australia, we have an ABC television/media Reporter...Dr Norman Swan....... [yes a real medical Doctor] born & trained in Scotland [so he can't be 1/2 bad].......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF7CXyYcFPM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF7CXyYcFPM)
We see so many reporters reporting on what other professionals are saying......so many State Principal Medical Offers [usually PhD's or Professors...the latter are the mouth pieces for Parliamentarians, so sing a responsible but tainted swinging tune
NSW came down in a Politically forceful manner when Victoria fell with 1000's of out of control cases, Victoria is now 'clean'ish .....NSW now has an outbreak and it is Victoria's turn to turn up the Political heat on NSW
All the while, Dr Swan portrays a lack of Political sensationalism, however a stern learned voice........I have urged my three Daughters to listen to the ABC's Dr Swan and if happy, follow his voice ..I sure do O0
Derek
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What concerns me is..
Medcram (https://www.youtube.com/c/Medcram/videos) is a good youtube channel for Covid & medical info, George.
Somewhere in all of the output is a relevant and easy to understand whiteboard explanation herd immunity from of Strep B infection in the elderly in USA that came when vaccination of youngsters was rolled out.
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Dr John Campbell is also another reliable source of information.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=dr+john+campbell
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***Just a reminder***
Please avoid veering off into politics, hearsay, or conspiracy theory territory.
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Hi all my son in Woy Woy (N. of Sydney) emailed me last night that they have gone into lockdown until Wed.
I am hearing that a person with symptoms has associated contacts tested to reveal many more. Source, one locally and another on Radio 4 just minutes ago.
If the vulnerable are vaccinated then it is likely that asymptomatic carriers will be there, but hopefully with fewer to infect, as the vaccination process continues.
This suggests we shall have the virus with us and will need to go into the same protective regime as we do for the young with MMR innoculations. (Mumps, Measles and Rubella).
As has been mentioned already, peer review is needed as we are all experiencing something new, however the experience is not unknown. I remember the Salk vaccine arriving from the USA to control the epidemic of Polio in 1955.
There have been quite a few problems since and the population, of any country, need to feel confident that their government are aware and prepared to act correctly and in their interest.
Most things cost money and it is easy to get complacent or over confident. Where are all the ex-boy scouts, Be Prepared!
Just a thought but the U.K. is more centralized than several of the European countries, just flying overhead shows the dispersal of towns and cities in Europe, this is paying the price (?). I believe Tokyo is the largest connurbation with 38M pop. Many of them wore face masks well before we considered doing so.
Cheers,
Roy
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https://www.gocomics.com/herman/2020/12/21
Seemed appropriate at this time of trouble.
Whatever the rated efficacy of whatever vaccine, we do need to have an edge on the virus. Even if a particular vaccine doesn't stop individuals catching a form of the disease, reducing the effects more quickly has got to help a return to normality. I has been suggested that the long term after effects of the disease are reduced.
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I remember a school teacher observing that one of the key differences between a quality newspaper and others was that the difference between fact and opinion / speculation was clearly identified.
In this whole debate (not here so much as nationally) we have far too much opinion & speculation backed up by too little fact with the difference between them being as blurred, often deliberately, as possible.
I await more fact.
PS Big decision of the day. Is it worth ordering salad stuff for our delivery on Wednesday or is it sitting rotting at Calais?
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From memory when the vaccines were announced -
Pfizer - 94.5% effective, sample 40,000 although in another BBc segment there was a statement made that 20,000 were vaccinated and 20,000 control group i.e. placebo, over all age groups
Mederna - 90-95% effective, sample 30,000, over all age groups
AZ - 62% effective with two full doses, 90% effective with a half dose followed by a full dose - they could not understand way this was showing up in the test results, sample 20,000, over all age groups (noted that the trail groups were in Brazil and another location.
Pfizer first dose, then second dose 3 weeks later, possible immunity 7 days later i.e. 4 weeks to a month after the first dose, seems that the others may have the same timescale.
I predict that within the next 24 to 48 hours Yorkshire and the North West will move into tier 4 due the Saturday Super-spreader train event.
Another thought, assuming that come 1 January 2021 when WTO tariffs are applied to goods from the EU arrive (as I do not expect that a deal will be made), then will a tariff be applied to the remaining 39 million + doses that the Government will have to fork out for. {-)
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..................Another thought, assuming that come 1 January 2021 when WTO tariffs are applied to goods from the EU arrive (as I do not expect that a deal will be made), then will a tariff be applied to the remaining 39 million + doses that the Government will have to fork out for. {-)
Tariffs are imposed by the importer and not the exporter. Thus if goods are made in Europe and imported and the UK imposed tariffs they would be paying it to themselves.
What isn't so clear is the effect of currency exchange rates. After the Brexit vote it became largely impossible to negotiate international contracts in £. Contracts are now normally in euros or US dollars. It is clear that markets don't like the idea of no deal and that £ exchange rates will fall if that happens. This will make all imports, including vaccines, more expensive. I doubt that the Govt forward purchases Euros to cover the cost of purchase commitments. Such costs, whilst very important generally are unlikely to change the enormous cost of Covid substantially. If there is a trade agreement then markets will take a view. I won't say any more on this as I fear that it might be interpreted as political.
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Well l followed a link I think was off BBC news to a vaccination timeline predictor and it said it would be at least August 2021 before they even got round to me getting a jab. Won't look it up again as thought it was dubious about the accuracy. I kind of thought as much timeline from the start though. I'm very nervous about the whole thing to be honest but IF it's all true as I understand the more they can vaccinate in the mean time the statistics should change rapidly. I just wished they had recognised the other symptoms earlier in the year because nothing convinces me I haven't had the gastric variant -absolutely horrible experience but they're not interested in that.
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Now that we are all about to be locked down for goodness knows how long the following calculator might be of some help
https://www.omnicalculator.com/everyday-life/toilet-paper
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Well had mine this morning very well organised joined queue at 0905 jagged at 0914 chucked out at 0929 :-) .
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Well had mine this morning very well organised joined queue at 0905 jagged at 0914 chucked out at 0929 :-) .
Really???! .... Ain't you only about 18!!!
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/l0EwYB32fj4VZxMpa/200.gif)
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:} True it reads that in a mirror
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Thats funny, I was sure I had posted something in this thread correcting incorrect comments on World economics :P
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Sheriff came to town... there's been a clean up! :police:
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Well the Oxford Zeneca vaccine has been approved and I am even more confused than I was.
It was tested (as far as I know) with 2 full doses at a 4 week interval which gave a around 65% protection. A few younger test recipients mistakenly got a half strength first dose & for some reason protection improved to 90% plus. This was however a small group and not representative of the population as a whole. It now appears that the gap between doses is to be extended from 4 weeks to 12 weeks
So what size first dose has been approved?
Does anybody know how much protection that gives until the 2nd dose?
Does the spacing of the doses change the final level of protection?
After either 1 or 2 doses can I still become a carrier to infect others?
Have any of these changes been properly tested?
In considering the above I am very aware that the government and Sage priority is to protect the NHS more than it is to protect me as an individual and that incomplete disclosure is very likely effectively misinformation.
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My interpretation:
Both injections are full dose
Latest data shows about 70% protection after 21 days
The second dose improves the longevity of protection not the level.
These changes have been robustly tested, but more data is being collected continually and an even better protocol may be found
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Some professional views here which generally support what Dunkel says.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-being-approved-for-use-in-the-uk-by-the-mhra/
However, we are also being told that after the first dose plus 22 days then if you do catch the virus the effects are likely to be relatively mild and hospitalisation is unlikely.
Of course none of this can be guaranteed and even if all the claims are true it is going to be quite a while before we can be relatively free of restrictions. My guess, for what it is worth would be late Spring to mid Summer at the earliest.
No silver bullet in the short term unfortunately.
Colin
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I have followed Dr John Campbell on youtube,
https://youtu.be/8Pj4_aK-j8I
He is the former Chief Nurse responsible of all nursing training in the NHS as well as several other key posts and is very good at data analysis and review. His almost daily updates are without bias and trustworthy, often blowing through political bull to the real facts, good or bad. Although a bit long- winded he explains things very well.
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My interpretation:
Both injections are full dose
Latest data shows about 70% protection after 21 days.................
So have they given up on the 90% with the reduced first dose?
I read somewhere that Oxford Zeneca are saying that they have a regime which gives the same results as the other vaccines but no details were included and I am not sure if that is what is being proposed.
Why do I have a nagging feeling that from an overall population perspective getting a dose into a lot of people is a good idea, even if it is not particularly effective for each individual.
The evidence for reduced severity in older people with existing conditions after one dose still seems flimsy.
I understand that something has to be done but I do wonder if my, and your, health is somehow being ignored for the good of the overall population and reducing pressure on the NHS.
This sounds more like a military view of soldiers welfare than any other comparison that I can think of.
Colin and Dunkel.
Thank you for the links. I am going to have a look/read.
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Having read Colin's link it appears my questions are also being asked by the experts.
They didn't like the 65% so they have decided to give up talking about it. Politics & spin.
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Yes, I think that to get a dose into as many people as possible as soon as possible is the policy. But, TBH, what other option is there right now? Apparently the next lot of Pfizer (assuming it is any better) won't arrive until March.
It is of course an evolving situation. There is nothing to stop extra shots being given at a later date if more effective vaccines/dosage options are found. After all, we get the flu jab annually and its a bit different every time.
Colin
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That would tally with the fact just had a call from my health centre saying my 2nd dose due on Jan 12 is now delayed until a few weeks later. No explanation why I shall ask them tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Pfizer released a statement on Wednesday saying that its vaccine was not intended to be taken 12 weeks apart. It said the vaccine's safety and efficacy had not been evaluated on any dosing schedule other than 21 days between jabs. [/size]It added that [/color][/size]'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days'[/color]
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.............................Meanwhile, Pfizer released a statement on Wednesday saying that its vaccine was not intended to be taken 12 weeks apart. It said the vaccine's safety and efficacy had not been evaluated on any dosing schedule other than 21 days between jabs. It added that 'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days'
Yes that started me thinking when read it. Political expediency is ahead of the science which I regard as very dangerous as it means that you simply can't be sure where you are.
I gather that GP's are not very happy about it either.
I can foresee potential problems ahead if real science isn't happy about the untested extended interval between doses.
I don't think that a single jab is going to make me feel safe until real science proves that it does.
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I don't think that a single jab is going to make me feel safe until real science proves that it does.
Amen to that!
Colin
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I would be happy to just get one ! Received a text from our quack which in essence says " Don't contact us about when you will be getting a jab , we've no idea either , even though you are a 85 year old physical wreck and don't enquire where the jab (you should be so lucky) will be given we haven't the foggiest, we suspect the health authority will be setting up some special centres for the purpose but who knows. We British were always good at improvisation, what's gone wrong ?
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I suspect that many of us are waiting to be offered our first jab.
I am just wondering if I will accept anything that they offer when the time comes or whether I would prefer to wait until I know what the result would be and possibly until I know which vaccine I would get. I have been in lock down for 9 months - I haven't been in a shop since Easter - and I am not going to waste all that effort now
If it proved to be true that 12 weeks was too long between doses what could / would they do about it.
As an aside if they give first doses for 12 weeks and then have to give second doses, all things being equal, it would mean that there wouldn't be any further 1st doses for the next 12 weeks to clear the 2nd dose waiting list - or would they extend 12 weeks to 15 or 16 or................ I am sure that they are hoping the system ramps up but even so.
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Well, on the basis that something is worth more than nothing I would have the jab as it offers the chance of a good degree of immunity plus probably alleviation of serious symptoms if you do catch it. It is very unlikely that you will suffer a reaction and be worse off.
But as you say, it doesn't mean you can let your guard down. It's just a bit of (hopefully worthwhile) extra insurance.
No return to normality for maybe 6 months at least yet I fear despite Boris' optimistic bletherings.
Colin
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I think its mainly Boris wants to add another feather to his cap by rushing to get the Oxford one out to get another first. Problem being the system was geared up for the Pfizer.Still when he does a Cameron in the spring it won't bother him.
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Johnson can't take credit for the Oxford vaccine. It's down to the scientists that created it. Whether the politicians will be able to deliver on the rollout and on what basis remains to be seen. They don't exactly have an encouraging track record.
Anyway, Johnson is all singing and dancing tonight about his wonderful Brexit achievement (as if anybody cares now).
Colin
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Johnson can't take credit for the Oxford vaccine. It's down to the scientists that created it.................
Colin
That never stopped a politician.
The way I feel at the moment I am with Boris's father except that I don't have French parents. I don't think that I have ever started a New Year so full of pessimism and so ashamed to be British. Anyway no more on that as it is near to being political.
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France is a damn sight worse than us I'm afraid. Another forum I belong to paints a very bleak picture.
New Zealand? Definitely! Best holiday we ever had back in 2013, sigh!
Colin
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.............New Zealand? Definitely!..................
Colin
I don't think that they want us, at our age, either.
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A few days ago it was being suggested that the bottleneck with vaccinations would come with the logistics of getting people injected. Reports this morning indicate that in fact there is likely to be a supply problem i.e. not enough vaccine available. Hence another reason just to give just one jab. If you get offered it then take it while you can, it could be a long time before the next one arrives.
Somehow I don't think we will seeing things approaching normal by Easter at all - for anyone!
Colin
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I was reading about a shortage of the glass containers that contain each dose. I am reckoning on a first dose offer before Easter.
I gather that you & I are both not convinced about when you will get a dose nor the 12 weeks either.
The drugs companies are going to need do a lot of work to be sure what the effect of delaying the 2nd dose for an indefinite period will be. I am not so sure that the non UK companies will do it unless other countries adopt the same strategy.
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A short interview with Dr John Campbell talking about the delay between giving the two doses of both vaccines. It clarifies some of the queries above. Again, this guy knows his stuff and has no personal agenda
https://youtu.be/LIFqzDQJHuw
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So how come Campbell thinks he knows better than Pfizer? Unless Pfizer have withdrawn this
'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days'
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The videos are interesting but I do agree that some of what he says seems different to the drugs companies output that I have read. He is clearly an enthusiast for getting as many people a single dose as possible. If it proves to be true that one does stop serious illness then it must make sense to give it to a lot of people which reduces the risk of getting it at all. As with so much about Covid we won't know the full story until a few million have had a dose for some time.
He suggests that delaying the 2nd dose might increase the overall effectiveness. That is the first that I have heard of that & it might represent a significant difference between the Pfizer & Oxford Zeneca.
He also says that the effectiveness of one dose is higher with Oxford Zeneca than Pfizer. Again this is news to me.
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Hi jaymac I think the 21 days is what the vaccine was tested for and registered or authorised for.
I have an allergy pill which I take and I mentioned to a GP that on occasion I might need 3 in one day and his response was that it was authorised for only 2 pills per day. I think it might be that later, as experience shows, other regimes are possible and certainly in my case quite safe.
regards
Roy
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No wonder that delivery is likely to be slow. Unlikely as it may be the best link appears to be this one:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9105999/Checklist-retired-medics-wade-qualify-Covid-vaccinator-volunteers.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9105999/Checklist-retired-medics-wade-qualify-Covid-vaccinator-volunteers.html)
We know a retired Medic who was going to volunteer until he got this list.
Give me a syringe & I will happily give it to me myself. The chance of all those other things going wrong is much less than the danger of getting Covid. I'll take the risk that I might spontaneously combust (item 9)! {-)
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Do we know what we are doing or have we abandoned the science?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/england-health-officials-defend-contingency-plan-to-mix-covid-vaccines (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/england-health-officials-defend-contingency-plan-to-mix-covid-vaccines)
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Though anyone who is a member of a Darts team is exempt the list.Campbell is a retired nurse and now teaches nurses so far not found any qualifications.As for the delay being ok when The Doctor phoned me to tell me about my cancellation for the 2ndDose his opening statement was I have some BAD news.It also appears some clinics in Bristol say they will ignore the order.
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Somehow I don't think we will seeing things approaching normal by Easter at all - for anyone!
Or indeed, according to the Lancet - ever: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext
There will always be another virus strain. ANOTHER good reason to keep restrictions. At the moment, SAGE are pushing for schools to be closed into February, but that's just the furthest they feel they can push right now. In 5 weeks time it will be "keep them closed until the end of Easter" and in April "Well, June and the summer holidays is only a couple of months away."
I don't think this is the end of the world. It's just that if this is, to quote the article, the new normal - tell us. Throughout history, humans have adapted. Even in this pandemic, shops and other businesses have adapted to become Covid safer. They will do so again. Sadly, this will be without pubs, cafes, theatres etc. but will WILL adapt. Even our model boat club ditched the weekly meeting in place of members booking sailing time at the lake. If we can do it, so can the rest of the world.
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History teaches that pandemics burn themelves out even without the benefits of modern science otherwise we would still be suffering from the 1918/19 Spanish flu and the Great Palgue of London. Things will get back to what we regarded as normal, it is just a question of time.
Nobody seems to know just why some countries, and western civilisation in particular, has been hit so heavily compared with other areas such as Africa and Japan. The answers to this may show how the Covid-19 virus can be effectively suppressed.
It may indeed end up being with us long term but maybe only on the same basis as common flu and other viruses we already live with and which are not fatal for most people.
Colin
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The Black Death was extremely virulent and wiped out half the European population before it ran out of victims. That equates to 33million people in the UK today; hard to describe that burning itself out.
Pandemics end when the virus has difficulties finding humans that are not immune to it.
The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.
Ebola died out because the affected population of central Africa mainly walked everywhere.
Covid 19 is rampant now because air travel and cruises allowed people to move quickly between continents and cities are overcrowded. All made worse by people who won't self-isolate.
Pandemics have 2 enemies - quarantine and vaccines. We rely on the first until the second is widely implemented.
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Flu hasn't burned itself out - and kills many thousands each year. This is year is different because the measures to combat Covid seem to be dramatically hitting flu numbers - as they did in the southern hemisphere.
Were Flu to be a new disease, would we lockdown in the same way? I suspect we would. Ultimately, the numbers of deaths acceptable is a political decision, but I suspect that it will be a very long while before someone works out that figure. In the meantime, the science says that you lockdown in an effort to reach zero deaths. As long as you can ignore any collateral damage, that's fine.
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True Phil but I've been lucky in that over 70 years I've not known anyone who has died of flu.
But in 2020, just one year alone, I have known of four people who have died of Covid -19 and another five who have suffered badly from it.
Colin
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That is more likely luck. 17,000 people die of flu in a normal year. If this was new, I could see restrictions being imposed like a shot. Because we have grown used to it, then there isn't any fuss.
To use another example, if you invented the motor car today, would they be allowed to travel towards each other at 60mph (closing speed 120mph) separated only by a painted line? Not a chance. People would view it as madness, but it's how we work today.
I firmly believe The Lancet is right - restrictions are going to be with us for a very long time indeed. Any politician who says it will be over by Easter is an idiot. As I say, if we are honest about this and let the business world evolve, then we can get a better "new normal", but for that we need consistent rules and there's no sign of those any time soon.
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Over 70 years I don't think it is luck! But I do agree that 'things won't be over by Easter'. I do have some faith in modern science but don't expect immediate results.
Colin
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[
The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.
So Pacific Islands/ Alaska and Australia and more are Neighbours
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Over 70 years I don't think it is luck! But I do agree that 'things won't be over by Easter'. I do have some faith in modern science but don't expect immediate results.
Colin
It may indeed be over by Easter, but I’m not sure in which year.
Peter.
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The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.
Not so jaymac, in 1919 over 40% of the Australian population was infected by the so called Spanish Flu, and over 15000 people died as a result. The population of Australia was under 4 million then as opposed to the current figure of over 25 million. For comparison, Australia has recorded about 25,500 cases of Covid, and 909 deaths so far.
The Spanish flu virus was brought to Australia by soldiers returning from WW1, and had its worst effect on children and younger people, unlike Covid.
Peter.
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Not So Peter read it again my part was a comment against a Post about 5 before
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My apologies jaymac, your comment didn’t show up as a quote from a previous post. Quotes are normally highlighted. I should have directed my reply to kinmel.
Peter.
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No prob Peter my lazy posting
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Speaking as someone who has not been in an ordinary shop since last Easter and has maintained absolutely rigorous social distancing this picture in the i newspaper this morning fills me with horror much more than it fills me with hope.
Once more I suspect that they will accept a few getting Covid if it helps protect the NHS. Remember you have no Covid protection for several weeks after getting the vaccine and they are telling us that at least one person, on average, in the picture has the disease. I would much prefer the whole thing to be done outside and to dress accordingly.
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evidently so many were anxious to get the vaccine they arrived at the centre hours before their appointment time and caused a clag up. The wife and I are due to go for ours in 10 days time, hope it will not be tipping it down !
(https://www.modelboatmayhemimages.co.uk/images/2021/01/12/0_Covid-19-Mass-Vaccination-Site-Opens-At-Epsom-Racecourse.jpg) (https://www.modelboatmayhemimages.co.uk/image/aHMZD)
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I did wonder if the i photo was of the 15min creche after vaccination to make sure that you don't have any adverse reaction.
Baldrick
That is what umbrellas & waterproofs were made for. :-)) %)
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Speaking as someone who has not been in an ordinary shop since last Easter and has maintained absolutely rigorous social distancing this picture in the i newspaper this morning fills me with horror much more than it fills me with hope.
Once more I suspect that they will accept a few getting Covid if it helps protect the NHS. Remember you have no Covid protection for several weeks after getting the vaccine and they are telling us that at least one person, on average, in the picture has the disease. I would much prefer the whole thing to be done outside and to dress accordingly.
Dressing accordingly for the great outdoors at this time of year makes it awkward for the person trying to shove a needle into your arm. Being dressed for an easy jab, OTOH, is an invitation to hypothermia. A well chilled octogenarian is not at the peak of infection resistance, and, while Covid is the major worry at the moment, all of the other ailments are still fully available.
A friend of mine (86+) has had both his jabs, both by appointment, both indoors, no crowds. "On demand" inoculation has little chance of working properly, and must result in the scenes pictured.
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Dressing accordingly for the great outdoors at this time of year makes it awkward for the person trying to shove a needle into your arm. Being dressed for an easy jab, OTOH, is an invitation to hypothermia. A well chilled octogenarian is not at the peak of infection resistance, and, while Covid is the major worry at the moment, all of the other ailments are still fully available.
A friend of mine (86+) has had both his jabs, both by appointment, both indoors, no crowds. "On demand" inoculation has little chance of working properly, and must result in the scenes pictured.
Is it on demand? I thought that the Centres were appointment based.
I would like the option of outdoors even if it wasn't for everyone. I would also happily give myself the injection but hey that wouldn't let them tick all their boxes. When the time comes I am not going into a centre like those in the pictures.
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Is it on demand? I thought that the Centres were appointment based.
No, it's not on demand. You will be contacted by your GP, by phone, text or letter and offered an appointment at a specific place and time. If you can't make it or don't want the jab you need to get back to them asap so that somebody else can be offered the slot. There have been complants at some centres by the medical staff that a number of people are just not turning up in which case their dose may be wasted and have to be thrown away.
If you cannot make the appointment it will be rescheduled. If you don't want the jab at this time it's anyone's guess when you might get another opportunity. The current priority is to get as many needles into arms as soon as possible.
Colin
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had my jab yesterday the pfizer one all ok at 90 years old
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had my jab yesterday the pfizer one all ok at 90 years old
HI and me are due to be vaccinated next Friday, did not take the earliest date on the available list, thought I would let them practise on others first. Have to go to Epsom Racecourse for it , suppose they make you gallop down the home straight and you get it at the winning post
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Have to go to Epsom Racecourse for it , suppose they make you gallop down the home straight and you get it at the winning post
Make sure you go in through the right entrance - the injections they give to horses are fearsome. :o
Colin
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Hi Baldrick, one thing I learnt at school was get to the front of the vaccination queue otherwise you get the blunt needle.
Roy
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Make sure you go in through the right entrance - the injections they give to horses are fearsome. :o
Colin
Although some seem to like the ketamine {-)
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My neighbours on both sides of me went on holiday to England to see a football match, 8 of them came back with it, never said a word to us, but they did protest loudly on facebook that they had followed guidelines to the letter..... Eh no, they had a party the night they came back and have pretty much had parties every weekend in each others houses. I feel something should be done about this, but what? There is no way to report it without them knowing it was me. I dont want my shed mysteriously catching fire I dont want to alienate the neighbours but what the........ Our neighbours consist of an NHS nurse, a butcher, a fireman (who also works for coca cola) and someone that supposedly suffers from asthma? I actually think she suffers more from sitting on her ass, ma. Or she would be a bit more careful? I am surrounded by idiots. Any policemen out there fancy an anonymous covid party tip off? These people are risking lives
Anyway, I feel pretty helpless, even my wife thinks I shouldnt be saying 'nasty' things about the neighbours. Thats in my own house! As I said, surrounded by idiots.
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The Dowager Duchess and myself went today to Epsom Downs Racecourse for our jabs and I have to report that the whole organisation up there was fantastic. I was nervous that the experience would be a shambles as so many things here turn out to be but in fact everything up there better than could be dreamed of . They really have got it sorted, straight in to a reception then without waiting to a nurse who did the necessary , and the whole thing was done in such a pleasant manner that it was a pleasure to get done . FULL MARKS TO THEM ALL :-))
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You have my sympathy Andy. It's a really difficult situation to be in if they know it is you that reports them. If they get fined hundreds of pounds then they are certainly likley to get nasty and you have to live with them after all this is(?) over.
I've just been watching the latest Boris briefing and it is clear that although the vaccination programme is going well in most areas and it looks like infections are starting to come down (but not everywhere), things are still on a knife edge and there are lots of factors that could derail all the efforts being made to ge the virus under control.
I watch the news, read the papers and do some research online but it is obvious that many, if not most, of the 20-30 generation and a whole lot of older people do none of that and probably have no real understanding of what is actually happening and the numbers involved. They are, to put it politely, pig ignorant.
I was talking to a friend recently (on the phone) who said to me 'I don't know anyone who has got it, do you?' He was taken aback and rather offended when I said I had lost a close friend, was aware of four others at one remove who had died and another half a dozen friends and acquaintances who had caught and suffered from the virus to a greater or lesser degree.
Lots of people think they will be swanning off on foreign holidays this summer. At the moment I just don't think it is going to happen.
Colin
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HI Colin after talking to my travel agent earlier this week about my planned holiday to the U S A they do not think this will happen. They think there will be many restrictions with this in mind we are planning to move this to 2022.
Stan. :(( :(( :(( :(( :(( :(( :(( :((
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Stan,
Yes, I fear he is right. The situation in the USA is even worse than here. We had been hoping to revisit Greece this year after cancelling both holidays last year but things look a bit bleak really. Maybe we will make the Isle of Wight in the Autumn.
The trouble is that when you are getting on a bit, a couple of non holiday years is a big chunk of what you might have left.
At least Mrs B and I did most of our bucket list before Covid which is some consolation.
Colin
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Andy
That is a nasty position to be in and I agree that it is difficult to know what to do. Keep well away from them sounds like a good idea.
Colin
The stupidity of people never fails to amaze me. Just because the R rate might be going down a bit is no reason to talk about reducing the lock down when the numbers infected are so high. If 100 people have it and the R rate is 1 you get 100 new patients but if the number infected is 4 million you get 4 million new patients.
Stan
Holidays. We have a moveable European river cruise booked for the end of April next year (2022). I don't see anything much before then & who knows which countries will want us & which will be safe enough to want to visit. We were in Wuhan just before the first cases made news so we are being careful.
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Baldrik
Did you get also date for your second one by any chance
Or has anyone else who has just had their first?
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On the box I have noticed several (Tui for one) travel agents trying to get people to book for holidays on the slim chance they will be able to go. After the struggle some holidaymakers had last year trying to get their refunds they will probably be flogging a deceased equus.
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Baldrik
Did you get also date for your second one by any chance
Or has anyone else who has just had their first?
Yes 3 months on , the booking software automatically put it on the pro forma
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I am getting sent a couple of catalogues a day in the post. Today was Norwegian & Viking. + several emails. They are certainly trying to get money in all with promises about how you can change your booking if you need to do so.
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More or less on R4 was interesting tonight. I like this programme for making sense of statistics...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rccm (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rccm)
I was in FVRH in Larbert 5x over xmas vacation with Mum and think I only saw a handful of people in the que compared to a 30m que before xmas. In there again last week for MRI/CT scans and again today for consultation and didn't see anyone in the vaccination area at all. Makes me wonder if there's real truth in the news Scotland is lagging.
I'm starting to know more people who have tested positive these past 2 months, some had better times with it than others (they're all spread between UK, Ireland and France). I'm 100% convinced I've had it now and suffer the "long" effects fairly reguarly -but never got tested becuase they weren't really testing back then.
I don't think I'm interested in holidays or socilising ever again (well, not for years), but I need to be able to travel for work otherwise I'm stuffed.
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We had one last week from Trail Finders for the US & Canada !!!, Think it may be a while before we get back there again. :((
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BTW: Did anyone else notice the ISO standards committee declare 1m is now 250mm? Think I missed it because every time I've been to the shops since last July, most people refuse to stay 500mm apart now (if that!).
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Saga cruises are advertising cruises from April but you can only go if you have had both jabs. Given that they are imposing a 12 week gap between doses ( which might well get longer), and it takes 3-4 weeks for them to be effective, it means that anyone going needs to have had the first jab weeks ago. That is a very small customer base to fill a cruise liner.
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Thanks Baldrick reason for asking was people like myself who were done in December not had a date yet
Cheers
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To brighten up your evening this is what I am missing. First pic is Kato Zakros in Southern Crete. 2nd one is Itea on the Gulf of Corinth near Delphi. (sigh!)
Colin
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Thanks Baldrick reason for asking was people like myself who were done in December not had a date yet
Cheers
Assume down your area it was probably at your GP or local clinic, I would not think it unreasonable to start rumblings for a follow on date with them.
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Assume down your area it was probably at your GP or local clinic, I would not think it unreasonable to start rumblings for a follow on date with them.
Around here they have been cancelling 2nd appointments. 12 weeks gap is in force.
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Yes 3 months on , the booking software automatically put it on the pro forma
I didn't get a date after my first jab. They just said they'd contact me when it came around. :((
Having said that, my old boss's wife has had BOTH her jabs already! She had the first one just after NYE.
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Once again the standard of Uk journalism leaves much to be desired.
This mornings Mail is complaining that the 50% possible chance of increased mortality from the Covid variants is scaremongering and should not have been included in the press conference. Can you imagine the headline if they had found out about a 50% chance of increased mortality that had not been reported? Damned if you do & damned if you don't.
It is very clear that the world needs to get the number of Covid cases way down to stop the virus having so many chances to mutate. If the speculation of reduced effectiveness against the new strains is true, and we keep giving the virus so many chances to mutate further, it is, I think, hard to see how we are going to get out of this mess. Scaremongering? I don't think so.
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Was watching the update yesterday and was surprised to hear what I always expected of the vaccination - that a lot of people mistakenly believe they are instantly protected, but as was stated in the briefing - once injected wait 3-4 weeks and then some protection against the severe symptoms, you could catch it and spread it even though vaccinated, the second dose improves the reduction to severe symptoms and increases the protection timescale, a vaccine only protects against the symptoms and boosts the immune system to help fight it, not stop it dead in its tracks.
I dont know if most people remember what we were asked to do in the first wave and that is to wear gloves - I have the blue nitrile gloves (from work when I did a couple shifts last year) and put them on and sanitize them when entering a shop and wash them when I get home, just in case i pick something up and do not buy it - therefore protecting others, but I dont see anyone else wearing gloves and I would if this why its spreading more easily other than its viralance
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Whether we like it or not covid may be about for a long time just like the common cold. The vaccine will not stop you getting covid but should you contract covid the bodies natural defence system will kick in and fight covid. Sadly people in the u k have not followed the rule's and still flout the restrictions putting strain on the N H S and keeping the lockdown in place for longer. For those who have a flu jab every year you may in the future also have to have a covid booster. We are all hoping get back and enjoy our hobby once again and have something we have all missed a HOLIDAY. With this in mind lets hope 2021will allow us to do both.
Stan. :(( :(( :(( :(( :((
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But even the Lancet says surface contact highly unlikely to spread it.As for wearing gloves a personal choice I think there is more risk of eye entry
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It does not matter how it spreads we have to on our guard at all times. We all know the drill hands/ face /space we have listened to this message for over 12 months now. We all are longing for the days when you can go to the pub or a meal out and have some type of normality once again.
Stan.
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I dont know if most people remember what we were asked to do in the first wave and that is to wear gloves - I have the blue nitrile gloves (from work when I did a couple shifts last year) and put them on and sanitize them when entering a shop and wash them when I get home, just in case i pick something up and do not buy it - therefore protecting others, but I dont see anyone else wearing gloves and I would if this why its spreading more easily other than its viralance
I remember there was discussion about gloves, but the virus exists just as well on those as on your hands - so if you touch your face, the virus is there gloves or not. Worse, people are less likely to sterilise their gloves than wash their hands or sanitise them. I carry a small bottle of sanitiser in my pocket and run some into my hands every time I leave a shop, even if I'm about to go into another one. At Christmas, I managed 6 sanitses in half an hour as 2 shops also wanted me to use theirs on entry. On the plus side, no cold so far this year...
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My idiot neighbours on both sides,all of whom have had covid, a nurse, a fireman, a butcher and a supposedly asthmatic are still having parties every single weekend. And still claiming they are doing everything by the rules?
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Bunker down Andy...I find it difficult to understand how the Nurse & the Fireman [both Front Line trained operatives] can be misbehaving like this
Stay away from that particular Butchers shop :-X
Derek
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My idiot neighbours on both sides,all of whom have had covid, a nurse, a fireman, a butcher and a supposedly asthmatic are still having parties every single weekend. And still claiming they are doing everything by the rules?
When you have a nurse who thinks the rules don't apply, this is grist to the mill for anyone who claims Covid isn't as serious as it's all made out. After all, if the nurse doesn't think it's serious, why should anyone else?
Fortunately, most people are abiding by the rules: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55626008
In the meantime, don't go near the butchers, if they are ignoring these rules, you can be sure those aren't the only ones they flout.
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Andy Derek & Phil
I wonder if the fact that they have had Covid is influencing their behaviour. Had it, survived it, have anti bodies that protect me from reinfection, don't give a damn about anybody else. This invincible & lack of caring attitude is something that experts fear might become prevalent in groups that have had the vaccine.
On a separate topic somebody deserves congratulating on nearly half a million vaccinations yesterday. :-))
Has anybody read anything on whether the much publicised delayed delivery of vaccines to the EU is going to be the same for deliveries to the UK? I am sure that countries (Italy most obviously) are putting a lot of pressure on vaccine manufacturers to make sure that it is someone else who has the shortage.
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There are apparently quite a lot of NHS frontline staff who are declining to take the vaccine. Although it has not been explicitly stated I rather suspect that most of these will be people of ethinic origin who altogether make up a large proportion of the NHS staff. There are worries that the ethnic population generally is being subjected to anti vax propaganda such as that vaccines contain alcohol or pork etc. There is also a legitimate concern arising from previous problems with vaccine experiments in their countries of origin with whom older members of their families may be familiar with and have understandable reservations as a result.
There is certainly concern that in the ethnic communities the vaccine take up rate is only around 50% or so.
Re supplies of the vaccines, I did see a report over the weekend that the original contracted quotas for the UK are so far unaffected. The EU put their orders in much later than we did.
There is certainly a significant minority of people flouting the rules and many of these indeed don't care. But I think that a lot of younger people (and older ones too) simply do not read the papers or watch the news and remain pretty ignorant of the realities. They probably just pick up bits and pieces on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram which are breeding grounds for false information and rumours. They probably don't even know who Matt Hancock is, let alone listen to him!
Colin
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You all aware if anyone inadvertently types covid mayhem in google your posts come up
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My first paragraph is taken from reports all over the media at the weekend. There was an NHS lady doctor who made a very valid argument for being wary of vaccines after failed experiments in the country her family came from. People need convincing by those they respect such as their community and religious leaders and I don't blame them for that.
When I grew up in the 1950s we were all scared of diptheria, polio, whooping cough, TB etc. and could see the effects of these diseases for ourselves so we appreciated the value of the vaccines which have largely eradicated them. People from immigrant families are unlikely to have that back story.
Colin
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Thinking ahead a tad, there is a possibility that the so-called vaccine passport is going to be required generally {:-{ for international travel. If this comes about how can you get around the non-acceptance bit?
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The 'covid passport' is a total minefield as people are beginning to realise. Firstly you would need a document that is internationally recognised and guess what, countries are all starting to do their own thing - pity the poor immigration officers in trying to recognise them all and weed out the inevitable forgeries.
And then just where will it apply? Will those without them be left peering enviously through pub windows at those who have them enjoying their drinks inside? What about those who are unable to have the vaccine for medical reasons - will they be barred from social activities and travelling? Will those who could have the vaccine but don't want it be treated as second class citizens?
Come early Summer when most of the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated, will only those people be allowed to travel abroad for holidays? Some southern european holiday hotspot countries and cruise companies seem to be thinking along those lines already.
Bit of a nightmare really!
Colin
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I can see all sorts of problems with a Covid Passport.
Not least are all countries Covid passports going to be given equal status, who is going to issue it and how will it be secure enough to prevent fraudulent copies.
I think that there are also a lot of questions about mutations and vaccine effectiveness that Covid Passports might need to address.
Nice idea until reality kicks in.
If Colin is right about the ethnic balance of vaccination then I am sure someone would yell discrimination.
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I forgot to mention that the fireman is actually part time, his full time job is in a coca cola factory in East Kilbride area. I dont drink coca cola anyway but I would stop if I did. Lol.
Coca covid. I was considering putting up the names of the people ignoring the covid regulations here, in case anyone comes into contact with them. The nurse works in Larbert hospital near Stirling.
I pity the people she comes into contact with, all blissfully (well maybe not blissfully if you are in hospital) unaware she is risking their lives, she could have been reinfected at any of the numerous parties and be carrying /spreading it without showing any symptoms, or am I wrong here?
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And I wouldnt go near the Butchers in Drymen (near Loch Lomond) either.
As to the fireman from Balfron, do you risk covid or let your house burn down...... Mmmm, maybe the one time you would risk covid exposure?
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I feel very sorry for the crew that the fireman works with. He is in close proximity to another 5 people when on an appliance, and the rest of the watch on station.
People like this should be subject to disciplinary action for flouting the Government rules.
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This is what you are up against:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55668923
Colin
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Andy,
I’d be looking at ways I could inform anonymously the hospital and the brigade they work for or the local press. These people would be the first to be saying that people should not be braking lockdown rules if they lost a close family member or friend.
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This is what you are up against:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55668923 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55668923)
Colin
Fines (at the present level) don't work and moral obligation is a non starter. I know what I would like to do with these people but this is a family forum so............................
Isn't it strange that the ones who are stopping the infection rates falling faster by doing what they want to do, regardless of the cost to others, are also the ones stopping the rest of us getting some of our freedoms restored.
Has anybody else noticed the enormous number of groups who think that they should have priority & jump the queue?
The last 40 years seem to have been dominated by "human rights" and similar + the rise of irresponsible social media. This might just be part of the price.
None of this has anything to do with Covid Vaccinations which I hope we can keep the topic centred on.
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There are many reasons for not wanting the vaccination summed up by what are the long term effects? These are totally unknown at the moment. I am on a 3 year trial to determine the effects. Now I'm 6 weeks in.
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Have you noticed any effects so far?
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As far as is known there are no serious short term effects. The study is looking long term.
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If you are only on a 3year trial must be a cheaper version mines is for Life ;D
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As far as is known there are no serious short term effects. The study is looking long term.
I felt a bit queer the day after but i'm alright now
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When they announce the daily figures they always say the deaths as reported with a positive Covid test within 28 days of the Death.. If you are tested positive and then within the 28 day period say you fall down and bang your head, you initially survive but a few days later you pass away because of a brain clot or something, Would this then still be attributed to Covid. ?
All above Hypothetical.
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Yes.
Roy
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Numbers are just numbers. I never came across anyone (at work) who was surprised by the results of doing their own statisitics. The corollary is the statistics were to show how they support the argument.
Trends over a period of time are the most informative, then, when they are small enough chase every bad item down until the reason is known. Moving into Zero defects rather than percentage reliability.
Last years BBC Christmas lectures gave an incite (I think it was last year, maybe I give it 80 % chance of being right)!
Regards
Roy
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And so the great Covid Vaccine war begins (very tongue in cheek).
Wars have been fought over land, water, oil, minerals, religion and now the verbal hostilities begin over the supply of Covid Vaccine.
All very predictable - sad but predictable.
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Don't forget the Navy is ready for this!
We have CV 01 and CV 02 ready to defend us.
Oh, dear I do hope we can borrow some aircraft.
regards
Roy
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So the Chinese New Year for 2021 was to be the year of the OX, but has been change to the YEAR OF THE JAB !!!!!
Canabus
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When they announce the daily figures they always say the deaths as reported with a positive Covid test within 28 days of the Death.. If you are tested positive and then within the 28 day period say you fall down and bang your head, you initially survive but a few days later you pass away because of a brain clot or something, Would this then still be attributed to Covid. ?
All above Hypothetical.
Yes, all deaths within the 28 day period are included in the COVID figures. Conversely, if through the herculean efforts of the medics you survive for 29, 30 or more days, then die, you are not included in the figures, even though it is blindingly obvious that COVID killed you. I suspect that the latter category is much larger than those who die of other causes, meaning the overall total is greater than the published figure, grim though that already is. <:( <:(
Greg
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The quoted numbers don't really matter. Lets just settle for far too many and rising quickly.
The statistic that I would choose is the excess number of deaths this year compared to previous years. This is currently 99000+. This probably underestimates the Covid tally as normally Flu kills a good few people. This year, due to Covid restrictions, almost nobody has died of flu.
When two different sources say the same thing it adds credibility to both.
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Hi the number of deaths each year was around 500,000 in the UK, this was going up as the population has increased in numbers.
I heard a figure for 2020 which was just short of 700,000, I am happy to be corrected on this. I am sure you can work out all the various situations to accomodate these figures.
But roughly they have gone up from nearly 10K to 14K per week, bear in mind the numbers are seasonal.
regards
Roy
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The number of people affected might or might not be vastly more than "normal", but in normal times we are not putting a vast effort into avoiding infection, finding new treatments and the vaccination program.
It was disturbing over the summer to see, when restrictions were eased an inch or two, large numbers of people taking a mile. And then, given the contradictory advice from on high, along with some very poor examples, a great many cherry-picked the advice that suited them at that moment without any regard for any possible consequences.
Anyway, got my letter today, stabbing is booked. Only a few miles away, with a decent car park.
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Intresting artical from the CEO of Astra Zeneca.
John
Pascal Soriot: "There are a lot of emotions on vaccines in EU. But it's complicated" - la Repubblica (https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/?fbclid=IwAR2VIDeygVsJ_AGS84cpcG5BviuT4CzfJXQpuDOQEj7IaglDvaVf_IO6oZ0)
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And who sent the 'bomb' to the bottling plant in Wrexham (suspicious package), if a hoax they need to be put away for life as a danger to themselves let alone the general public, I think the 28 days test does include all those 29+ days as well as the overall total is given, otherwise the ONS figure would be a better indicator
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Got my invite yesterday, booked online, had the shot today. Couple of hours gone by, and despite the nano chips, I still have no desire to mysteriously buy an Apple product.
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Great news that the Novavax has been approved but is it too late? The delivery dates that are being quoted are largely after the UK population will have received on of the other vaccines.
The EU mess is worrying. With anything like this I always think that it is always mentally switching places with the other side & see how it feels. I can imagine the uproar in the UK press if the EU had lots of vaccine and we didn't and it was being made in the UK. Allowing for this being political they are all acting to support their votes and their people.
I just hope that the contract situation is as seen from the UK perspective rather than that put forward by the EU. We will see.
We will also see what, out of a long list of options that I can think of in a few seconds, they are going to do to force concessions & get more vaccine sooner. As with everything else their negotiating position is much more powerful than ours regardless of who is in the right.
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It all depends on what is in the contract, the UK bioreactor is producing what is required - whether by luck or good management by the technicians, whereas the European division is not yielding the same quantity it is capable of, and thats what is causing the issue, if the contract states its for the European division to deliver a set amount then they can only get what its producing, if its based on a company wide system or 'the AZ' company standard contract, then they could claim its a breach of contract and the standard conditions come into effect - paying for the product does not mean you are entitled to demand the product, as the product belongs to the company until it delivers it, only the company can divert the product to another customer.
They could take a hit and call their bluff by repaying the EU money with interest and say that as they have not delivered, and that the contract is now invalidated and therefore the company will not be supplying the product, that would leave the EU in very sticky position relying on Biontech and Maderna alone, and therefore inoculation rates would fall further, one of Germanies advisory bodies stating its not found to be effective with over 65's is as good as any reason to cancel the contract on it not being suitable for purpose.
AZ India's produced version could be shipped to the EU from AZ, but the countries that are buying that divisions product might complain as well.
The EU's interference to the purchase system is what has caused the problem (the individual countries were going to buy from the companies but the EU said no - we will order it all as one purchaser - with two months rolling by as a consequence), thats why i voted for leave in brexit, an un-elected french designed system that stamps on the sovereignty of all its members under its guiding principles. >:-o
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It all depends on what is in the contract, the UK bioreactor is producing what is required - whether by luck or good management by the technicians, whereas the European division is not yielding the same quantity it is capable of, and thats what is causing the issue, if the contract states its for the European division to deliver a set amount then they can only get what its producing, if its based on a company wide system or 'the AZ' company standard contract, then they could claim its a breach of contract and the standard conditions come into effect - paying for the product does not mean you are entitled to demand the product, as the product belongs to the company until it delivers it, only the company can divert the product to another customer.
They could take a hit and call their bluff by repaying the EU money with interest and say that as they have not delivered, and that the contract is now invalidated and therefore the company will not be supplying the product, that would leave the EU in very sticky position relying on Biontech and Maderna alone, and therefore inoculation rates would fall further, one of Germanies advisory bodies stating its not found to be effective with over 65's is as good as any reason to cancel the contract on it not being suitable for purpose.
That is not my understanding of contract law. I understand that to form a contract you need an offer an acceptance and a consideration. There appears to be all 3 in this case. If either party fails to deliver then there is a breach of contract and damages become payable. This would be a lot more than interest give that thousands might die and countries suffer from extended economic damage..
It all depends on the specific wording of contracts but without that information I don't see a clear answer. This is pure speculation.
I do see why the EU did what they did to protect the smaller EU countries. The very unfortunate bit was that it caused delay which might or might not be relevant to the problem. Again whether this matters depends on the contracts signed which I can well imagine were lengthy and complicated documents. It is not impossible that 2 contracts were signed which conflicted with each other. We will see.
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Agree with your thinking Tug about the other guy. I suspect that it is a combination of an unwieldy large organization with a few checks on the sleazy politicians (we have them too). But in the end they came to the party 3 months late and the best deals were all taken.
regards
Roy
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.................................. But in the end they came to the party 3 months late and the best deals were all taken.
regards
Roy
That is one of the things what some very expensive lawyers will be arguing about. Personally I believe that if a politician is speaking they are probably at least bending the truth so I am far from convinced about anybody's case.
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For a contract to make sense it should include a specific date for performance . The contract copy I have seen with the EU posted on line has had the performance dates redacted. This to me means that the EU have a problem with the contract dates and they are indulging in some tricky footwork
(https://www.modelboatmayhemimages.co.uk/images/2021/01/29/_116726606_contract2.png.jpg) (https://www.modelboatmayhemimages.co.uk/image/a0On2)
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Redacted bits, whole sections 1 to 5.1 missing and who knows if we have all of 5.4. We certainly don't have 5.5 on. The bits that they have published do appear to support the EU view but then they would..............
Doesn't convince me of anything except their desperation to get vaccine.
We have no idea at all what is in the UK contract & it might well be wise to keep it that way as the EU probably doesn't know the full details either.
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Well what a mess the last 24hrs has been.
Clearly panic in the European Commission to deal with a problem that is largely of their own making.
The events of yesterday evening re Ireland are hard to believe.
Politicians (particularly Macron) are playing to the gallery as usual.
Have we ever been truly friends with the French as a nation or do we just tolerate each other (most of the time) and why do I like the individual French people that I know despite this?
What a pity so much of our food and other trade is through French ports.
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I wondered when the froggies would seek retribution for Mers El Kebir.
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Yes, Macron is behind a lot of this. He is unpopular in France and up for election soon and it is by no means certain things will go his way so he needs to throw his weight around a bit. He is also feeling humiliated that the French vaccine that he backed has turned out to be a non starter and the French company is going to manufacture (or bottle) the Pfizer vaccine instead. It's all an affront to La Belle France in his eyes so now he is trying to rubbish use of the Astrazeneca vaccine for the over 60s with his wild statements. 'Take that! Perfidious Albion!'
It was Macron's unltateral action in closing the border with the UK that brought about the lorry crisis just before Christmas. The rest of the EU forced him to back off.
It's bad when one man's ego can have so much malign influence.
In any event, the French are very suspicious of vaccines as a nation. They prefer remedies that can be inserted where the sun don't shine.
Colin
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All this is a wonderful example of why I don't like politicians and treat everything that they say as at best a half truth.
Boris has lots of a British made/developed vaccine so you can guarantee that he is going to tell us that it is wonderful (nearly as wonderful as customs forms).
Macron has a lot of demand but no French vaccine and very little British Vaccine so he is going to rubbish the British vaccine and praise the Pfizer vaccine that he soon hopes to have some of.
They are both following one of the permanent politicians rules "Never let the facts get in the way of a story that you want to sell".
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Interesting that around the world there are now , apart from the 5 proven vaccines in deployment 236 other vaccines in development.
171 in pre-clinical trials
19 in stage 1 small scale safety trials
25 in stage 2 expanded safety trials
21 in stage 3 wider testing and efficacy assessment
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This is becoming rather political, so please keep the forum guidelines in mind.
Peter Fitness, moderator.
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Is French politics OK Peter? It's a national UK pastime. %)
Colin
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Peter
The tricky bit is how do you discuss something where the narrative is being dictated by politicians without being told it is political?
This is not party political but rather trying to sort the lies from the half truths and from the nearly truths.
There seems to have been a real effort by some Europeans to diminish the Oxford vaccine which is of enormous concern to most of us on the forum who will be, or already have, received it.
I don't know how big a story this is in Australia but it is enormous here.
Having said all that I hear what you are saying & I apologise if I have gone too near the line
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Yes, our Media in OZ has just picked up the ball being 'the supply of the main two manufacturers product', when low & behold Johnson&Johnson are today reported as able to supply a one-shot jab that is ~~60% OK :o
[thanks for the correction Colin.....I have revised this with some other comments
I somehow think the Astra Pfizer blend which requires -70C storage will not really be suitable to our Australian temperatures & environmental distances between facilities that can maintain such storage.....
There is also reported which cost differential between the two main contenders [it is also the Oxford varient that is 1/8 ?? the cost of Pfizer]
I understand our Moderator Peters direction to keep Politics out, however it is really a little difficult to express our views with the questionable statements [lies & 1/2 truths] being sprouted by the Politicians.......my faith of fact is still Dr Norman Swan
We in [OZ] are also rather fortunate that it is now 10 days of ZERO 'new' case of COVID-19 was found & reported...having said this Indonesia is only a rifle shot away from Darwin, & the Indonesians have reported 1,000,000+ cases of COVID infections & ~~30,000- deaths?]
On a personal note, we have recently achieved the process in having our Illawarra Live Steamers registered as Holders of a COVID Safety Plan
...and I would prefer not to comment further >>:-(
Derek
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Derek, it is the Pfizer vaccine that requires deep freeze, the Astrazeneca one can be kept in the fridge with the beer.
Colin
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Is French politics OK Peter? It's a national UK pastime. %)
Colin
After all we call them froggies (Frogs) ! they call us les rostbeefs
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Is French politics OK Peter? It's a national UK pastime. %)
Colin
I realise that Colin, as long as a modicum of decorum is maintained :D
As Derek Warner mentioned, we're very aware of the situation here, and the EU's seemingly dog in the manger attitude towards releasing vaccine supplies to countries outside the Union.
Peter.
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But of course Peter! In the meantime things seem to have calmed down a bit thankfully.
I love France and have always found the people very friendly during our numerous visits over the years but I don't think their politicians really like us very much. Too much top level rivalry perhaps, although they do seem to appreciate our military support in a Europe which, other than them and us, is in a rather weak state to say the least. It is a complicated relationship and always has been.
Colin
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The political relationship between Britain and France seems very similar to that between New South Wales and Queensland. Queensland was proclaimed a colony separate from NSW in 1959, and have been trying to prove their superiority to us ever since. With the exception of Rugby League they haven't yet succeeded {-)
I love the people of Queensland, it's just their politicians and journalists I dislike >>:-(
Peter.
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The BMA and the Lancet are open sourced for anything Covid related at the moment. Including information on the new protein Not a bad pay per jab.
Mamma always said Politicians are like babies nappies.
Keep well and safe
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00258-0/fulltext
https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/vaccines/covid-19-vaccination-programme
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Except that relationship has been going on since before you lot even existed no comparison
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Except that relationship has been going on since before you lot even existed no comparison
At least 4500 years! :} Since the 'Beaker people' invaded.
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Mamma always said Politicians are like babies nappies.
Yes - they stink , they're full of crap and need changing often. :-))
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Very interesting article on how effective is one dose of vaccine.
Summary: Much better than nothing but don't rely on it. It should help the NHS but it won't guarantee that you are safe.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose)
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Yes, an interesting article but I agree with you that it will be a while before we are out of the wood yet. Hopefully things will become clearer once the effects of the current vaccination programme are felt and more data is available. In the meantime we have not renewed our travel insurance for this year!
Obviously it is also very important to establish whether, if you still become infected after just one jab, the severity of the disease is reduced. If so, and with the new treatments now being used and tested, the death and seriously ill rates might come down considerably.
A lot of people seem to be regarding the vaccination as a 'get out of jail free' card but it's nothing of the sort. Some implications for the suggested 'vaccination passports' there I think.
Colin
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I go for my stabbining in an hours time - just thought you would like to know.
LB
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I am interested to know what is going to happen when the 12 weeks 2nd doses become due. Unless they can ramp up vaccination numbers there won't be any slots available for 1st doses for 12 weeks until the backlog is cleared.
Unless they extend the 12 weeks......................................
I haven't seen any suggestion that we will be getting lots more doses available by April/May. As the 2nd dose is supposed to be the same vaccine as the first 1st time recipients April - June might be getting different vaccines to those currently being given.
Pure speculation but, I think, interesting.
LB
I hope that it goes well for you. Remember that it appears that don't get any protection for around 3 weeks.
Colin
We haven't renewed our travel insurance either. Actually we need a new provider as our previous insurer, BUPA, has left the travel medical insurance market.
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First stabbing complete was first one in - next one in twelve weeks; final year student did the job and we had a chat about marine photography while he was doing it.
LB
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First stabbing complete was first one in - next one in twelve weeks; final year student did the job and we had a chat about marine photography while he was doing it.
LB
Did he mention anything about a Negative result
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Tug my 12 week one is due March 16th though had no information on that yet.There is no urgency as that will be in the queue until the next ''Britain is First To'' Headline grabber is decided on who gets what/when.
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Did he mention anything about a Negative result
I doubt if he was old enough to know what it would mean in that context :}
LB
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Alas true LB
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Well I assume that Covid is no longer around in London !!
Sunday walkers pay little attention to social distancing in London's packed parks (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/video/viral/sunday-walkers-pay-little-attention-to-social-distancing-in-london-s-packed-parks/vi-BB1dg6C9?ocid=msedgntp)
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This attitude is common everywhere. I think that people are so sick of lock downs etc that they are ignoring rules, rules that are in place for their own protection, and the protection of others. I completely understand how some people must feel, but we all must take the long term view, otherwise Covid will be with us forever. It may indeed be with us forever anyway, regardless of what measures are taken, but at least we can help minimise the effects by observing the guidelines.
Peter.
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This attitude is common everywhere. I think that people are so sick of lock downs etc that they are ignoring rules, rules that are in place for their own protection, and the protection of others. I completely understand how some people must feel, but we all must take the long term view, otherwise Covid will be with us forever. It may indeed be with us forever anyway, regardless of what measures are taken, but at least we can help minimise the effects by observing the guidelines.
Peter.
So do I.
Self entitled, ignorant, no social responsibility, uncaring and self obsessed are all words/phrases that come immediately to mind. I am sure that I could think of other words/phrases given a little time.
There are no valid excuses. I cannot believe that any responsible and caring member of society would ignore even the most basic distancing rules at this time ............ and as for party goers..............
When I compare this situation with what the people had to endure in the World Wars (both at home and in service) what is being asked of us here seems so little.
If I was front line in this situation I really would wonder if it was worth it when I see the total disregard of even basic rules and good manners exhibited by some in the current situation.
I equate what they are doing with attempted negligent manslaughter. There have been repeated calls for tough penalties for drivers who ignore the law in a way which results in the death of a third party. As these people really any different?
I had better hold my tongue there.
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Is Sweden still in total lockdown and economy destruction mode?
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I equate what they are doing with attempted negligent manslaughter. There have been repeated calls for tough penalties for drivers who ignore the law in a way which results in the death of a third party. As these people really any different?
I think that’s a very valid question TF.
Peter.
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It would be very difficult to tie a specirfic death to this sort of behaviour but the comparison with driving is a good one, these people are committing the equivalent of dangerous driving whether or not it results in a death.
I do wonder how many people are actually paying the fines they have been given.
Colin
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As a general point of observation regarding the huddled masses in London Parks. In London there are about 25,000 ha of accessible open spaces and parks . The population of London is about 9 million not counting those here on vacation and illegally. That means that if you spread them out evenly over the whole of the greenery they would still only be 5m apart. Given the inevitability of pinch points it is no wonder there are cases of social undistancing, especially as they have been told to get some exercise but will fined if the travel to do it.
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Report on the BBC today:
And on Scotland's highest mountain, two climbers had to be rescued and have been fined for breaking Scotland's lockdown rules.
The men had travelled more than 100 miles (161km) from the Glasgow area to tackle Ben Nevis, near Fort William in the Highlands.
They got into difficulty in a gully on Saturday afternoon and had to be rescued by helicopter by Inverness Coastguard and members of the local mountain rescue team.
Police Scotland said there were no injuries and both were fined for breaching Covid regulations.
Colin
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I hope the helicopter hauled them out on a VERY long rope, to ensure they stayed 'socially distanced' from the crew of course. :-)
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I hope the helicopter hauled them out on a VERY long rope, to ensure they stayed 'socially distanced' from the crew of course. :-)
I wonder if they use a Robinson R44 :-))
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I do wish that news media would consider more realistically what they say.
There is a story this morning about a mass screening for the South African variant and of course it reports that there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of current vaccines re this strain.
It concludes by saying that if current vaccines are not effective we should not to worry as a new vaccine can be developed very quickly.
Reality check: The shortest time in which an updated vaccine could be got to market is currently 6 months. The UK variant has only been around for 3 months & look at the havoc that it has caused. Also all those people who will have been vaccinated before that 6 months is up will need revaccinating. That is most of the population.
You can easily see why getting on top of the virus to limit the number of opportunities it has to mutate into something new is so important. If the world doesn't limit the number of mutations then once a year jabs may well not be enough. The virus will outmutate our ability to respond.
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I do wish that news media would consider more realistically what they say.
There is a story this morning about a mass screening for the South African variant and of course it reports that there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of current vaccines re this strain.
It concludes by saying that if current vaccines are not effective we should not to worry as a new vaccine can be developed very quickly.
Reality check: The shortest time in which an updated vaccine could be got to market is currently 6 months. The UK variant has only been around for 3 months & look at the havoc that it has caused. Also all those people who will have been vaccinated before that 6 months is up will need revaccinating. That is most of the population.
You can easily see why getting on top of the virus to limit the number of opportunities it has to mutate into something new is so important. If the world doesn't limit the number of mutations then once a year jabs may well not be enough. The virus will outmutate our ability to respond.
So what that basically means is no matter what you do, you're going to get it - or a version of it - so what is the point of a lockdown? The whole population of the world locked in their houses forever to avoid a disease that most people need to be tested to even know they have it. All seems very sensible.
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So what that basically means is no matter what you do, you're going to get it - or a version of it - so what is the point of a lockdown? The whole population of the world locked in their houses forever to avoid a disease that most people need to be tested to even know they have it. All seems very sensible.
That is the complete reverse of what I am saying. The only way to beat this is to reduce the number of people who have it so that the virus has less chance to mutate, and it thus becomes more controllable because vaccines remain effective for much longer.
We need the best lockdown possible that vastly reduces the number of people who have it but at the same time does as little economic damage as possible. This needs to be done worldwide.
Viruses have had billions or years to develop a strategy to succeed and they are very good at it. This is war.
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That is the complete reverse of what I am saying. The only way to beat this is to reduce the number of people who have it so that the virus has less chance to mutate, and it thus becomes more controllable because vaccines remain effective for much longer.
We need the best lockdown possible that vastly reduces the number of people who have it but at the same time does as little economic damage as possible. This needs to be done worldwide.
Viruses have had billions or years to develop a strategy to succeed and they are very good at it. This is war.
And by keeping everyone locked up and covered in Dettol, you are deliberately reducing their immune systems - so they become more susceptible to everything.
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My neighbours are still having their parties, NHS nurse, fireman etc. I think the same as mentioned above about the dangerous driving comparison. They just dont give a.....
They are still talking on facebook about how people should stick to the restrictions as the wards are filling up. Beyond belief.
My shed is my only refuge from idiots, thats my excuse and I am sticking to it😁
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There are so many cases that they are dismantling the Nightingale hospitals.
I'm in and out of hospitals all the time - I get to see the reality and not the propaganda.
I understand that most of the people on this website are in the high-risk group so you are super-sensitive to the fear-porn - but shutting down the whole world is not the way to deal with this.
I can appreciate you wanting to lock yourself away to avoid anything - but the actual death risk to the healthy under 50s is not really worth destroying your country for.
Sorry if this is classed as too political - if so, please delete.
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I'm quite stunned as to some of the comments in this thread.
Last March I started as a healthy 49 year old who got a cough for a week and a half. I then suddenly struggled to breathe and have never been so scared that my time had come. Nearly 10 moths later, I am now a 50 year old who can't exert himself without becoming short of breath. My exercise outdoors is a gentle walk for perhaps 30minutes. If I go further, I suddenly & without warning can't breathe. Go faster & same result is quicker. Modelling is now more difficult as I have to be more careful of any vapours I inhale or I start coughing like death again. Steroids & Ventolin inhalers do nothing. Medical science can't help(for now, I hope).
Yes, lots of people get very few after affects but who knows if you will be one of them. Had my parents or Gran caught this instead of me then I would have been attending funerals.
This is not fear-porn, this is a reality. Nobody wants to be locked up but this is the way things are in an effort to reduce infections and potential deaths/long term damage to people. Even with the vaccine, you are still going to roll the dice and see what you end up with.
Rob
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Plastic
I obviously see things differently to you but what is your answer?
Ignore it & hope that it will go away or......................?
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Plastic
I obviously see things differently to you but what is your answer?
Ignore it & hope that it will go away or......................?
I think the lockdowns are ridiculous - I'm sorry that some people have had a hard time with covid but the Swedes seem to do perfectly fine without destroying everyone's jobs - look at the death rates - 'case' numbers are pretty irrelevant.
I think the fear-porn has done such a good job of terrifying the public that it's now almost a universal Stockholm Syndrome - how will you cope shaking hands with anyone ever again - they might have the lurgi - or had the 'wrong' vaccine or your vaccine may have been the 'wrong' one.
Being alive and locked in a box is not living. How long will you all put up with this?
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You still haven't told us what you would do.
You want to remove the lockdown but is there anything else that you want to add to that ?
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Plastic,
Having just watched Paul Freshney's funeral online I can assure you it isn't fear porn. He took precautions but was cut down at 68 just like that. I know of several others who have died and even more who have suffered badly from it. The Nightingales are not being used much because there is no reserve of NHS staff to operate them.
Having said that, just about all the people I know in my age group have been seni isolating since last Autumn, if not before and are continuing to do so. The huge increase in infections which is threatening th capacity of the NHS to cope is arising from the rest of the population with a significant minority not taking precautions and who are also passing it on to the older members of their families. As you will have seen on the news, it's not just older people requiring hospitalisation. Younger ones may be less likely to die but they still tie up hospital resources, perhaps more so than us geriatric over 70s who probably spend less time in hospital but don't make it back to their families!
The current policy is to vaccinate to prevent people who are most likely to get ill from getting ill and thereby relieving pressure on resources.
As far as Sweden is concerned, you are not up to date. Even they are now acknowledging that their policy has been a disaster story.
Colin
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Ok - not enough staff for Nightingales? - seriously - most outpatient departments are not seeing people - telephone only appointments so the 3 nurses per consultant are not occupied - so a couple of them are stuck in a portacabin outside manning the covid booth - so they are literally clapping for their own job to be outsourced.
Actually - no - I'm going no further with this - I can't answer without it becoming very, very political and getting deleted.
I understand your fears - I'm in the highest possible risk group - no immune system and having chemo - but I'll still get in a car and risk the 1 in 2000 chance of getting into an accident. I'll go for a walk up the road - I don't care if people come within 2" of me - I'm not so terrified that *everyone* is carrying the lurgi and terribly contagious - I'll still risk being hit by lightning and falling meteors.
Fear of death is really fear of living. I'm disappointed.
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Colin
I agree with what you are saying but I would add something. Around here the driver has often been food processing factories. There is something about this industry that seems to attract the problem. There may well be other industries that have similar problems. Perhaps a rethink of health & safety at work is needed. Not all transmission is via stupid recreation, refusal to wear masks etc .
Nothing that I am saying here reduces my horror at blatant disregard of basic protocols, such as social distancing and basic hygiene.
I believe that, without question, we are in a total war situation with this virus and that we need to win it. I admit that I don't think that some of our strategy has been optimal but I definitely don't believe that we can simply let the virus go & see what happens.
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Their was a bit of research on the news recently re. where were people catching the virus ? what were the sources which was keeping the current infection rate high ? They looked at supermarkets , public transport, schools ,hospitals , but NO. What their research led them to conclude was that it was none of these but was in fact people socialising, either within family groups or amongst friends and acquaintances . Apparently no matter how much you cajole them or try to scare the wits out of them with operation fear a large proportion of the community are impervious to such strictures
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As the saying goes "viruses love crowds".
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Almost everyone I've heard of testing positive got it from being in a hospital or in contact with someone in healthcare.
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Not all transmission is via stupid recreation, refusal to wear masks etc .
No, of course not, I agree there are hot spots and food processing centres here and abroad are known ones. Same with post office sorting centres where the staff all stand next to each other. Even the DVLA is a hot spot but I've not worked that one out! I think it does go to show that lack of social distancing and confined poorly ventilated spaces are a key drivers, wherever they occur. Some air conditioning systems are not well filtered either and many workplaces do not have opening windows.
Colin
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Now you can buy a fake test certificate to make your travel easier. <:( <:(
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-55890168 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-55890168)
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No, of course not, I agree there are hot spots and food processing centres here and abroad are known ones. Same with post office sorting centres where the staff all stand next to each other. Even the DVLA is a hot spot but I've not worked that one out! I think it does go to show that lack of social distancing and confined poorly ventilated spaces are a key drivers, wherever they occur. Some air conditioning systems are not well filtered either and many workplaces do not have opening windows.
Colin
The more effective the filtering in ventilation, the more power it consumes - and more regular maintenance.
Carbon filters are like sucking through a brick.
There's often a local cultural aspect to a lot of these hotspots.
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...................Even the DVLA is a hot spot but I've not worked that one out!.................
Colin
Neither have I.
Poor ventilation is very likely, or a staff canteen or a thousand other possibilities. I hope that work is being done to investigate things such as this. As I said changes to health & safety might well be needed.
As an aside on ventilation we were on a coach (in the old days when people did such things) when the driver suddenly went ballistic over the pa system. Someone on the coach had used an aerosol perfume and within seconds the whole coach stank. He demanded that no more aerosols be used. It could just as easily have been a Covid virus aerosol from someone coughing. I can feel a requirement for virus particle size filtering in recirculating ventilation systems being a requirement very soon. Funnily enough aircraft, which seem to be a popular blame situation, probably are not as bad as they normally already are well filtered.
Plastic
I hear what you are saying but I cannot accept that doing nothing is a good alternative. Everything has a cost but sometimes it is a cost that you need to bear even of it means spending a little less on something else that you would like.
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The latest major outbreak over here in coastal Suffolk was the Hollesley Bay open prison.Again restricted social distancing for obvious reasons but doesn't help the local stats.
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What annoys at times is the logo protect the NHS keep to the rules. Trouble is the local hospital QA in Portsmouth is very often full up this time of year. My wife last Feb went into with suspected Cardiac problem to A&E there, spent the night on a trolley at the back of A&E behind a cotton screen, having to put with screaming drunks etc. But when you look into it, the number of beds per capita is twice the number in Germany to here. Portsmouth once had 5 x hospitals, a big Victorian one sold for building on, St Marys another big hospital which straddled the road from Fratton to Southsea, St James a mental Hospital sold off for conversion into posh flats, all that was kept was the small one on the Hill called Queen Alexandra, that did have about ten large geriatric wards, when they enlarged with a PFI grant those wards were demolished and it has less beds. Now Southampton General has to pay Q.A a large cash sum each year along with Chichester and Winchester hospitals. When the RCN persuaded the government to abolish in house training of Nurses and put the training out to Hospitals for year 2000. The Government jumped at it, then people who got their degrees for some years were only short term contracts of 8,10 months, alot went else where such as police etc, which caused a shortage, with the NHS having to go oversea to recruit. So now the politicians have a perfect storm caused by some years of salami cutting.
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What annoys at times is the logo protect the NHS keep to the rules. Trouble is the local hospital QA in Portsmouth is very often full up this time of year. My wife last Feb went into with suspected Cardiac problem to A&E there, spent the night on a trolley at the back of A&E behind a cotton screen, having to put with screaming drunks etc. But when you look into it, the number of beds per capita is twice the number in Germany to here. Portsmouth once had 5 x hospitals, a big Victorian one sold for building on, St Marys another big hospital which straddled the road from Fratton to Southsea, St James a mental Hospital sold off for conversion into posh flats, all that was kept was the small one on the Hill called Queen Alexandra, that did have about ten large geriatric wards, when they enlarged with a PFI grant those wards were demolished and it has less beds. Now Southampton General has to pay Q.A a large cash sum each year along with Chichester and Winchester hospitals. When the RCN persuaded the government to abolish in house training of Nurses and put the training out to Hospitals for year 2000. The Government jumped at it, then people who got their degrees for some years were only short term contracts of 8,10 months, alot went else where such as police etc, which caused a shortage, with the NHS having to go oversea to recruit. So now the politicians have a perfect storm caused by some years of salami cutting.
Absolutely. :-))
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Lots of mistakes have certainly been made but you start from where you are and not where you would like to be. Retribution will have to wait.
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Lots of mistakes have certainly been made but you start from where you are and not where you would like to be.
I had a manager that would always say that - it was easily translated into "I've screwed you over for the past 10 years but you have to forgive and forget so I can screw you over some more."
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Lots of mistakes have certainly been made but you start from where you are and not where you would like to be. Retribution will have to wait.
But it never happens.
Those responsible for the screw-ups always get away with it as they have mates who are 'up there'...... >:-o
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I tend to agree about retribution but we still have to start from where we are.
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The spread of the South African variant, with the uncertainty that existing vaccines are very effective, sounds like a big blow. The tests might slow down the spread but I am expecting will not stop it.
Why on earth did they ignore the Sage warnings seems ago?
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So don't forget the 2 Brazilian variants, Californian one and the dozens of others likely to be scattered to the winds and enter countries by the back doors. They'll appear here at some stage and the reactions will be as predictably slow as normal. Possibly right decisions but too late to be effective. Testing the populations of the "known" outbreak points is apparently of the "Here's the kit, please use it and we'll pop back later" routine. Don't upset anyone or force the issue because that's not how we do it in England.Perhaps we need to get a tad less used to that way?
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I’m no epidemiologist, but it’s safe to assume that this virus will mutate many times, after all, the common flu virus changes every year. This means that manufacturers are continually modifying their vaccines to keep up, so I would guess that Covid will be no different.
Peter.
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Peter
The literature would seem to agree with you.
The difficulty seems to be the speed at which the virus is mutating, encouraged by the enormous number of cases. This gives so much potential for mutation.
The virus, in the present environment, is mutating faster than it appears that we can, or a willing to, control it.
Lets hope that what the world is doing is enough to reduce the numbers infected by the required amount.
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With the ability of the virus to mutate and there being (as of yesterday) 11 people being detected without any links to travel - has it ever occurred to anyone that the SA mutation is not imported but home grown, likewise its ability to mutate means we could see the Brazilian variant through the natural mutation of the current variant
[/size][/color]
[/size]That said, so could any of the mutations found around the world, it could be home grown as its the same initial virus, there may be a time when it becomes a survival of the [/color][/size]fittest scenario, or natural selection, wiping out those that cannot live with it.[/color]
[/size]So welcome to our dinosaur moment[/color] :D
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With the ability of the virus to mutate and there being (as of yesterday) 11 people being detected without any links to travel - has it ever occurred to anyone that the SA mutation is not imported but home grown, likewise its ability to mutate means we could see the Brazilian variant through the natural mutation of the current variant.................... :D
Given the number of identification factors this, whilst never impossible, is extremely unlikely.
The new UK mutation reported this morning is definitely interesting.
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Oooh Just had a text to book mine !!!
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To those who have had the jab.
When do you find out which vaccine you are getting?
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To those who have had the jab.
When do you find out which vaccine you are getting?
All the people I know were told at the time.
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Had my vaccination on the 29th, all depends on which vaccine the clinic recieves that day, mine was the Pfizer one, no side effects :-))
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Easy one Tug there was only Pfizer when I had mine Ahem! back last year
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Thanks for the replies. A couple of locals say the same thing.
I will try &find out if different locations consistently get the same vaccine or whether on a particular day they all get the same - at least locally.
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We have two mass vaccination sites and they use two different versions. The wife had Pfizer. Still waiting for my notification.
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We have two mass vaccination sites and they use two different versions. The wife had Pfizer. Still waiting for my notification.
Sorry but I am not quite sure what you are saying.
Are you saying that you can effectively choose your vaccine by choosing where you receive it?
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I dont think you get a choice of venues or which vaccine, you should get contacted with which site you go to and what time, you should receive whatever vaccine the centre has been allocated that day (as far as Im aware)
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Report on the BBC today:
And on Scotland's highest mountain, two climbers had to be rescued and have been fined for breaking Scotland's lockdown rules.
The men had travelled more than 100 miles (161km) from the Glasgow area to tackle Ben Nevis, near Fort William in the Highlands.
They got into difficulty in a gully on Saturday afternoon and had to be rescued by helicopter by Inverness Coastguard and members of the local mountain rescue team.
Police Scotland said there were no injuries and both were fined for breaching Covid regulations.
Colin
It gets worse as the chopper was returning to base after taking them back it got redirected.Another two had got stuck up Creagh Meagaidh it was unsafe for the chopper to get them so it airlifted 8 members
of the rescue team up who then abseiled down and pulled them up.
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I dont think you get a choice of venues or which vaccine, you should get contacted with which site you go to and what time, you should receive whatever vaccine the centre has been allocated that day (as far as Im aware)
When I got my letter it directed me to a website to book an appointment. The site wanted my postcode, and then offered several choices. I went for the second nearest as that was the closest with a car park on site. I imagine that not many places have refrigeration equipment that goes down to Pfizer temperatures, so A-Z is going to be the one likely on offer.
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Thank you everybody. My question has been answered.
Good news that the Oxford Zeneca vaccine, and most likely the others as well, reduces the ability of the recipient to transmit the virus.
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Good news that the Oxford Zeneca vaccine, and most likely the others as well, reduces the ability of the recipient to transmit the virus.
Yes, President Macron WILL be pleased!
Colin
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I still believe that the mutations being seen are a natural thing for this virus, if it mutates on the spike protein in one location its called the Kent variant in another its referred to as the Brazilian and another the SA variant, so these new ones seen in Bristol and Liverpool will be a mutation in a different location of the spike protein and being seen there for the first time with be identified as such, so then, I believe that its not a imported strain, its a home grown natural progression of mutation as it tries to adapt to prevent being stopped.
This is my opinion and may not be a true reflection of the actual abilities of the virus unless born out by fact. :embarrassed:
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it appears, in my area at least, that different surgeries are allocated to different mass vaccination sites. The NHS are offering a drop in jab for their own staff, but we didn't get a choice of site or vaccine.
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In my area ,Tayside, those in care homes and housebound are being visited, while those who can travel go to vaccination centers. The center in Dundee has been set up in the town center Concert hall and appointments are made over the phone, they phone you to set it up. Got the call yesterday so go in tomorrow afternoon. ( 65 to 69 years old now being targeted.)
Jim
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it appears, in my area at least, that different surgeries are allocated to different mass vaccination sites. The NHS are offering a drop in jab for their own staff, but we didn't get a choice of site or vaccine.
This must differ by area and perhaps how many local centres exist, as I understand from those that have had the vaccine that they are being offered a choice of location.
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it appears, in my area at least, that different surgeries are allocated to different mass vaccination sites. The NHS are offering a drop in jab for their own staff, but we didn't get a choice of site or vaccine.
I think a lot of areas are the same , NHS and other front line are getting done at hospital sites where they can maintain the low storage temps for the Pfizer vaccine The plebs get to go to pop up large scale venues . We got the choice of 2, Epsom Downs Racecourse just down the road from us and ExCel centre in London Docklands, miles away in the centre of the congestion charging zone.
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Hi I was offered Epsom and Exxon and Bristol and Birmingham. You can see from my location, all a bit silly.
Contacted my surgery and they put me on their spares list and I was done that day else where in Watford. i was a fill in for the 6 spare doses they had.
Nice to know the A-Z vaccine has other advantages (so far).
Regards
Roy
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Have you been partaking in alcohol this morning Roy? %) ,...or is that just your wicked sense of humour? >>:-(
Epsom = reminds me of salts
Exxon = reminds me of the MV Exxon-Valdez oil spill
Bristol = made Bombers is WW11
Birmingham = I have forgotten what it was famous or infamous for :embarrassed:
I think the Alpha to Zulu name was an excellent choice and so easily to be abbreviated as AZ
Whereas the other name Pfizer reminds me of American fizzy soft drinks O0
..does Epson salts mixed into a liquid make a fizzy drink?.......that would certainly make for a concoction type EF [fizzy] injection
....and why pray tell insert a letter into a word that you don't pronounce?
....why not just write the first letter ' ' with invisible ink? {-)
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Hi Derek, I do enjoy a smile but this time it just came out, I blame my fingers!
There is an article in one our papers that says our Health minister saw the film "Contagion" and it was this that made him override the initial suggested buying of 30M AZ innoculations. He ordered 100M and we have many more on order. I think this might have been the 'injection' needed to get the companies into high production mode.
Latest here is to check if the second dose could be a different vaccine and then there is a further exercise to combine the Russian vaccine with the AZ one.
By the way I was looking at my old pictures and found one of me paddling in the sea at Wollongong, I did not realise I had been there. Must have been 4 years ago now.
My son tells me that Oz is watching events before committing to anything, is that your take on things?
All the best
Roy
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..does Epson salts mixed into a liquid make a fizzy drink?.......that would certainly make for a concoction type EF [fizzy] injection
Epsom salt doesn't make into a fizzy drink, but the results tend to be fizzy if you swallow any. Was one of the ingredients for Andrews Liver Salts, which was fizzy but dur more to the sodium bicarb and citric acid in the mix.
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Just got the call for mine for Monday at the local village hall. By all accounts it is very well organised. Mrs B will have to wait a few days longer as they are going by date of birth.
Colin
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Just had mine, booked for 9:20, out my 9:21 although you do have to wait for 15 minutes of observation , Centre I went to was well organised..
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Evening Roy....so glad you enjpyed your paddle in the sea at Wollongong all those years ago %) ........
I am pretty sure our OZ Government has recently ordered a few truck loads of the AZ brand.........
It also appears we are committed to pay for an earlier order of Fizzy brand....
[there is little point in being critical of what appeared to be a sound purchase made on the best advice available at the time]
A good idea would be to line up all of the those making ludicrous Political criticisms ....& give then a shot of the Fizzy {-) [size=78%].[/size][/size]....& then box up the leftovers into the big blue [size=78%][/size]ESKY[size=78%][/font][/size], then offer the leftovers [without cost] to any 3rd World Pacific Country that cannot yet afford such supportAt this stage, I will be hoping for the AZ variety if possibleDerek[size=78%]
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Lately the have been saying any version is better than none :embarrassed:
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Lately the have been saying any version is better than none :embarrassed:
Even later (today) they are saying a medley of different vaccines may be even better
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Even later (today) they are saying a medley of different vaccines may be even better
It would suit governments to find that it was at least nearly as good.
Chancellor this morning confirming government strategy is about keeping patient numbers to something NHS can cope with whilst experts want to contain virus. To me this is confirming that my health is my responsibility. The government just don't want pictures of queuing ambulances, people ill sitting on pavement, packed hospital wards etc. Not a good look & won't impress voters.
Was I always this cynical?
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It would suit governments to find that it was at least nearly as good.
Chancellor this morning confirming government strategy is about keeping patient numbers to something NHS can cope with whilst experts want to contain virus. To me this is confirming that my health is my responsibility. The government just don't want pictures of queuing ambulances, people ill sitting on pavement, packed hospital wards etc. Not a good look & won't impress voters.
Was I always this cynical?
Considering the total dogs dinner that the EU have made of vaccinations and virus control on the continent, has anyone changed their mind on Brexit? Perhaps dumping that bunch of bureaucratic numpties was not a bad move after all !
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Considering the total dogs dinner that the EU have made of vaccinations and virus control on the continent, has anyone changed their mind on Brexit? Perhaps dumping that bunch of bureaucratic numpties was not a bad move after all !
Please, please and please again can we keep Brexit out of this thread.
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At a certain juncture they become intertwined , especially when their lack of foresight endangers our vaccine arrangements. You may have noticed that the French have been casting aspersions on the efficacy of our Oxford AstraZeneca in older people, doubtless because they have not got theirs and their population are getting nasty
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I believe several of the smaller EU countries were going to order vaccines but were told to wait until the BIG decision had been made. Large bodies need more time to re-act.
I did vote to remain but am coming round to acceptance of where we are but I do see the general EU response to the UK leaving as being punishing.
Further more they did show their true colours over Ireland and lack of vaccine and had to change their mind. But I ask myself who made such a quick decision? Not in their normal nature of pontificating and navel watching. It is the size of the EU with all that burocracy which slows decision making and makes even simple changes so difficult. As far as re-acting quickly there are too many different poltical agendas to do anything but trade favours.
But at the other end of the spectrum, look at the USA for example.
The two major parties are so entrenched in their beliefs it has become a way of life for many and an excuse for some to behave badly.
I heard the Governor of Michigan say they had 55 million doses of vaccine but no distribution program under the previous regime. There, with extreme views bent on simply stopping the other party from enacting their policies is the ultimate Them and Us situation.
Maybe the UK's somewhat laidback view on politics makes some sense, we just have to remove the likes of some senior political advisors (no names!) and let the old Etonians have their last stand with the Grammar school boys.
Giving our own Health minister his due he overrode the scientific advice of ordering 30M and ordered 100M vaccine doses. The Daily Mail would have it that he was influenced by seeing the film "Contagion" So hooray for Hollywood!
Regards
Roy
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Does anybody have any thought on why vaccination levels start low each Sunday and go up every day until they peak on the following Saturday and then halve on Sunday then repeat the pattern each week.
It gives a lovely sawtooth chart but why? I know it is something to do with supply but what?
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Sunday trading!
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Can we leave British Exit out of the debate please? Some of us have been campaigning hard to keep the UK together itself for 6+ years (nay, decades+) now despite those who still disbeleive the last democratic vote north of the border. We need to work together on this as the UK as a whole.
Frankly, I'm just amazed how this is apparently a model boat forum with very tighly controlled content but so much but talk on this is allowed so far!
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Does anybody have any thought on why vaccination levels start low each Sunday and go up every day until they peak on the following Saturday and then halve on Sunday then repeat the pattern each week.
It gives a lovely sawtooth chart but why? I know it is something to do with supply but what?
The number of reported cases follows the same pattern. I suspect it's something to do with there being nobody in the office noting numbers over the weekend. After the weekend, you get the weekend total suddenly included.
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?
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Please, please and please again can we keep Brexit out of this thread.
What on earth for? There is little enough fun as it is.....
LB
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The number of reported cases follows the same pattern. I suspect it's something to do with there being nobody in the office noting numbers over the weekend. After the weekend, you get the weekend total suddenly included.
Clearly someone in the office doesn't want to give up there weekends to go socializing %)
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Clearly someone in the office doesn't want to give up there weekends to go socializing %)
Sudden 'spikes' are great for stoking the fear porn.
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Sudden 'spikes' are great for stoking the fear porn.
Which is exactly why they give 7 day moving averages. One day figures only fools idiots including headline writers.
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The news this morning is confusing. Oxford Zeneca are reporting that their vaccine has limited protection against the South African variant and might prevent serious illness for all.
Given how viruses work we can expect, I think, such mutations to become dominant and we will all need another vaccine in due course. This is one of the reasons why the world has got to reduce the number of people giving the virus chance to mutate. In a simple race we will never win.
The Pfizer vaccine has, of course, also reported reduced effectiveness.
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The NHS has already placed future contracts for vaccines to provide annual re-vaccination up to 2025, with no intention of stopping then. It is not just an order for the vaccine, it includes bottles, syringes, packaging and production lines specifically the for U.K.
The actual vaccine will be modified whenever necessary to match new variants; Oxford anticipate a modified vaccine 3 times a year if necessary.
We already do exactly this for the Flu vaccine, but it can only be done in countries with a NHS type structure.
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Mrs B unexpectedly leapfrogged me and had hers this morning at 8:15. Mine is due tomorrow but the Beast from the East has just arrived and I hope it won't be too beastly in the morning...
Colin
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The NHS has already placed future contracts for vaccines to provide annual re-vaccination up to 2025, with no intention of stopping then. It is not just an order for the vaccine, it includes bottles, syringes, packaging and production lines specifically the for U.K.
The actual vaccine will be modified whenever necessary to match new variants; Oxford anticipate a modified vaccine 3 times a year if necessary.
We already do exactly this for the Flu vaccine, but it can only be done in countries with a NHS type structure.
Yes we are in it for the long term.
Do they really change the flu vaccine up to 3 times a year? I had thought that they chose the strain that they thought would be dominant for each winter & made the vaccine accordingly. Mostly they guess right but occasionally they get it wrong and the vaccine isn't very effective.
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Mrs B unexpectedly leapfrogged me and had hers this morning at 8:15. Mine is due tomorrow but the Beast from the East has just arrived and I hope it won't be too beastly in the morning...
Colin
I am hoping the same about our groceries delivery!
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No way am I going to wash the car !
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Yes we are in it for the long term.
Do they really change the flu vaccine up to 3 times a year? I had thought that they chose the strain that they thought would be dominant for each winter & made the vaccine accordingly. Mostly they guess right but occasionally they get it wrong and the vaccine isn't very effective.
The Flu virus mutates constantly, each annual Flu shot consists of a mixture of vaccines targeted at the 3, or 4 most common Flu variants.
SARS variants such as Covid will not be eliminated this century, so we will have to learn to live with it.
After all, Flu already kills up to 20,000 people in the UK every winter and no-one stays locked up at home because of that.
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The Flu virus mutates constantly, each annual Flu shot consists of a mixture of vaccines targeted at the 3, or 4 most common Flu variants.
SARS variants such as Covid will not be eliminated this century, so we will have to learn to live with it.
After all, Flu already kills up to 20,000 people in the UK every winter and no-one stays locked up at home because of that.
Absolutely. How long are people prepared to 'live' like this?
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Given how viruses work we can expect, I think, such mutations to become dominant and we will all need another vaccine in due course. This is one of the reasons why the world has got to reduce the number of people giving the virus chance to mutate.
Jonathan Van Tam - "Early evidence suggests the South African variant does not have “a distinct transmissibility advantage over our current virus”. Means there’s no reason to believe it will become dominant here."
But you are the expert. I think most people expect this to be an annual thing initially though. Science is still catching up with the virus.
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The Flu virus mutates constantly, each annual Flu shot consists of a mixture of vaccines targeted at the 3, or 4 most common Flu variants.
SARS variants such as Covid will not be eliminated this century, so we will have to learn to live with it.
After all, Flu already kills up to 20,000 people in the UK every winter and no-one stays locked up at home because of that.
But we have grown up with these - just as we accept cars hurtling towards each other at a closing speed 120mph, separated by only a painted line.
With something new, the precautions will be far more extreme. There will always be another mutation (several thousand so far) and another expert happy to have their 15 minutes on TV claiming that we must never exit lockdown and anyone who says otherwise is a murderer. The Lancet considered the effects of vaccines and suggested this was the "new normal" back in October, and I still see no reason to disbelieve them.
As for how long people will "live" like this - I personally know one who decided they couldn't, and anecdotally, several others. They decided that they envied the dead and did something about it. It may well be that the government decides that they should facilitate this as we can't pay furlough money forever, and that means 6 million+ whose jobs simply no longer exist. It's unlikely society could stand that level of unemployment. There are 8 million single-person households in the UK. If you encourage those without children (including me) to "do their civic duty", then that would solve a lot of those problems.
(And before someone says the government would never say that - 100 years ago, the option for many young men was run at German machine guns, or be shot for cowardice by your own side)
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I find that Jonathan Van Tam gives a measured and convincing assessement of the situation, unlike the politicians and often hysterical press.
It makes sense to have the current vaccinations which are targeted on the current threat. If we can have a booster in the Autumn which is aimed at the most dangerous variants then that is all to the good.
It is a messy situation and there are no easy answers except to keep abreast of scientific developments and manage your personal risks accordingly. I can live with the risk of getting ill as long as it isn't lilkely to cause severe illness or death which is pretty much the situation we already live with in respect of flu.
Like many people I miss my foreign holidays but if that is off the agenda then freedom of movement within the UK is not so dreadful. That is the situation in Australia and New Zealand.
Mrs B and I have just had our Astra Zeneca jabs and are grateful for them and grateful as well to the vaccination task forces and volunteers that have made it possible. The volunteers in our local car park by the vaccination centre have been standing there in driving rain, freezing conditions and now snow showers for a week or more and I am profoundly grateful to each and every one of them.
Colin
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Booster dose in the Autumn wishful thinking the backlog of people waiting for their 2nd dose is already piling up. mine should have been Jan 16th with the 12 week delay it should now be around the 12 March.Not a peep coming out about dates though
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I think you are being rather pessimistic Jaymac.
Still plenty of time for you to be given a March date. Plus it is possible that the 12 week delay may be extended in the light of recent evidence. The emphasis is still very much on initial vaccinations at the moment.
As long as supplies are available the vaccinations are holding up very well.
Colin
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The GP rang me at 4pm today - there's a spare shot waiting for me right then and there........errrrr - no thanks. I'm in the middle of chemotherapy and I had a burn-up of 39.4 degrees for 3 hours a few nights ago - I don't really want to challenge my body with anything else right now.
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Pessimistic nope Colin just doing the math I may well be wrong as might be most of the doom and gloom that is the trend on most of the posts.They have also bottled out on just using a mix for the 2nd which would have made it easier to fit people in and gave another We were first headline. Agreed they are doing well with the program for the first but autumn boosts we'll see. What date did you get for your second?
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I have come to a conclusion. This isn't doom and gloom it is a positive decision.
I am due my vaccination in the next week or so and I am going to hold out for a Pfizer vaccine. I will refuse an Oxford vaccine even if I cannot find out that I am receiving it until I am at the vaccination centre. Ever since data was first released the numbers have looked better for Pfizer and the South African numbers (although provisional) are the last straw. If the South African, and other, mutations find an advantage they will use it. A large proportion of the population being less immune to it than is true for other mutations is just such an advantage.
I can understand the government position. They want to protect the NHS & get the country back to school & work. They have got a lot of the Oxford vaccine and it will help achieve their aims. They can promise a top up in the autumn & they need us to believe it is all, with great care, just fine.
My position is different and about me as an individual. Other than for exercise (including standing alone by the village pond) and an emergency visit to the dentist I haven't been out of the house since last Easter. I want to feel, & actually be, safe when I do go out and the Oxford vaccine simply isn't going to achieve that for me. Flag waving about "British" vaccines & assertions that it probably reduces serious illness and death with the variants just don't cut it.
Promises of a top up vaccine that will be delivered in the autumn - probably in the same order as the first vaccine - mean that I wouldn't get it until October - November. Another 8 months being locked up.
I know that some older recipients were reported as refusing the Pfizer vaccine as they wanted "the British one". I wonder how many, if any, serious shielders will agree with me?
I will be interested to hear what the WHO says later in the week although it won't change my mind.
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The staff at vaccination centres are trying to jab a lot of people very quickly. This is a numbers game.
If everyone who turns up wants to argue about the type of vaccine, then demand to be jabbed in the car park and dozen other things, then they will struggle to process anything like the numbers we are told are required to get the country back to normal. My local centre are processing 30 people an hour. Now imagine each of those wants to have a "discussion" about the science. You'd be lucky to do four. That's a difference of over 200 per day in that once small centre. A thousand a week.
Anyone is welcome to refuse a jab and stay at home until things return to normal. Just remember that IMHO opinion*, that means you stay at home forever as there will always be another mutation, another stain. If that suits you, then great.
If you chose to make the decision at the centre, then that's a load of time hard-working staff and volunteers need to spend trying to change your mind - and they will do because they want you to be protected. That stops other people getting their jab and the protection it provides.
Personally, I'll take what's on offer.
*Obviously, I'm no expert, but then I don't think anyone else here is.
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I had mine yesterday, the Oxford one. So did Mrs B. Had a bit of a reaction overnight with painful joints and fluish symptoms when I woke up this morning but they have pretty much subsided now. Both of us feel slightly under the weather at the moment but they warn you about that.
I agree with Phil, I think the only way you can 'choose' which one you get is if you are invited by your local surgery and also get a letter from th NHS inviting you to book in at a regional centre and the two are offering different vaccines. Don't assume that your local surgery will be the Oxford one. Two friends of mine were offered jabs separately, she got Pfizer at the local place, he got the Oxford one at Epsom Racecourse. The NHS have stated that you take what is on offer, you don't get a choice. Half a loaf is better than none.
After three weeks I think I will feel safer as long as the South African mutation doesn't take over but I don't think anyone can really feel totally safe for a long while yet. When we were in tier 2 last year we were happy to drive down to the coast, visit garden centres and go for country walks, all with social distancing, and with the Oxford vaccine I think that will become safer as long as there are no serious mutations. Foreign travel will be out for a long time yet but maybe a hotel break in the Isle of Wight....
In the meantime I think the Government have seriously dropped the ball yet again in allowing all and sundry to enter the country and not even attempting to keep tabs on them isolating. They are still taking forever to get a grip on this and I think there are a lot of people flouting the regulations with impunity.
Colin
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My position is different and about me as an individual. Other than for exercise (including standing alone by the village pond) and an emergency visit to the dentist I haven't been out of the house since last Easter. I want to feel, & actually be, safe when I do go out and the Oxford vaccine simply isn't going to achieve that for me. Flag waving about "British" vaccines & assertions that it probably reduces serious illness and death with the variants just don't cut it.
Promises of a top up vaccine that will be delivered in the autumn - probably in the same order as the first vaccine - mean that I wouldn't get it until October - November. Another 8 months being locked up.
I know that some older recipients were reported as refusing the Pfizer vaccine as they wanted "the British one". I wonder how many, if any, serious shielders will agree with me?
I will be interested to hear what the WHO says later in the week although it won't change my mind.
I too have been shielding since last March.
Yesterday I had my 1st vaccine dose at Llandudno's mass vaccination centre and during a wait the centre manager walked through answering questions as he went. He was explicit that because of logistics, the Mass Centres use the Pfizer vaccine and smaller centres use the Astra one.
You do not get a choice, they only provide one type at each centre. people who refused yesterday were told to leave and phone the appointment hotline.
You need to phone the vaccine appointments hotline now and confirm which type of vaccine is available where and alter your appointment accordingly.
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He was explicit that because of logistics, the Mass Centres use the Pfizer vaccine and smaller centres use the Astra one.
Usually I would imagine, but not the case for my friends yesterday as mentioned above.
Colin
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The concern about the African variant was that not based on AZ results in Africa.If so and African type is deemed more subsceptible to the virus than Whites wonder who was the survey done on.
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I look at it this way - no vaccine is 100% effective. Most are in the 60%-80% range and that is sufficient to stop a major health crisis and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Any protection is, in my view, worth having. It will probably stop you from being infected, if you are infected it will probably reduce the severity of your symptoms and if you do get really ill, the capacity will be there to treat you in a timely and effective way.
Yes, there will continue to be deaths from COVID (and flu, and other viruses), but society will regain the ability to operate in the way we wish. The vaccination is as much for the good of others as it is for each individual.
Of course, every individual is free to refuse vaccination. But I am tempted to ask if those individuals will feel equally free to refuse hospital treatment should they succumb to infection. I guess not!
Stay safe everyone!
Greg
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Each to his own. I will try & find out which vaccine they are offering where but that might or might not work.
Arguments such as that this won't be the last mutation carry no weight with me. You start from where you are & progress from there. To my eye the Pfizer is the better place to start.
I plan on not needing hospital whatever happens as if I don't feel protected I won't be going anywhere to catch anything.
Kinmel
Around here the reverse seems to be true. I have asked everyone that I know where they had it & what they had. The big local vaccination centre seems to be Oxford and the smaller more local centre Pfizer but, of course, that might all change tomorrow.
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Hi all, on TV last night there was an item on the way the covid virus has mutated. It has passed the 2000 different mutations now so we must expect it to have many that fell by the wayside and some that will be more difficult to deal with. Time will tell and has been said a jab is better than no jab.
The dangerous ones are those which cross from the animal kingdom to humans and there have been quite a few.
Roy
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Down for mine for tomorrow morning. Whatever variety it may be
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I took my mother for her Oxford jab yesterday. I phoned her this morning to check on her and nothing to report. :-))
It was the first day of public vaccinations at Elland Road FC and all the staff on in and around the site were excellent in extremely cold conditions. Many of the crew inside were military medics. I must commend the patience and understanding of the reception staff given the very elderly clientele
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From todays news it would appear that things are not going so swimmingly with our EU neighbour.
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20210210-coronavirus-pandemic-in-france-facing-shortages-centers-forced-to-delay-vaccinations
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No, I have some contacts over there and it all seems to be a bit of a shambles. Not helped by a large minority being vaccination refuseniks.
Colin
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Down for mine for tomorrow morning. Whatever variety it may be
Just back from getting the jab. Turned out to be the AtraZeneca version. Both before the injection and in the leaflet you are given after, they reel off a list of the likely or possible side effects. Now sitting back home with a cup of coffee chilling out and seeing if any of the side effects kick in! Think that I need to get out more {-) .
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Now sitting back home with a cup of coffee chilling out and seeing if any of the side effects kick in!
Well, if you start hearing voices in your head you are probably tuning in to 5G mobile phome transmissions...
Colin
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Well, if you start hearing voices in your head you are probably tuning in to 5G mobile phome transmissions...
Colin
In which case you need to phome hone .
Two weeks on from my jab I seem to be suffering a degree of skin irritation , itching in the unmentionables. Wonder if this is an after effect, anyone else had this ? (astra zeneca )
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I have heard of other reasons for itching in the unmentionables %) %) %) .
We have a couple of locals who have had virtually every possible side effect listed - but then they always do.
Many seem to know that they have had it but 24hrs later are fine. This isn't a very high price.
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50 hours since my Pfizer injection, only symptom was a dull ache at the injection site and that had cleared up by this morning.
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I have been invited to a central facility to have mine (i'm sub 60 %) ) for next week, I expect that I will succumb to the worst of the side effects, i'm lucky like that >>:-( , at least I am furloughed till the end of next month.
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It’s certainly getting quicker- my Mum got her invite last night for next Thursday and she she is under 65. Didn’t expect to get called up until April. I’m the only one left in my family who won’t have had one and probably won’t until May or June.
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Having had my jab we now come to the tricky bit.
I know that it will not have any effect for 3 weeks and after that the result is uncertain so what is my plan to try and get back some sort of a normal life whilst at the same time minimising risk? I am sure that this comes in stages certainly until 2nd jab + 3 weeks from now and very much depends on the overall situation. A year of shielding is a hard act to follow.
This is totally independent of what Boris & friends say.
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Had mine yesterday no adverse effects so far not even sore where it was injected in my arm
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In my area, 5 surgeries got together and they have about 8 jabbers on the go, very efficient and friendly attitude. Arrive at the surgery, shown where to park and escorted to where you sign in, walk through into corridor and some one jabs you, their helper gives you a reminder card and then in a large room I had to sit for 15 minutes That was on the 4th of this month and now they have virtually completed the over sixties. Just hope this lockdown comes to an end soon, have run out of jobs to do indoors and it is too bloody cold outside to work in the garden or fiddle in my workshop. I had the phisor jab my wife 2 days later had the Oxford jab, the young helper in the waiting room, said they do not know which type they have until it arrives.
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Interesting the silence regarding the second jab seeing as they should be starting those in 3 weeks. It never crops up in any discussions I've heard.
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Interesting the silence regarding the second jab seeing as they should be starting those in 3 weeks. It never crops up in any discussions I've heard.
The paperwork that you get given when you have the AstraZeneca jab, from the manufacturers says the second dose should be received between 4 weeks to 12 weeks ideally.
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Interesting the silence regarding the second jab seeing as they should be starting those in 3 weeks. It never crops up in any discussions I've heard.
What do you want hear? Everyone I know who has had their first jab has been given a date for the second. There are numbers available showing how many have had both jabs. The data is here (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/).
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Mrs B and I didn't! We will be contacted in due course. I'm OK with that.
Colin
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What do you want hear? Everyone I know who has had their first jab has been given a date for the second. There are numbers available showing how many have had both jabs. The data is here (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/).
A date means squat the letter that came out first said all those with a second date after Jan4 will now be 12 weeks or more.Don't forget some of us were done last year'
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A date means squat the letter that came out first said all those with a second date after Jan4 will now be 12 weeks or more.Don't forget some of us were done last year'
Sorry, still not getting this. What do you want to hear in all these conversations?
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What do you want hear? Everyone I know who has had their first jab has been given a date for the second. There are numbers available showing how many have had both jabs. The data is here (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/).
No Actual date was given to me, just I will be contacted.
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I have put 12 weeks on the calendar. If I don't hear by then I will be contacting them. I expect that I will hear unless government policy changes.
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No Actual date was given to me, just I will be contacted.
When I booked on line, I was sent a confirmation giving the original appointment and a time, date and reference number for the second.
Different areas might work differently.
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Just FYI I used the 119 number from my mobile to book appointments for my mother and her dependant man friend.
They took all their details and from the post code given they offered Elland Road FC (newly opened) as the place to go. By the end of the call I had received 2 text messages for each with both of their appointments 5 mins apart for the first jab and their second appointments the same on April 28th.
I was allowed to accompany them through the process and both were given the Astra and a card each with the batch number on.
I followed them up on the next day and neither had experienced any discomfort or side effects.
This was on the 8th Feb.
At 63 I have not been invited yet.
EDIT the one thing that was missed by the guy on the phone was to say that I.D. other than the reference numbers would be required at the appointment.
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If you want confirmation as to what NUMBERS of people have received the Jab, look on Sky news freeview 233, in the top left hand corner, they scroll through the total number of cases vaccinated, then the number of those having a first jab, and then the percentage, followed by those having a second jab and then by the percentage. O0
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And over half of those second doses would have been for those jabbed up to the 14th Dec which took till Jan 4 which also begs the question why are some getting one in the GAP period.Dec 4 The 12 week gap then came into play which would mean the first of the 2nd jabs would be March 9 for those done on the 15th Dec.The units ie medical centres etc.,that started at the beginning Dec 8 are the ones withe huge backlog. The Super Vac stations started with a clean slate so easy to give second dates.My original Beef was nothing is mentioned about the second dose or when or how they are going to catch up.I am in the 80+ group with underlying conditions but not particularly worried but I know a lot in the group who are.
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As the 2nd dose is supposed to be the same vaccine as the first (at the moment anyway) they will need to know which vaccine a centre will get on a particular day before they can book appointments. I doubt that they can confirm that for dates in and beyond March at this time. My 1st appointment came with 24hrs notice and I expect the same for the second dose.
The other problem that I can see is that from March they will have to give (under current rules) around 350,000 second doses a day. That is going to knock a big hole in the number of first doses that they can give unless the supply situation improves very quickly.
The letter that you get which tells you that they will book both appointments at the same time doesn't help. That is not what is happening here.
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Personal experience is that we booked online on Friday, attended the appointment yesterday afternoon (Saturday) and, when leaving, were given a card with our next appointment already booked for exactly 12 weeks time (to the minute).
We were given the Pfizer vaccine and have, as yet, had no ill effects.
All those involved at the centre (Hereford County Hospital) could not have been more helpful and we were both struck by how well the whole process was orchestrated :-))
Very impressed.
Mark
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Well had mine last night - no physical letter, just a text message from the practice with a location and where to book it online, picked 6pm and attended, no waiting after having the Oxford AZ, card gives the date, type as AZ and batch number, more than likely in 12 weeks will receive a text to attend the same location at the same time.
Side effects were discussed and the most common is the sore arm - duh - you just stabbed me and injected 5-10 ml of liquid into muscle tissue, of course it's gonna hurt for a while.
The father inlaw and his male counterpart with his wifes sister have had no effects other than above, but the wifes mother and her sister had a dose of bad cold type symptoms, so I expect coming from that gene pool the wife will have a similar reaction (she turns 50 next week and apart from me winding her up :} [size=78%] will probably get the jab under group 8/9). [/size]
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Local doctors phoned yesterday to offer us jabs next Wednesday but they are currently giving Tizer {-) I want Oxford so we are on the list for their next batch.
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We are getting our jabs 5th March O0
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Oh and today received a physical letter to compliment the email sent last week that I am classed as clinically venerable and have been added to the shielding list - doh, when I told the wifey last week - she said it's the clinically insane list you need to go on >>:-( .
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Ive been told I'm close to being clinically obtuse.
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Im on the Endangered Species List
Had a nasty headache and it wasna the malt
cheers
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Aye jist NBA
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Just got my invite for my second jab 10th March same time, same place. same poison as before.
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How near is your second jab to the 12 weeks?
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Hi Tug 6 Days early ie My 21 day was (postponed)due Jan 12 so 84 would have been about March 16 Local health centre. At the MO only 796,196 2nd jabs nationwide half those done before Jan4 Nearly a 20 Million backlog don't envy the medics
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Mine this Friday first was 21st December and I am a care worker
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Good is that local or one of the Super Centres
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Good is that local or one of the Super Centres
Countess of Chester hospital O0
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We finally got our Oxford today. The one Europe frowned upon but now can’t get enough of <*<
Wife is ok and personally I just had an aching shoulder for a couple of hours.
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Last time we will send any Australian fine Grade Uranium or Wool to Europe >>:-( .........the EU Blocks 1/4M doses of AZ to Australia >>:-(
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-05/italy-eu-block-250000-astrazeneca-doses-to-australia/13218348
Derek
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Looking long term it would make sense for Oz to produce their own under licence. The Italians only have the ability to block the shipment because it is being produced under licence from AZ in Italy >>:-(
I think every country needs its own manufacturing ability as this could go on forever. I’m thinking a licence also ensures all mutation updates
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The EU has made a total cock up of their vaccination policy and are scrabbbling to try and salvage something from the mess.
Colin
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Andy, yes Australia has purchased the 'to manufacture under Licence'......quantities of both the AZ and the Johnson varieties
The speed at which our decisions were made I think reflected the degree of infection here on our shores.......[I certainly have my own thoughts but we on MBM are forbidden here to elaborate on any Political decisions]...... [I must not get into the hot water pot again]
In fairness, I think the -70C logistics requirement of the LT version balked many.......some are now suggesting the actual cost of the on-site supply of this is x 500 the actual cost of 1/2 a dozen single doses :-X to outback Australian Communities
I can safely mention that the OZ production is destined for some smaller Pacific Region Countries
Derek
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Promising :-))
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Having asked question chatting with my colleagues in the office the other day (we work from Paris but obviously everyone is at home), I think most of Europe is *****d of with the UK at the moment. Sour grapes with splitting, then watching us do so (relatively) well with vaccinations in % terms so far. One thing for sure my colleagues are all very bitter about what's happening in their countries, it's a bit of a touchy subject.
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Well, the EU seem to have comprehensively messed up their response at all levels. Inadequate delivery and incompetent politicians.
In the UK we just seem to have the latter.
Colin (hopefully accumulating antibodies)
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Wifey has got her cum uppence for taking the mick out of me and my aching shoulder %%
She’s had to retire early with flu like symptoms.
I’m fine but I think the 40% definitely hrlelps %% {-)
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I'm way down the pecking list but I just hope it doesn't have the same effects as my yellow fever jab did. Looking back I should have gone to hospital after that, but wasn't well enough to think much at all. Knocked me completely sideways for 6+ weeks after. Just as well I didn't do the trip -I'd have not made it on the flight, or probably put in hospital when I got there.
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I would bring that up with your GP now get some reassurance it should be ok and Definitely mention when you attend for your jab or get your appointment date
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I suspect that you need to resolve it before you go for your jab as I suspect that the screening will refuse you otherwise.
I can't believe the fuss that is being made about Easter overseas holidays. Surely nobody in their right mind, or with any sense of community spirit, was booking an overseas holiday for Easter!
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Looking long term it would make sense for Oz to produce their own under licence.
The Commonwealth Serum Laboratories (CSL) will be manufacturing 50 million doses of the AZ vaccine at the rate of 1 million per week in Australia, starting very soon. We are in a very fortunate situation here at present, as the incidence of Covid is very low, and restrictions are being relaxed almost daily. We have had no cases in our area since July 2020, and many other areas are the same. Several deliveries of vaccine have arrived in Australia from overseas, and are already being given, but when the CSL comes on line it will be full steam ahead.
Peter.
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Personally I would have thought the UK government would seize on the chance of a publicity coup by sending the 250,000 doses from the AZ UK supply as a gesture of cultural solidarity i.e. one in the eye for the EU ;D
Not say anything till its in the hands of the AUS authority, citing that we dont block shipments to our friends.
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A bit encouraging 1,000,000 2nd Doses passed today not surprised no Fanfare
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After over 24hrs I can report that despite our initial report we both descended into feeling quite unwell.I stayed in bed until quite late and lacked any energy today. However as bed time approaches I think we are getting over the worst.
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Its said the 2nd dose can hit worse and hit those that were ok with the first Oh! I had no prob for the first so Touch wood for next week
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We both feel back to normal this morning. The end of May for the next.
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I have never seen this researched so it is pure speculation.
I wonder if how bad a reaction you get to the jab is in any way related to how much protection you build and/or how susceptible you were to Covid in the first place and/or if it varies between vaccines?
I had a slight ache around the injection site for 12hrs & my wife had no reaction at all to the 1st dose. Pfizer. As i explained it to her "no sense no feeling". I am still recovering from that comment and its after effects.
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I think it’s related to muscle density. My mother felt nothing at 85, my wife felt nothing at the time of the injection but does now.
I felt like there was great resistance to the liquid going in and it’s still feeling bruised.
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I've heard there are two factors dictating whether you get a reaction. Firstly it depends where the needle goes in. If it hits a tendon or some other structure then it can cause inflammation. Secndly, it might indeed depend on whether you have already caught covid without being aware of it or caught something in the same group of viruses. Early last year I got the 'coughing bug' which gives you a nasty cough for weeks and that is a virus. It wasn't Covid as I've had it before and the symptoms were the same.
Colin
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I think it’s related to muscle density. My mother felt nothing at 85, my wife felt nothing at the time of the injection but does now.
I felt like there was great resistance to the liquid going in and it’s still feeling bruised.
Taranis
So I might have said to my wife "no sense, no feeling and no muscle tone." {:-{ . Dangerous.
I didn't feel the injection at all. I was speaking to someone else & hadn't realised that I had had it.
Colin
I have always wondered about whether I have had Covid. I was in Wuhan just before the virus became public knowledge & I came home with an incredibly vicious cough. The sort where you go red/blue because you just cannot breathe in and you have run out of air to cough with. I was put on antibiotics but they didn't really help much within normal antibiotic time scales.
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Hi Mayhem People. To put some folks minds at rest. I have a friend who is a retired GP and he has volunteered to help out with the vaccine programme locally. His wife is also a working GP. We have discussed at length the fact that some people feel a bit naff for 1 to 3 days after the AZ vaccine and he has given me an insight into the reasons (all a bit technical) but fundamentally its pretty much the same as to why some people get really bad colds and lucky folk like me hardly ever get a cold. The bottom line is, he stated categorically that he would tell people to not be concerned in any way about having the AZ vaccine.To give you all something to smile at, our local council has just put up some notices in the park where our Club operates. The signs are all about drug abuse in the park. Given the age demographic of our members and the ailments we all suffer from, we have concluded that we are the largest drug users that ever go near the park !!!!!
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..... Just got my letter.
Sunday post too! :o
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Good job!
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..... Just got my letter.
Sunday post too! :o
Hand Delivered ? :-) :-) :-) :} :}
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I saw a postie this morning thought strange
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Hand Delivered ? :-) :-) :-) :} :}
Yeah, syringe with needle and a one page 'Quick jab guide'! {-)
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Just had my second this morning.Joined back of a queue of around 30 in the wee Marquee 0910. Done and dusted and evicted 0934 :-) .
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Had my first on Monday - Astra Zenica - no problems but was surprised how empty the vaccination centre was (Basildon) - about 10 of us as a maximum. Done and dusted in ten mins. No reactions so far and all very efficient.
Geoff
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The wife had hers done this saturday gone at 2pm - out in about 10 minutes, she seemed to be worried before and chirpy after, all day yesterday she was suffering from a headache, but each weekend she does anyway as she unwinds from work, over the last couple of months she has been suffering pain in her right shoulder - so she had the jab in that one as it is already hurting O0 (oh and by text like me but a different location)
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(https://i.ibb.co/KNv4wpq/166273249-4161176787246702-4412793749133170710-n.jpg) (https://imgbb.com/)
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I don’t think the do gooders will let that pass
How about refusing treatment to those who refuse vaccination?
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Taranis read it again, it says vacations, not vaccinations :} I wouldn’t need forcing to take a mandatory vacation O0
Peter.
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{-)
I need a COVID vacation :-))
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I think we all do O0
Peter.
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Put me down for 2 O0
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LOOKS LIKE ALL EWE GUYS ARE HEADING TO TASMANIA !!!
THE COVID FREE STATE !!!!
Harry
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I've been on a covid vacation for all but 42 hours in the last year >:-o
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well last wendesday I had my 2nd Pfizer Jab, 5 weeks after the first, with the first starting 24 hours after the vaccination I felt slightly off colour, not enough to stop me doing anything, well after the second, 24 hours later i once again felt off colour, a bit worse this time, and once again it lasted a further 24 hours - still not enough to more than slow me down a little.
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Notice how only Oxford AZ seems to have issues, nothing about Pfizer, maybe its the others trying to discredit OAZ as they are doing it at cost, whereas the others are charging up to 3 times the at cost amount
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Read it again, it says vacations, not vaccinations :} I wouldn’t need forcing to take a mandatory vacation O0
Peter.
Sorry everyone :} ..... it fooled me too! I didn't get until someone literally spelled it out to me! O0
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Notice how only Oxford AZ seems to have issues, nothing about Pfizer, maybe its the others trying to discredit OAZ as they are doing it at cost, whereas the others are charging up to 3 times the at cost amount
Had my first dose of AZ week and a half ago, no issues at all. Daughter got her second Pfizer jab today - her arm was hot and sore by the time she got home. Vaccinator told her the side effects from the second dose of Pfizer were often worse than the first. SWMBO goes for her first jab tomorrow, we'll see how she gets on.
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Sorry everyone :} ..... it fooled me too! I didn't get until someone literally spelled it out to me! O0
Martin, you're as sharp as a tack.......as always {-) or maybe not {:-{
Peter.
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Had my first jab yesterday of AZ, only really got it because I had a small little problem last November (ie a heart attack) so I moved up the list (still on only 75's in this region......if you can get it....wife still miffed she still too young as well). Doctor had a sense of humour got a "pepper pig" plaster over the huge hole in my arm (I am a wimp). Happy yesterday..... arm today feels like I have been punched there..(old school thing from the day....) a bit numb.
Still back to model building soon :-))
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I hate needles but never got a nice sticky plaster !! :-) :-)
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WELL i had my A/Z an i think it hit me bad in the way of a bad back pain an it lasted over a wk but cant be sure they were S/E as i have a back injury but never had it so bad an the missus had her A/Z an went down with bad vertigo an she hasnt had that for yrs an we both had our probs in the same week so i only hope the 2nd jab is not worst as someone said if it was that
chris
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Like a lot of other goverments, the blame game has started here. Federal Govt. said 4 million vaccinated by end of March, 675,000 only had them. <:( Plus there is NO WAY I am going to the city to get one. >>:-(
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It is very slow indeed, Brian, and it also seems very haphazard. For example, one GP clinic in Lismore has started vaccinations, others have not received any. In nearby Ballina, one clinic is vaccinating, others have no idea when they will get their supply. We have had a bit of a scare here lately, with a man from Byron Bay testing positive after being close to some infectious people from Brisbane in a local pub. As a result, Tweed, Byron, Lismore, and Ballina shire residents are subject to tighter restrictions for a few days until the extent of the problem becomes clearer. We haven’t been subject to very tight restrictions up until now, so we are quite philosophical about it.
Peter.
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Hello,
I had my Second Jab yesterday.No sore Arm, all OK !!.No problems at all !!!!!.
JayDee. :-)) :-)) :-))
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well at least the UK are on or even ahead or target.
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Did well here too :D
Top+
4th and 3rd
By any measure, the UK is one of the countries most affected by COVID-19 in the world. The UK has the third highest total number of COVID-19 deaths and fourth highest number of deaths per million population in the world. Looking at excess mortality – which helps us to include COVID-19 deaths that may not have occurred in hospitals – suggests we are doing worse than Italy, France and Germany, and comparably to Spain. But we have not reached the end of the crisis and data reporting across countries is at different stages. It is too soon to conclude what the ultimate totals will be.
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......................But we have not reached the end of the crisis and data reporting across countries is at different stages. It is too soon to conclude what the ultimate totals will be.
I don't think that there is going to be an ultimate total. Rather, like flu, there will be a steady trickle of new deaths. I certainly don't think that any meaningful total can be established until we reach a stable position which i suspect won't be until at least a year from now after next winters surge.
Does anybody know how you get an antibody test to ascertain whether the vaccine has actually worked for the recipient?
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Hi All,
Although this is not Covid vaccination related it is Covid related in regards that clubs that have insurance public liability etc must now have a Covid risk assessment to cover how they operate, club house utilisation and club events. Southend model boat club has had one since last year at the request of the council and insurance company.
Clubs may want to check this out.
Regards
Destroyer 42
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Appreciate the heads up, although no regattas are planned at present I fell we should all look into this.
Phil....MPBA
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Hi Steamboatphil,
I wrote our clubs R/A up last year to cover Covid if you need to look at ours its on our website otherwise p.m me.
Destroyer 42
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If OAZ comes up with a vaccine that can cope with the new variants, IMHO I would not take any contracts from the EU as they have done nothing but put it down on safety fears and if a contract is given, make them pay like JJ or Mederna or Pfizer i.e. at 3 to 4 times the price, whereas, every where else, give it to them either at the same rate as the current 'at cost' or with a very small mark up. If OAZ is so defective - why are they still going on about the supply and storing what they do get, its almost like a customer getting a part delivery of defective parts and still wanting the remainder of the contract to be filled with the same defective parts, cannot understand the logic.
Notice the Netherlands and Germany have stopped giving it under 60's or suspended it, seems like they are under the idea, any one having a reaction to a vaccine means we must stop using it as any reaction cannot be tolerated, though you dont hear about the Pfizer ones issues (except yesterday when they reported that Pfizer has had about 3 deaths due to the brain blood clots, you dont see them suspending that brand do you), the statement went on to say about 31 deaths due to clots in 18 million doses, thats 1 in under 600,000.
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There has been one reported case of a blood clot here in Australia, out of nearly 700,000 vaccinations using AZ. Those odds are acceptable to me, and I’m booked in for my jab on 10th April.
Peter.
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There has been one reported case of a blood clot here in Australia, out of nearly 700,000 vaccinations using AZ. Those odds are acceptable to me, and I’m booked in for my jab on 10th April.
Peter.
Same as the chance of being struck by lightning
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What are the historical clotting ratios for the unvaccinated population ?
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What are the historical clotting ratios for the unvaccinated population ?
As I understand it the total number of clots is not much higher than the general population and lower than that for women on the pill. The interesting part is that it is an unusual type/ location of the clot.
Whatever the other facts it remains true that the risk is so small as to be unimportant. The fact is that eating/ drinking/ being injected with anything has possible side effects which we accept as long as the risk is reasonable. To my mind the risk of clots is reasonable.
The biggest danger of this is that all the headlines might put a lot of people off having the vaccine and that is so much worse.
There is a lot of politics going on in Europe. Politicians and the truth are poor bedfellows and Macron looks likely to loose an election soon.
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The seasonal flue jab has a much higher percentage of serious complications (Guillain-Barré syndrome) than the Oxford Zenica jab , and no kerfuffle is made about that.
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A small extract from the Lancet. Not conclusive but gives a little idea of the normal rate
In a population of 5 million people (ie, size matching the approximate number of people having received the Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Europe by March 10, 2021
4 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00762-5/fulltext#bib4)), this incidence would correspond to approximately 169 expected cases of venous thromboembolism per week, or 736 expected cases per month (if based on the incidence rate among the 18–99-year-old Danes). Similarly, if estimated based on the incidence rate among 18–64-year-old Danes, one would expect 91 cases of venous thromboembolism per week, or 398 cases per month.
More info in the link
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00762-5/fulltext
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I had my first death-jab yesterday @ 2pm By 6pm I felt awful - terrible migraine with major vision disturbances, temperature, nausea and unbelievable fatigue.Still feel the same this morning.
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I had my first jab 6 weeks ago and I still don't feel any younger.
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I had my first death-jab yesterday @ 2pm By 6pm I felt awful - terrible migraine with major vision disturbances, temperature, nausea and unbelievable fatigue.Still feel the same this morning.
You are most certainly the exception. I gather from "death jab" and your other posts that you are not a fan. Perhaps your other medical circumstances make the whole thing more traumatic. I am amazed that you were not on a priority list to get your vaccine sometime ago.
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They wanted to do me months ago but I didn't think my body was strong enough. I'm midway through my 7th chemo.
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I am beginning to worry I had my jab in January, 2nd. one next week, I had zero symptoms as did my wife. Perhaps my immune system put up no resistance and packed up and went home!
Roy
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I am beginning to worry I had my jab in January, 2nd. one next week, I had zero symptoms as did my wife. Perhaps my immune system put up no resistance and packed up and went home!
Roy
I understand that you are much more likely to get the side effects with the second jab. If you do then great your body is building antibodies but if you don't it doesn't necessarily mean that you are not building antibodies. Seems odd to be hoping for 24hrs of being less than well.
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The Australian Red Cross is advising donors. that they must incubate [wait & see] for two weeks after their first jab, before they are allowed to continue with either whole Blood or Plasma donations
The current directions do not differentiate between the AZ or the Fizzy vaccination strain O0
Derek
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Roy I've had both no side effects whatsoever I also did an Antigen test for the UK BioBank that was Positive and I have the Longer lasting antigens (IgG). The trouble is most of you Latecomers have had too much time to fret and fuss and worry which doesn't help. Not that the first in line didn't my second was due Jan 12th then Bang on Jan 4 Full stop for us all .Then 12 week and speculation of mixing Az and Pf .Ah well made it through the rain. now I hope.It is not like Aerobics No Pain No Gain slogan Good luck :-))
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The Australian Federal Dept of Health is advising that the interval between the flu and Covid vaccine injections be at least two weeks. This is not because of the possibility of a clash between them but, in the event of an adverse reaction, it can be determined which vaccine may be responsible. I would assume it's the same everywhere.
Peter.
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The Australian Federal Dept of Health is advising that the interval between the flu and Covid vaccine injections be at least two weeks. This is not because of the possibility of a clash between them but, in the event of an adverse reaction, it can be determined which vaccine may be responsible. I would assume it's the same everywhere.
Peter.
Yes, I would imagine so. We had our second shot today, and one of the questions we were asked was "Have you had any other innoculation recently?". No, so we are now topped up and hope not to see another needle until the autumn. :-) :-)
Greg
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This leads back to the need for an Australian Medical Record Number
Our Australian Government has previously put forward for all Australian Citizens to Register & sign up to this Database........to have your Medical Records linked to our existing Federal Government Medicare Card registration that every legal Citizen has
The 'naysayes.....' the Gun Lobby, Taxation Evasion Lobby, various Sexually Orientated :P Lobbys.....all screamed of loss or invasion of privacy and all that ....
If COVID vaccinations were in short supply, why not mandate a criteria in making a booking was to supply your AMRN :-))
Want to book an airline seat .....present your AMRN
The list of benefits & advantages goes on.......
Derek
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I have booked in for my 1st COVID-19 injection on Monday the 19th April, so checked the Australian Life Blood for latest advice on 'donations after vaccinations' & to my surprise %) the wait & see period is reduced.......
extract from the Australian Life Blood WEB site 2021.04.10
"Yes, but you need to wait at least seven days after each COVID-19 vaccination to make sure you have had no side effects "
So my earlier booking for the 29th of April is still OK..... :-)) [number 110]..
Derek
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We had ours this afternoon at our local GP clinic. My wife, who has myasthenia gravis, an auto immune disease, was rather apprehensive, but her GP was the duty doctor and was able to reassure her. So far no side effects, but we’ll have to wait and see if there are any long term effects. I believe that the vast majority of people have no issues with the vaccine (AZ).
We are booked for the flu shot in just over two weeks, and our second Covid jab on July 2.
Peter.
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I wonder if I discovered a side effect.
I had my AZ on 5th March and on the 10th of March I decided to reduce alcohol consumption.
I don’t know why this entered my head as I always thought it to be a hard ask.
However for over a month now I have only had a drink on one day in every four and it hasn’t hurt %%
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That’s a terrible side effect Andy, I hope is doesn’t affect me {-)
Peter.
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Since it started I've been keeping track of the numbers in my area through https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 All easy enough apart from nobody doing any updating over weekends, but today there was a drop in the overall total. Leaves me wondering if there has been a change in the way these things are counted.
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Crikies Malcolm....those statistics look like someone is drunk at the helm mapping the top 1/2 of OZ :-X ..... Derek
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Crikies Malcolm....those statistics look like someone is drunk at the wheel mapping the top 1/2 of OZ :-X ..... Derek
Perhaps when the top half of OZ was originally made, it was a foretelling?
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I had my 2nd. one yesterday. I was booked 2nd. jab for Thursday 8th. I had been phoning to try and find out what time and twice told, "You will be contacted".
On the 7th. I rang 119 and they then told me there was no booking for me but arranged the following day. I arrived and then they told me there was no trace of my original jab in January! After some to and froing I suggested they rang my wife! She puts it in the diary and then they "accepted" that as my first jab. I think the problem was I was never given a vaccine record card, got one now though.
Had a nice chat though, the clerks were mainly ex-cabin crew staff and with the marshallers in car park (free) there were more of them than the jab-seekers. I wonder if there is a jab seekers allowance?
Roy
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I got my first jab yesterday as an unpaid carer. Complete faff to get it. I got offered the jab twice at 12hrs notice, then one hours notice at my GP in Culloden...... Which I'm nowhere near because I'm caring for a family member in Falkirk. After 3 weeks chasing and through temporary registration at local GP I finally got the appointment. Feel like I've been kicked in the arm by a horse and pretty nauseous today. Not unexpected I guess. Wasn't happy to have the AZ version but when the nurse finished her questionnaire and said she was happy to give it I said well at least one of us is happy then so we'd better get on with it I guess. LoL.
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That’s a terrible side effect Andy, I hope is doesn’t affect me {-)
Peter.
I'm more concerned about the possible effects of the second dose {-)
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I'm more concerned about the possible effects of the second dose {-)
at that rate he will be down to a drink once a week or longer ok2
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at that rate he will be down to a drink once a week or longer ok2
That’s too horrible to contemplate %%
Peter.
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Tomorrow is day four so I’ll be starting at breakfast {-)
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On Monday I have to start getting the bowls club up and running for the coming season. We have a volunteer work party of members to manage as there is some serious lifting to do but the main problem will be how to keep them social distanced and not hugging each other now they on the green again.
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AH, but won’t the majority be one of the top 4 groups i.e. double dose vaccinated, if they all have a lateral flow test prior to attending then they can stand closer together but avoid the touchy feely bit.
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AH, but won’t the majority be one of the top 4 groups i.e. double dose vaccinated, if they all have a lateral flow test prior to attending then they can stand closer together but avoid the touchy feely bit.
Not so much one of the top as OVER THE TOP Yes we are all probably double dosed but we have appointed a member as our Covid precautions and regulations officer and he has gone totally overboard . I hope he does not go the lateral flow test route that really would put the mockers on our season.
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https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-womans-severe-reaction-covid-23945503 (https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-womans-severe-reaction-covid-23945503)
Odd that the Daily Mail chose to block out her Rash in their report but both the Sun and the Scottish Sun and daily record showed them.Maybe they have shares in Astra Zeneca %)
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Perhaps the Daily Mail is concerned as to the readerships sensitivity - yeah, right :-X
Ray.
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Everybody catching Covid has a 1 in 35 chance of not surviving. Everybody getting vaccinated has a 1 in 1000000 chance of not surviving. I know which odds I prefer. I preferred them before my shots, I still do.
Figures from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274)
Nobody has yet produced figures for the numbers who have had it, but are suffering severe after effects. Its possibly too technical and difficult to simplify for newspapers perceived readership.
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....................Nobody has yet produced figures for the numbers who have had it, but are suffering severe after effects. Its possibly too technical and difficult to simplify for newspapers perceived readership.
I guess that it depends on which newspaper you read. For the traditional tabloids I would agree.
The long term side effects question is probably very difficult as they seem to still be finding them. Organ malfunction can take a very long time to become obvious for example.
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Everybody catching Covid has a 1 in 35 chance of not surviving.
Absolutely false. It is over five percent for those of advanced age with multiple comorbidities and lower than one percent for people under fifty and healthy.
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Absolutely false. It is over five percent for those of advanced age with multiple comorbidities and lower than one percent for people under fifty and healthy.
depends which way you look at it, from the figures on the link 4.4 million have caught it, 127,385 have died , that is 1 in 35.
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depends which way you look at it, from the figures on the link 4.4 million have caught it, 127,385 have died , that is 1 in 35.
That is abuse of statistics.
We are pretty sure that we know of almost everyone who has died with Covid in their lives but we do not know almost everyone who has had it. Many either have no symptoms or very minor symptoms, don't get a test and therefore don't boost the number who have had it but not died.
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Hi I believe 87% of all statistics are wrongly applied. Many poor sods don't know how to work out percentages let alone the other stuff.
Roy
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Absolutely false. It is over five percent for those of advanced age with multiple comorbidities and lower than one percent for people under fifty and healthy.
I have no idea what the figures are in Canada, but mine are UK based. 1 in 35 is 2.86%, so between 5 and 1 percent. Probably biased higher since the older tend to be in poorer condition and have had the opportunity to gain more pre-existing conditions.
Still a long long way from the 1 in 1000000 chance of a fatally bad reaction.
Hi I believe 87% of all statistics are wrongly applied. Many poor sods don't know how to work out percentages let alone the other stuff.Roy
Is that from the 91.5% of statistics that are made up on the spot?
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Hi Malcolm I used to look into computer problems in companies for a major computer company. I could always produce a set of 'better' stats from the same source the others produced. I would resolve issues working the other way as well showing that our own stats were not what they appeared.
I had very interesting couple of years doing this, then as equipment reliability improved and started being more distributed I think I ran out of problems! Ended up going to more M&S stores than my wife, that was nice though.
regards
Roy
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I have no idea what the figures are in Canada, but mine are UK based. 1 in 35 is 2.86%, so between 5 and 1 percent. Probably biased higher since the older tend to be in poorer condition and have had the opportunity to gain more pre-existing conditions.
Still a long long way from the 1 in 1000000 chance of a fatally bad reaction.
Is that from the 91.5% of statistics that are made up on the spot?
You initially stated EVERYBODY getting Covid has a 2.8 percent chance of dying, which is totally false.
Divide the number of lung cancer cases by population and you get a surprisingly high rate that suggests everyone should be getting screened regularly... of course, these cases are clustered in smokers and people exposed to noxious gases on a regular basis, and the average person has little to no reason to fear lung cancer.
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You initially stated EVERYBODY getting Covid has a 2.8 percent chance of dying, which is totally false.
Divide the number of lung cancer cases by population and you get a surprisingly high rate that suggests everyone should be getting screened regularly... of course, these cases are clustered in smokers and people exposed to noxious gases on a regular basis, and the average person has little to no reason to fear lung cancer.
A horse having odds of 35 to 1 in a race does not mean that it will win every 35th race. Odds are a statistical expression of chance. That particular horse will likely never win a race. If it had a field of particularly poor horses, the statisticians (or "bookies") would alter its odds accordingly to keep the number of winning punters in check.
The overall odds are for everybody. Just as some horses are faster than others, so there will be a spread of liability to a particular outcome which will be different for every single individual. That is in the nature of statistics.
Look up "standard deviation" and "normal spread".
If the numbers have been consistently and honestly gathered, the overall chances indicated will be true, but there is zero chance of saying what will happen to any particular individual. Any numbers gathered are only as good as the gathering mechanism.
A year ago, there was precious little organisation, numbers were much reduced because cases were missed or not recorded resulting in an early relaxation which came back to bite us October through January, and that was after effective treatments were developed. The various factors of voluntary precautions and the vaccine have reduced the numbers of new cases, and the better knowledge of treatment is maybe cutting the bad after effects. Plus there is a reducing pool of people who can be affected, but on the other hand, at the moment there is an increasing number of people who have been vaccinated and are thus perfectly capable of picking up the virus and carrying it around to spread onward. Not medically carriers, but transporters.
There is still the risk of another spike in numbers. What big infection numbers mean is that NHS resources that should be being used for all of the "everyday" problems are diverted to covid treatment. Diverting resources away from those everyday jobs must mean that people can die from lack of treatment. Are they covid related?
Knowing that I am in the high risk category from the infection, the one in a million chance of a bad (fatal) after effect from the vaccine was for me a no-brainer against a 3 or so percent chance of a really bad outcome from catching the disease. And the very high likelihood of what is left of my life expectancy having its quality severely reduced should I go down with it.
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ONS statistics show that the older you are the greater your life expectancy !
The charts show that a 21 year old male today will have an average life expectancy of 86 years.
My life expectancy as a 76year old male is 89 years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07
I am always pleased when someone my age dies, statistically it increases my life expectancy.
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As kinmel says......
"ONS statistics show that the older you are the greater your life expectancy !"
Love it ......Derek O0 {-) %%
[The same 'assessment computing package' calculates me as 71, is likely to fall off the perch @ 86 >>:-( ]
The machine is statically broken..........try inputting any age from 70 to 75 and you get the same answer = 86 :o
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I shall pass on this 'statistic' to my friend Guy, he is 101 and looking forward to another birthday in June. Are we talking really big numbers here?
Roy
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I thought In was teetering with only a tenuous grip on my perch, but this website tells me I have time for 6 more boat builds.. Now, what next ! %%
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As kinmel says......
"ONS statistics show that the older you are the greater your life expectancy !"
Love it ......Derek O0 {-) %%
[The same 'assessment computing package' calculates me as 71, is likely to fall off the perch @ 86 >>:-( ]
The machine is statically broken..........try inputting any age from 70 to 75 and you get the same answer = 86 :o
As I remember it actuarial charts used for calculating annuities show that once you reach somewhere in your 80's you life expectancy remains constant at around 4 years. So at 80 it is 4 years but if you survive to 84 then you still have a 4 year life expectancy. Whatever age you are (80+) you have an average 4 years left.
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Hello Baldrick, can you beat the statistics by building model boats in parallel? Two at a time could make that 12! A good exercise for the brain.
I find that most 'statistics' in our house are controlled by my other half (I am not talking Jekyl and Hyde here).
I checked out her life expectancy which is about the same as mine but due to the age difference there is an overlap of 5 years. Not that there has been much overlap lately owing to her interpretation of S-D.
Cheers for now
Roy
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Averages are made from individuals. It is up to us as individuals to make the figures wrong by being awkward and living longer.
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I will drink to that!
Long live Living longer!
Roy
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Sounds like you’re trying the pickled product route {-)
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I will drink to that!
Long live Living longer!
Roy
Shouldn't that be "Live long and prosper"
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I'll stick with the old Frankie Laine song forecast I'm Gonna Live Till I Die. It's never been wrong
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We just got a message that our second jab appointment is brought forwards 4 weeks to this Friday.
I think I'll have it in the other shoulder this time %%
Every day above ground is a good one :-))
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I think I'll have it in the other shoulder this time
Which leaves only one obvious place for the Autumn booster ;D
Colin
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{-) :embarrassed:
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Ahh!, but which cheek is he going to turn %)
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Neither, it will be a French vaccine administered in the traditional way....
Colin
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A phone call at 6pm last night gave us a 10am appointment today for our second jab, exactly 11 weeks after the first.
Llandudno is a mass vaccination centre using only the Pfitzer vaccine and the queue was mostly people aged about 20 getting their 1st jab.
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hi there, phone call on Saturday and 30 minutes later the nurses arrived with the 2nd lot of injections at the door - me, the Mrs and me son all had our 2nd jab. This time we werent too bad just a burning arm where the jab went and aches and pains - but, the first time I was okay but the wife and son were ill - they were bad in bed for a couple of days. %)
john
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Mrs B and I have our second ones tomorrow.
Colin
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2nd jab next week. O0
Where are all the vaccines going? The UK population is around 65 million which means that 2 doses needs 130 million plus waste so 150 million doses should be plenty.
We have ordered 100m Oxford, 100m Pfizer, 100m Valneva, 60m Glaxo, 60m Novavax, 50m Curevac, 30m Jannsen, 17m Moderna. That is a total of 517 million.
As if 517 million doese ordered for 150 million required wasn't enough another 60 million doses were ordered today for use only on the most vulnerable in the autumn. These are not updated vaccines but more of what we have already had.
What are we doing with them all?
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The orders were not for delivery at once, but spread over time as production allowed.
At the time we placed orders no-one knew which vaccines would be successful. This was not an attempt to pick one winner out of all the runners, it was a bet on all the runners to ensure you picked the winners.
Surplus vaccine will be shared globally at not cost to the recipient, via Covex.
The autumn order is for booster jabs, which may be different to deal with variants if necessary.
What we need now is massive U.K. investment in strategic manufacturing - vaccines, medicines, PPE, medical equipment etc to avoid blockades.
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As I understand it todays order is for the existing formula but might be an updated vaccine. Given the shortage world wide I a sure that delivery of existing order could be delayed waiting for updates if we didn't need them now.
The number ordered still seems fantastic to me.
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Just had my yearly Flu jab from my GP. I have been put on the waiting list for Covid jab but no one knows when even being in the highest priority group. <:(
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It seems very inconsistent Brian. My wife and I are both in our 80s, and have both had the jab, but a number of our friends in a similar age bracket have not. The vaccine supply to the various GP clinics is erratic, some get it while others don’t. It has been very frustrating for many people.
Peter.
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Brian......if you want a COVID vaccination for yourself & wife...... just Google the following
health@comms.healthengine.com.au
Select Victoria, search on COVID injections by Post Code
You will find 101 listed Medical Practices by Name & Suburb who are offering Appointment schedules
If you have an issue, PM me with your Suburb & Post Code Number.......I will copy the listing back to you
My GP was/is not offering injections, however a Practice just 3 minutes away was.....so I booked my 1st injection a few weeks back & had this on Monday the 19th last....with the 2nd booked for Monday the 12/7
Each injection window appears as ~~ 20 minutes, with 90% being the paperwork being completed by the Nurse.......the Nurse then completed the procure with the painless injection, then a 10 minute wait, seated in the waiting room.....[just to ensure patients don't suffer any near instant adverse reaction]
Derek
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I have had my text message for me to book the 2nd jab, earliest is next weekend >:-o , had to check my roster that has gone to furlough again so I may have to rearrange the booking to be when the wife is at work and go during the day.
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I have not had so much concern for my well being since doing my National Service, when our Corporal would come round and tuck us all up in bed each night.
Roy
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So you were in the RAF then Roy ;)
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Hi jaymac, Yes how did you know? :embarrassed:
We had our jabs, TABT, only just short of Gulf war syndrome afterwards. Talking to my mate, got no reply, he was out cold on the deck. Then we had rifle drill for an hour, this was to circulate the new bodies in our blood stream, we soon got to call them anti-bodies and a lot more as well.
Three years later I had a top up and felt poorly for 2 days, so anyone having a jab now, get some rifle drill in and sort the problem!
So when I see big blowse blokes wincing at the sight of a needle I think "Get some in"! We would always hurry to queue up for jabs as by the time it was the turn of those at the back of the queue the needle was getting a bit blunt.
I can't remember whether we had the 'Tear Gas' practice before or after. You go in a large hut wearing a gas mask then have to take it off while a nice NCO lets off a gas cannister, and you come out crawling, but after an hour or so you can see OK.
Later on at an operational squadron, I was an Erk, we were invited to do de-pressurization tests if you wanted to go up on a test flight in the Canberras, I never did.
I had the start of a cold at the time and decided it was now or never. B****y H***, it hurt like hell but the cold did go almost at once afterwards. Still got the certificate! I was on RePat 3 months later to work on transport aircraft and less than a year later the squadron was disbanded and formed into 3 Squadron.
Food quality could vary enormously in the RAF, I spent my last year at RAF Lyneham and they used to win the Catering Trophy each year. The food was really good we had starters on Sundays soup if you wanted it and then all the usual roast meats that were carved while you waited then very nice sweets with cheese and biscuits to follow and coffee was available in a lounge area. When I think what RAF Yatesbury did for the same money per head it was criminal! (This was 60 years ago).
I left on the perfect day. It was the day of the AOC's Inspection and everybody signed my going away chit without looking at it.
Still, as in life, more happy days than the other.
Regards
Roy
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I didn't Roy but what I saw of the RAF in Aden, Germany and EL Adam about 15 miles from Tobruk it fitted :}
Re the Gas test the the Big surprise there was not the taking off the mask was the fact despite pre-empting and holding breath was the damn stuff just poured in through your nose while you waited till you could leave. Oh when we went to Canada we flew from Lyneham ah happy days sometime. Off topic be getting told off
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Just this minute had my second AZ
Never felt a thing this time in other arm
Today is a drink day so rather than 2 paracetamol and a bucket of water as prescribed I think I’ll crack a bottle O0
Happy weekend!
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I'm just having my third Saison du Pont {-) and I can honestly say I cannot feel a thing %% :}
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Passed a guy in local Tesco Culloden wearing a full chemical hood with separate filter package hanging off. Thought that was a bit much! He was to be fair one of the few who let me by with 2m distance unlike the covidiots in the rest of the store.
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I was cream crackered after the second dose. I spent a day in bed but OK now.
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I think its down to the after jab libation that made you cream crackered {-)
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I'm feeling really confident now and we look forwards to re starting our short lived routine of going to the cinema mid week with compare the meerkat. A nice big latte in hand.
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Had my 2nd yesterday afternoon, surprisingly - no pain this time, although I did ask for it in the other arm this time, the pain I am in is due to trying to create a drainage channel in a concrete hump to let the little lake of rain water escape from my back yard, but its chucking it down and water and electrics is not a good mix, the lake is too small for sailing victory in - just in case you were wondering
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Slightly off topic but protection is what this is about.
Tui & Easy Jet have announced that they are going to start holidays to amber countries. If you go there then there are are lots of jabs and 10 days at home quarantine when you get back.
Does anybody believe that those that take the holidays will actually follow this regime or that it will be enforced in any meaningful way?
I don't.
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Slightly off topic but protection is what this is about.
Tui & Easy Jet have announced that they are going to start holidays to amber countries. If you go there then there are are lots of jabs and 10 days at home quarantine when you get back.
Does anybody believe that those that take the holidays will actually follow this regime or that it will be enforced in any meaningful way?
I don't.
Why, because these are "common people" who can't be trusted? Would it be OK if rich people went?
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Why, because these are "common people" who can't be trusted? Would it be OK if rich people went?
No, they are likely to be people who firmly believe that "rules" are an imposition, or at best optional advice, and for somebody else. They can be found in every demographic.
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Why, because these are "common people" who can't be trusted? Would it be OK if rich people went?
Wow! Where did that come from?
Anybody who chooses to go to an amber country is, in my humble opinion, already demonstrating a lack of concern and decency. I don't care how rich / poor they are. Not following the rules when they get back would make them lowlife.
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Report today on the BBC that a surge of infections in Bolton is almost certainly due to people returning from India bringing the Indian varant of Covid with them and passing it on to their UK nearest and dearest in multi generational households. These are also the people who tend to resist having vaccinations. Clearly they are not observing the quaratine restrictions either.
Meanwhile, down here in Surrey local infection rates are effectively nil. People are still being very cautious unlike elsewhere.
The various 'hotspots' in the OK are all capable of sparking off a further surge of infections which could undo much of the benefits of vaccination if we are not careful.
All very frustrating really.
Colin
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After 17th May I doubt that there will be much if any caution at all, judging by actions I have seen when we were in the last lock down. :(( :((
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Wow! Where did that come from?
Anybody who chooses to go to an amber country is, in my humble opinion, already demonstrating a lack of concern and decency. I don't care how rich / poor they are. Not following the rules when they get back would make them lowlife.
Your assumption is that someone who goes to an amber country automatically won't follow the rules on return. While some undoubtedly won't, it's unfair to assume (as you do) that none of them will. If that were the case, all countries should be on the red list and all foreign travel should be banned.
Some people may have very good reasons to need to travel, which is presumably why the government has set the different levels. The rules involve testing and self-isolation (not "lots of jabs" as you claim) in order to allow this to happen safely.
Don't forget France is an amber country, and we see thousands of lorries arrive from there every day. Now you could put a stop to that if you want, but as the supermarket shelves empty, I suspect people would wonder if it's possible to arrange some rules for travel, which puts us where we are now.
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As was demonstrated last February, it only needs one to ignore rules and spread it by wandering around without a care in the world during the incubation period. Back then, nobody was in any way protected, but we are still nowhere near having a big enough proportion of the population protected.
Even after you have had your jabs and become, hopefully, immune, you are still a walking surface capable of transporting infection from one person coughing their fluids around to anybody you come into contact with.
Unfortunately, while most of the rules have become sensible, there are people who think that they are too important to follow them, and find legal, if not legitimate, excuses for breaking them. There are also those who are dumb enough to think that "sticking it to the man" is a good idea.
It strikes me that the infection is like a car rolling downhill, and the measures are the brakes. Every time the pressure on the brakes is eased, the car starts rolling faster again since there isn't a handbrake. Keeping the number of cases within what can be handled is the object, and will be until we either find the handbrake or get on level ground.
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(https://www.modelboatmayhemimages.co.uk/images/2021/05/14/endoff.png)
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Even after you have had your jabs and become, hopefully, immune, you are still a walking surface capable of transporting infection from one person coughing their fluids around to anybody you come into contact with.
Science begs to differ: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913 and https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2021/04/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19 You aren't completely immune either, but very unlikely to need to bother the NHS.
That doesn't mean we should go around ignoring all hygiene rules, but it's not as bad as you suggest. Mind you, if anyone coughs their fluids in your face, I don't feel a slap in their face with a cricket bat (we are British after all) is unreasonable, Covid or not.
It is still a mystery to me why local surges don't result in a large number of vaccinations descending on the area jabbing anyone they can find. It's not an instant fix, but a very effective one.
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The present mushrooming of cases of the Indian variant is largely centred on areas where significant numbers of people have returned from th sub continent to multi generational families and anecdotal evidence I have heard suggests that many have not isolated as required. The situation is made worse by these areas also featuring low uptake of vaccination.
There is a list of 'hotspots'. Most are in the Midlands or the North but there are also some in London.
I think the infection rate in Bolton yesterday was quoted as 162/100k. The rate down here in Surrey is 11.
Colin
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The present mushrooming of cases of the Indian variant is largely centred on areas where significant numbers of people have returned from th sub continent to multi generational families and anecdotal evidence I have heard suggests that many have not isolated as required. The situation is made worse by these areas also featuring low uptake of vaccination.
I'm always dubious of "anecdotal evidence" where there is the potential for it to be affected by racism. However, isolating in a small house with a large multigenerational family is going to be difficult no matter who you are. That's why a lot of the hotspots are also in poorer areas, made worse because for many, not going to work means no money. Zero-hours contracts don't offer sick pay!
The solution in the medium term is vaccination. There is a strong correlation between areas with low levels of take-up and hotspots. Vaccinate everyone in the area from 16 upwards, and you'll see a change. Quite a quick one too, as apparently younger people react to the vaccine faster reaching useful levels of cover within 10 days. Do that and you will curb the spread.
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I'm always dubious of "anecdotal evidence" where there is the potential for it to be affected by racism.
Yes, that is a fair point. In this case it was a close friend living near a North London multigenerational housing area and able to see for himself what was happening - no social distancing etc. He refuses to go to the local hospital as he considers it unsafe.
I agree about vaccination being needed but this morning's reports say that although surge vaccination may be applied (by vans on the street in some cases), it won't be effective soon enough to make a difference to the current spread. And of course the other problem is that you cannot force vaccination on those who refuse it which can be frustrating when it is those people who would benefit most, being more vulnerable.
A lot of younger people are not necessarily going to be enthusiastic about vaccinations when they weigh up the likely mild effects if they catch the bug against the circulating scare stories of side effects on social media and by the Presidents of France and Germany.
Somehow you have to persuade these people to come on board.
Colin
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I agree about vaccination being needed but this morning's reports say that although surge vaccination may be applied (by vans on the street in some cases), it won't be effective soon enough to make a difference to the current spread. And of course the other problem is that you cannot force vaccination on those who refuse it which can be frustrating when it is those people who would benefit most, being more vulnerable.
A lot of younger people are not necessarily going to be enthusiastic about vaccinations when they weigh up the likely mild effects if they catch the bug against the circulating scare stories of side effects on social media and by the Presidents of France and Germany.
Somehow you have to persuade these people to come on board.
It's an interesting question as to how worried we should be about the spread. Yes, it makes existing doom-laden headlines, but the vaccine scientists aren't concerned that this variant is going to beat them. If you don't see a significant rise in hospitalisations and deaths, then we have time to vaccinate, which will then reduce the spread. It's a better policy than not vaccinating anyway.
As for persuading people - the solution is reverse psychology. Simply tell them see don't care if they die - that's their decision. Have the chancellor appear in adverts saying "Don't get vaccinated, your death means I don't have to pay your pension! More money for Richie!" Then some will get their jab just to spite him...
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Recent Report from a Medical Journal ...........
All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences. WHO’s advisers were saying the word airborne only applied to particles smaller than 5 microns. The trajectory of a 5-micron particle from a person’s mouth went farther than 6 feet—hundreds of feet farther. On December 1, the organization acknowledged aerosol spread and finally recommended that everyone always wear a mask indoors wherever Covid-19 is spreading.
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I have absolutely no objection of wearing a Mask in my home if the NSW Health direct so, however I find it difficult to comprehend "the trajectory of a 5-micron particle from a person’s mouth went hundreds of feet???? Laws of Physics would suggest that this was not possible.....
....if you need more proof, this little Guy cannot even blow out a candle @ 1 foot let alone hundreds of feet away...
The article sounds like a 2021 version of The 3 Little Piggies........Huff, Puff & I'll Blow your House Down :embarrassed:
Derek
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An Aerosol particle can be light enough to be conveyed over great distances as its weight is insufficient for it to drop to the ground and is therefore effected by even the slightest air pattern (see vapour spread in a room from a vapor smoker).
The charge of being a racist when talking about those who refuse or are advised not to take the jab is usually levelled at those trying to get them to do the right thing, like it was said above you have to apply reverse psychology to put the point across,
i.e. yes you could die or someone close to you could, if you contract the virus.
And to be quite honest its no great loss if it is you, though not if it is someone you infect. Why, because it would be the darwin effect of getting rid of those who are quite honestly are capable of spreading the virus to those who are susceptible.
Those that live in the area causing concern at the moment, dont care about anyone else only their families, yet they are the ones who are affected, I know those neighbors that have returned from family in India and Pakistan by flying to a non red country before flying to either France or Amsterdam before returning through Manchester to avoid the hotel isolation, we cannot report them as no one listens and dont care really, and those that do report them are vilified by their community.
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From the PM's broadcast this evening it does seem that the non compliance with various COVID precautions by UK asian communities is posing a very real danger to the COVID Roadmap timetable. It is an incredibly difficult situation.
The previous comments about reverse psychology are likely to fall on deaf ears and are entirely impractical. The relevant communities aren't listening and won't respond. The local authorities have to try to engage with these people to change their behaviour which is a big ask.
With regard to younger people, the carrot has to be that unless you are vaccinated then your ability to do this, that and the other or support your footie team is going to be restricted. Telling people that if you don't have the jab you're gonna die just doesn't cut it. Hardly any of them won't and they know it. But thy can still pass the virus on to the vulnerable who might. Part of the problem is that people react according to their own personal circumstances and understandably so, but this can have a devastating effect on the national situation.
As for me, I see our prospects of revisiting Greece fading into the future. :((
Colin
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As far as I am concerned this is totally another instance of Boris and his boys being late at the party again and letting the oxygen of success escape . It was common knowledge from 6 weeks ago that the pandemic was building to criticality on the Indian Continent and they are fully aware that Indian/English residents make frequent exchange visits to relatives and visa versa. But it was not politically convenient to put India on the embargo list until it was too late , and then only said it would be from 5 days hence causing a surge of flights between the countries. Can only assume this was to give an impression of everything being hunky-dory before our local elections because it was one a day or so after them that the climate changed.
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I....................... Yes, it makes existing doom-laden headlines, but the vaccine scientists aren't concerned that this variant is going to beat them. ......
It probably won't beat them but it might well cause major problems in the meantime.
I still think that allowing overseas travel for anything other than essential visits (which doesn't include leisure) is a mistake until the vaccine roll out is complete - whether you are rich or poor.
I agree with Baldrick. There is an old saying that "a stitch in time saves nine". Boris has obviously never heard it.
Actually it is unfair to blame Boris totally. He is under a lot of pressure from all sides. The medical opinion tends to say caution but there are a lot of Conservative MP's and Labour figures such as Andy Burnham, Mayor of Manchester + various industry pressure groups, who are advocating opening up regardless. If you remember that the main objective was never our health but rather to stop there being pictures of overcrowded hospital wards & people dying on the pavement then his situation becomes understandable. Wrong but understandable.
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Science begs to differ: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913) and https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2021/04/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19 (https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2021/04/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19) You aren't completely immune either, but very unlikely to need to bother the NHS.
That doesn't mean we should go around ignoring all hygiene rules, but it's not as bad as you suggest. Mind you, if anyone coughs their fluids in your face, I don't feel a slap in their face with a cricket bat (we are British after all) is unreasonable, Covid or not.
It is still a mystery to me why local surges don't result in a large number of vaccinations descending on the area jabbing anyone they can find. It's not an instant fix, but a very effective one.
An interesting article, but no mention of surface transmission.
A vaccinated person is much less likely to host the virus, but his coat, having been spluttered on by a passer-by who has not been vaccinated will provide a surface to transport it, and surface droplets carrying the vaccine travel just as before. Social distancing prevents the second part - your coat still carries contagion, but you are less likely to pass it on.
The object is to slow the spread down so that the NHS is not overwhelmed until effective treatments can be found and/or enough people are vaccinated to cut transmission that way.
From what was mentioned earlier, I can't disbelieve that there are people in insurance companies and the odd Mandarin in the Treasury who have not calculated the cash savings for their organisations of not having to pay out on pensions. These are the "no pain, no gain" crowd who are convinced that it can't happen to them because the pain will fall on others and they will get the gain.
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ooooh <*< ...and as Malcolm says ..
"I can't disbelieve that there are people in insurance companies and the odd Mandarin in the Treasury who have not calculated the cash savings for their organisations of not having to pay out on pensions.
So true,...so true Malcolm O0
Derek
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The cash savings to the Treasury are pretty trivial compare to the cost of the whole thing. I suspect that they have worked out the savings just as they have tried to work out the costs. This is the right thing for them to do and is not the same thing as hoping for deaths to save money.
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I read China got caught out on their minimal Covid deaths claim someone Pointed out the bigger reduction in pension withdrawals
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Ive been drawing my pension for over 20 years now must be costing the country and annuity companies a fortune. Did wonder if the pandy thing was a beneficiary reduction exercise from said benefactors.
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One of my youngsters has had his today in one of the surge vaccination centres for bolton, as has is girlfriend, my eldest is going tomorrow for his, one is 25 and the other 20.
The wifes 2nd will be soon.
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Slightly off topic but protection is what this is about.
Tui & Easy Jet have announced that they are going to start holidays to amber countries. If you go there then there are are lots of jabs and 10 days at home quarantine when you get back.
Does anybody believe that those that take the holidays will actually follow this regime or that it will be enforced in any meaningful way?
I don't.
It appears that the government now agrees with me. Pity that they are saying it so late & so awkwardly. Don't go but we won't help you get a refund from your holiday company is about as mixed a message as you could ask for.
PS This applies to both rich & poor alike.
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The jist of what I've gleaned from radio 2 today is that the main victims of the surge in infections are those who were eligible for the jab but didn't bother to get it or just didn't want it. Tough justice
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Some of you obviously have had the vaccine, but there are millions of us who will no way be conned into having it..
if people are willing to have it and want it then its upto them, but me no chance..
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What are you afraid of? 1:250,000 chance of a clot or that you will be invaded by Microsoft.
I am having mine from my local GP Clinic next Tuesday. If I get full blown Covid, that will be my end but I should survive a minor attack.
Please get one (2) to save the rest of us.
Brian B6
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It's a personal choice, but those who choose not to be vaccinated put the rest of the population at risk. My wife and I, as well as all our friends of similar age, have had our first jab, with our second due on July 2. I am happy to put my faith in the medical experts, not the conspiracy theorists.
Peter.
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It appears that we 3 [from OZ] are in a similar Boat......with my second [AZ] booster booked for 12th July
Young Nurse doing the 1st injection confirmed that the second vaccination is the identical strain of epidemiological bio-chemical viratic AZ goop :o
There appears to be some rather concerning talk in the Media, that the second booster shot could be a Fizzy strain, after having the initial AZ variant......this is irresponsible to my mind in adding further confusion in the need for herd immunity
Derek
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Derek, if we believed everything we heard or saw in the media, we’d all be totally mad %% I did hear a highly qualified medical person say that there is no reason why different vaccines can’t be used. For example, AV for the first shot, and Pfizer, or one of the others, for the second. In fact, I’m fairly sure he said it may be a good thing to do just that. I’ll happily take which ever I’m given. O0
Peter.
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It is pretty vital that Oz (and NZ) complete their vaccination programmes with a high take up otherwise come later next year they may well find themselves in an isolated bubble in a world where the virus has largely been brought under control.
Colin
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It's a personal choice, but those who choose not to be vaccinated put the rest of the population at risk. My wife and I, as well as all our friends of similar age, have had our first jab, with our second due on July 2. I am happy to put my faith in the medical experts, not the conspiracy theorists.
Peter.
Once you get your second dose, you will be immune to the effects of the disease. Everyone else in the world could be hacking their lungs out and you would be sitting pretty. That's how vaccines work. If after the full regimen of doses you are still susceptible to being sickened and killed by the pathogen in question, what you've received is not a vaccine but some sort of experimental prophylactic.
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It's a personal choice, but those who choose not to be vaccinated put the rest of the population at risk. ..................
Peter.
Is it? We all accept rules for the good of society. Speed limits for example are there to protect society from the irresponsible implications of driving to fast. We all believe them to be wrong in some cases but accept them as necessary. There are lots of other examples. Medically we accept the need to wear glasses for driving if we cannot see sufficiently well without them.
Is vaccinating against Covid so different?
I am not interested in personal choice where it impinges on the safety of society as a whole.
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Bolton now has infection rate of 302/100k, down here it is 10/100k!
You can understand why the authorities are nervous.
Colin
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Bolton now has infection rate of 302/100k, down here it is 10/100k!
You can understand why the authorities are nervous.
Colin
How much does a Trump wall cost? ;)
That is the sort of level that has caused lock downs in the past. I understand what the Mayor of Bolton is saying when he argues that a local lockdown won't work as residents will simply travel elsewhere to do whatever is closed where they live thus causing wider spread. You cannot rely on people to act responsibly whatever politicians might say.
Lets hope that it is a problem largely restricted to the Indian community and others where vaccine take up has been lower.
Some of the stories about evading overseas arrival rules defy belief.
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Once you get your second dose, you will be immune to the effects of the disease. Everyone else in the world could be hacking their lungs out and you would be sitting pretty. That's how vaccines work. If after the full regimen of doses you are still susceptible to being sickened and killed by the pathogen in question, what you've received is not a vaccine but some sort of experimental prophylactic.
The vaccines do not confer immunity to the effects of the virus. Just as the flu vaccine doesn't give immunity. It is given to prepare your immune system in advance so that if you do pick up the virus it can act before the virus can cause severe damage to your cells. It is possible to be infected after the full vaccine has been given but it will only have a moderate or slight effect making you feel unwell instead of being unable to breathe and needing to be put on a ventilator. This is why the recommendation is to continue wearing the mask after vaccination. (To reduce the risk to others if you should be carrying the virus without symptoms, vaccines don't stop you carrying the virus even if they stop you being infected yourself.)
Jim
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Managed to get my first jab booked- absolutely ridiculous how long it’s taken for me to book an appointment- three days of continuous refreshing the NHS website to find a vaccine centre actually in a part of the country where I live or work! At one point they were offering the appointment at Kenilworth whilst I was working at Brize Norton. That wasn’t realistic to offer that kind of distance!
But glad it’s booked as is the second one. :-))
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I had my first A-Z shot on Tuesday. My wife was not due to have hers but the nurse said "bring you beautiful wife in" so we both had it and so far no side effects. Mind you, I have so many side effects from my chemo. that I probably would not notice another.
Melbourne has a weeks lockdown from tonight but it is the Indian version and spreading quickly so it will probably last a lot longer. Of course! an infected person went to the 'footy' and may have infected 10,000 others. >>:-(
Vaccination rates jumped 250% yesterday and waits for testing are at least 3 hours. <:(
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Complacency sets in, then it takes an outbreak to get people to have the covid test. Vaccination rates are low, but this is directly linked to the botched supply of the vaccine to vaccination centres. Australia did well to contain the virus in the early stages of the pandemic, but acquisition and distribution of vaccines has been appalling. Other factors causing low vaccination rates include apathy, the attitude that “Australia is one of the safest places in the world, so we don’t need to worry”, and concerns about the side effects, clotting etc, even though the risk is infinitesimal. Outbreaks, such as those in Victoria, are going to continue to occur for a very long time, and the only real defence is to have the vast majority of the population vaccinated so the severity of the effects of the virus is minimised.
Peter.
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Agreed. If you don't get most people vaccinated you will remain very isolated as you dare not let anybody else into your country as they might start an outbreak.
Even vaccinated people, Australian or otherwise, can still bring Covid into the country.
If nothing else the Indian variant has concentrated minds here and uptake has risen.
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There is an article on the BBC website about the situation in Australia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57224635
Colin
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This is a pretty well balanced review, understanding & presentation of our Australian COVID related framework and strategies
However it was written 2 days prior to the latest outbreak of COVID in Melbourne Victoria
From mid-night tonight, Victoria goes back into Stage 4 lockdown [again]
14 day Isolations have proved to be totally unreliable in confirmation that a person is not a [latent] carrier of COVID
If I suggested sending all International returnees be sent to the Simpson Desert in the middle of OZ for 6 months & see what happens, %) I probably would be considered not inline with Government Policy <*< or more to the point that the Government would like to do this, but would they then would be seen as inhumane? :-X
Derek
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has anyone thought about using the daft paper masks as fue lfilters for their glow motors ?
i cant see any other usefull porpose for them ?
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Just had my invitation for another Anti body test by Uk Biobank. had my previous one back in March.
Apparently that one does not tell whether my positive was due to my Vac doses or Covid whereas this test will.Should be interesting might get a surprise :-)
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Do any of us believe in the common sense and decency of all the English people that Boris is expecting with regard to the wearing of face masks & other anti covid measures or do we believe that it is the government spinning the story? Is all they have ever really cared about the NHS and avoiding pictures of ambulance queues?
Vaccines have largely broken the link between disease, hospitals and death for most people but the vaccine doesn't work for everyone.
Has any government minister ever tried going up to a group of strangers, asking them to put on face masks and believing without question that they would do so and will continue to do so? Do they believe that everyone will actually carry a mask to wear when appropriate?
As I am on the endangered list & I don't believe in the decency and common sense of all the population I have purchaed an FFP3 mask. I might look like an idiot but at least I will feel a bit safer if I can't avoid going to somewhere shared with others.
How many million cases are they expecting in the next few weeks?
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It amazes me that they're still talking about social distancing as if anyone is taking any notice anymore.
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Do any of us believe in the common sense and decency of all the English people that Boris is expecting with regard to the wearing of face masks & other anti covid measures or do we believe that it is the government spinning the story? Is all they have ever really cared about the NHS and avoiding pictures of ambulance queues?
Vaccines have largely broken the link between disease, hospitals and death for most people but the vaccine doesn't work for everyone.
Has any government minister ever tried going up to a group of strangers, asking them to put on face masks and believing without question that they would do so and will continue to do so? Do they believe that everyone will actually carry a mask to wear when appropriate?
As I am on the endangered list & I don't believe in the decency and common sense of all the population I have purchaed an FFP3 mask. I might look like an idiot but at least I will feel a bit safer if I can't avoid going to somewhere shared with others.
How many million cases are they expecting in the next few weeks?
Common sense and decency are in short enough supply to be considered mythical. I will continue to put my faith in my mask and sanitiser. I do have lots of sympathy for those who have to work in situations where they are forced into meeting with the ignorant and arrogant who whine about their "rights" while avoiding any of the responsibilities that go with those rights.
I've been noting the daily new case figures in my area to give a rolling 3 day average. Saturday 3 weeks ago, 115. 2 weeks, 196. Last week, 227. This Saturday, 420. The trend is not reassuring for a full ending to what is legally enforced and what is left to "good sense".
Has anybody else used one of those painting programs where you can "pour" a colour into an area? Remember seeing what happened when the poured colour found the missing pixel in the boundary? A reasonable illustration of how a contagion spreads.
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......................I will continue to put my faith in my mask and sanitiser....................
I assume that everyone is aware that basic and FFP2 masks are worn largely to protect others but that evidence (Cambridge study) suggests FFP3 masks are worn to protect yourself as well.
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I rather think there will be some arguments next week in places where people are effectively forced together such as supermarkets. I feel sorry for shopkeepers and shop assistants who are in proximity to a cnstant stream of starngers all day. Shops castill insist masks be worn (or no service) but would be sensible to keep the screens in place for a long while yet. Unitil the current outbreak dies down I will still be avoiding gatherings of people such as inside a pub although a meal in the garden will probably be OK if it isn't raining.
Something which doesn't get discussed much is that a large chunk of the population seem pruod that they don't read newspapers or watch TV news and probably have only the vaguest idea of what is going on anyway!
Colin
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I assume that everyone is aware that basic and FFP2 masks are worn largely to protect others but that evidence (Cambridge study) suggests FFP3 masks are worn to protect yourself as well.
The masks with valves don't protect anyone else as your exhalation goes straight to the open air. The FFP3s without masks are apparently uncomfortable to wear.
Colin
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The masks with valves don't protect anyone else as your exhalation goes straight to the open air. The FFP3s without masks are apparently uncomfortable to wear.
Colin
They are not uncomfortable for me but I am aware of a bit of effort breathing in. You quickly forget about it unless climbing a steep hill! Safety first. The problem is breathing out which seems to break the nose/mask seal and fogs my glasses. I have tried many remedies but only summer heat seems to stop my glasses fogging.
I suspect that all those who don't listen/read/view the news will somehow have found out that they don't need to wear a mask any more. They hear what they want to hear.
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In my opinion and apparently the same can be said for the brother in law, is that BJ and his cronies are easing up so that the vast majority of people DO catch the delta variant - why, most people have been vaccinated and have some immunity against having serious effects from delta (its just unfortunate that those who did not believe in getting the jab are going to be effected more than the rest of us, a case of serves them right) catching delta for someone who is vaccinated is only going to allow them to build better antibodies bolstered by the weaker antibodies fighting and in some cases losing against delta, but effectively the better immune system of those that catch any future covid will be less of a strain both on them and the NHS.
Its a cheaper way of boosting immunity in the populace, a case of they have been vaccinated - lets use it to fight the later variants.
Just my opinion
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I bought some IIR masks a while back, better than the cheapies and much better that the old socks some people seem to favour.
I agree with Warspite that HMG is letting the Delta variant burn through the younger generations who are less likely to be affected but there wll still inevitably be casualties from long covid and those that do develop symptoms which require hospitalisation.
It was inevitable that the Delta variant would take hold but the process could probably have been much slowed fown if the influx of passengers from India had been brought under control when the threat became clear to most people, but not it seems HMG.
I have two daughters, one just over 40 and one just under. They have had their first jabs but want to wait the full 8 weeks or so for the second to maximise their protection. Fortunately they both work mainly from home.
Seeing the crowds at Wimbledon and Wembley this week, hardly a mask anywhere, suggests there will be a big spike in infections soon, especially when you add in all the footie fans celebrating in the streets and pubs. I'm very glad we live in a rural environment!
Colin
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They are not uncomfortable for me but I am aware of a bit of effort breathing in. You quickly forget about it unless climbing a steep hill! Safety first. The problem is breathing out which seems to break the nose/mask seal and fogs my glasses. I have tried many remedies but only summer heat seems to stop my glasses fogging.
as someone who could have claimed exemption, this is the state of affairs for me when not wearing a mask, if I wear a light open weave scarf, I can till walk around slowly to shop, my mask has only ever been a lip service to the face covering rule, it covered my face, but I could still breathe, but did absolutely nothing to protect me or others, I have worn it to save tiring explanations at every shop, It was only when face masks came in that I even realised i had breathing problems at all, generally I breath deeply normally, that slight restriction was enough to drop my oxygen content below 95% in just a few steps of exercise. so I am cautious about the relaxation, in some ways it will make life easier for me, but I am wary that others will see it as freedom to crowd up and ignore social distancing. you bet that I will be trying to maintain a good seperation between myself and others even after the restriction lifts, but wearing the face covering ?
its also been a difficult time hearing others, as a tinetus sufferer it doesnt take a lot for me to not hear or mishear, and once again I had not realised just how much I relied on lip reading to hear what people said, so that again will be a useful side effect of returning to normality.
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Isn't this a case of going the "crowd immunity" route before the winter so the meds can get it out of the way as much as possible before everything else is thrown into the pot?
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Just to cheer you up a woman in Belgium now has double Covid 2 variants at the same time that could produce a good mutation
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According to the BBC report She was 90 years old and died in March. She had not been vaccinated.
Colin
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Nor underlying conditions
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I think being 90 years old might be considered to be an underlying condition...
Colin
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Considering it was the first ever reported case of a two variant infection I thought it was worth mentioning.
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Yes, but it was six months ago and easily explained by the unfortunate lady coming into contact with a variety of carers in her care home who presumably were infected by different variants.
I don't think it is anything we really need to worry about compared with the people attending Wimbledon and the Euro football finals all mingling together and infecting each other.
Colin
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I think being 90 years old might be considered to be an underlying condition...
Colin
Presumably in Belgium they didn't round up the oldies and jab them as done over here . The Boris mob might have made a dogs dinner over much of the recent pandemonium but at least they did a real good job over getting us all vaccinated
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At 90 she may have had medical conditions that precluded vaccination, best not to make assumptions.
I don't think the success of the UK vaccination programme owed much to Johbson's efforts. His judgement, time after time, has proved to be pretty disastrous and his latest efforts don't seem much better.
Colin
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Yes, but it was six months ago and easily explained by the unfortunate lady coming into contact with a variety of carers in her care home who presumably were infected by different variants.
Yes 6 months ago but the Beeb's report was only a day or so ago and I only saw it in todays paper. Though getting close to her age whilst I am not worried about it but would never suggest it is nothing to worry about not to mention.
Researchers from Portugal, (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33540596/) meanwhile, recently treated a 17-year-old who appeared to have caught a second type of Covid while still recovering from a different, pre-existing Covid infection.
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Click bait.
There have always been people who have diseases more than once where for most people having it provides immunity from further infections. Mumps, measles etc.
The only question that I would seek an answer to is whether a mutation is sufficiently different to overcome previous infection immunity for many people. I believe that the odd isolated case of multiple infection proves little.
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edit......Opps... >>:-( .........Second AZ injection yesterday [
2017.07.12] ....2021.07.012 ...... >>:-( ....after 12 weeks to the day.......no side effects...............Derek
[thanks Peter].........
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2017 Derek????? You must be living in a time warp {-)
We had our second dose 10 days ago, so we’re both fully vaccinated :-))
Peter.
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Click bait.
There have always been people who have diseases more than once where for most people having it provides immunity from further infections. Mumps, measles etc.
But no one is talking about getting the same disease twice so which part of having 2 different Covid variants at the Same time did you not get[/quote]
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All viruses mutate which includes mumps, measles, influenza and the common cold flu but we still call them the basic name of the disease just as with Covid.
People do get the same viral disease more than once. It is not that uncommon. Have you only ever had the common cold once in your life?
The case quoted might be important but I suspect that it might not.
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I am aware of that but again that is not the same as getting another version at the same time. As for how important that might be time will tell
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I am aware of that but again that is not the same as getting another version at the same time. As for how important that might be time will tell
The thought passes through - Have the occasions when I have had a really, really, bad cold been the result of nurturing two cold virususes at the same time? Is there anything in the rule book that says such a thing is impossible?
And if enough people are running around loose spreading their own variants, what are the chances of a few of them passing their bounty on to one person?
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From the Beeb website ( they who must be believed) HMS Queen Elizabeth (RO8) has become a possible plague ship with over 100 cases of Covid amongst the crew, all of who have been double dosed. What gives ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57830617 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57830617)
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I have always maintained that the double / single dose, DOES NOT give you immunity it just protects you from serious complications
I.E. double dose and you have a sniffle and a headache, single dose and you have the headache and hayfever type / heavy cold, no dose and you are more than likely to have either any of the previous or hospitalized and the chance of death, that saying even these could happen in rare cases to those with the highest dose level.
Being vaccinated is not a guarantee of immunity, you can still catch it and still transmit it that is where everyone is failing to understand - the jab is not a silver bullet >>:-(
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I have always maintained that the double / single dose, DOES NOT give you immunity it just protects you from serious complications
As far as I am aware, that has always been the official advice. I don't recall ever seeing any medical authority claiming that full vaccination gives full immunity, but it does, as you say, reduce the severity. However, from what I have seen in the media here, most, if not all of the new cases of covid, including the delta variant, have not been vaccinated.
Peter.
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Since the latest Covid outbreak caused by removalists from Sydney there are suggestions that the Montague Street bridge in Melbourne be moved to the Vic. N.S.W. border.
The tight 3-metre Montague Street bridge in South Melbourne is perhaps the most notorious truck assassin in Australia, with 54 crashes recorded since 2013. Social media and talkback radio lights up with ridicule anytime someone fails to notice the dozens of advance height warnings.
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However, from what I have seen in the media here, most, if not all of the new cases of covid, including the delta variant, have not been vaccinated.
Peter.
Sorry Peter but a fully vaccinated nurse in Sydney now has it. >:-o
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I heard this evening that, three adults in a family we know, have gone down with Covid, all had both jabs.
Kids brought it home from school.... {:-{
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I hadn’t heard that Brian and Martin. It will be interesting to see how severe their symptoms are.
Peter.
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Do you know how badly they have got it Martin?
Colin
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Whilst interesting and clearly a matter of great concern I am not sure that a small number of cases tells us much about the vaccinated population as a whole.
We should be very wary of extrapolating.
Transmission within schools and then to family members must be a real concern to pretty well everyone in the local area but then pubs, nightclubs and many other venues have exaxctly the same problems.
The numbers that I am waiting for, and fearful about, are 1-2 weeks after "freedom day".
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"Kids brought it home from school"
Now you know why the advert on TV says "Keep away from children" O0
Regards Ian.
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The problem is that a majority of the public do not understand what a vaccine is- most people seem to think that it’s a cure- very wrong indeed. The amount of lads I work with who don’t get that it’s not the cure just something to lower your chances of suffering the effects of the virus is unbelievable. It’s like most don’t remember a thing from their biology lessons about smallpox and how we prevented it becoming a killer as it was before.
You can still contact the virus- the vaccine is effective at preventing effects so you don’t get hospitalised from it. We will have to live with this virus forever like we do with flu and all the other nasties. We survived the 1919 Spanish flu epidemic and we will this one- in fact more people died from that virus than this one so we have that to be grateful for I suppose. We are just getting better at developing vaccines quicker than we did.
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I watch the news quite regularly, mainly the BBC for most things, sky only for the odd thing like the latest vaccination numbers and Al Jazzera for the tag line at the bottom in which it shows the number of cases and deaths globally, its now climbed to just short of 190 million cases and just over 4 million deaths, but the real numbers dont seem to be anywhere near these - when india was in the news a month or so back the number of cases really never increased and neither did the deaths in the tag line, China and india will never share the real numbers who died as it is cover up, and we all know how the chinese love to feign insulted when you question them - there basically habitual liars.
The wifes company went through the majority of the last 18 months with one fatality (but that was due to not being able to access normal services in the NHS, not covid) and 3 or so confirmed cases until last week when virtually half the staff have either caught it or 'pinged by the NHS', all report it is not the people they normally associate with that gave it them, but 'others', funny how it seems to be at the same time as football celebrations or commiserations depending on when they caught it. >>:-(
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The problem is that a majority of the public do not understand what a vaccine is- most people seem to think that it’s a cure- very wrong indeed. The amount of lads I work with who don’t get that it’s not the cure just something to lower your chances of suffering the effects of the virus is unbelievable. It’s like most don’t remember a thing from their biology lessons about smallpox and how we prevented it becoming a killer as it was before.
You can still contact the virus- the vaccine is effective at preventing effects so you don’t get hospitalised from it. We will have to live with this virus forever like we do with flu and all the other nasties. We survived the 1919 Spanish flu epidemic and we will this one- in fact more people died from that virus than this one so we have that to be grateful for I suppose. We are just getting better at developing vaccines quicker than we did.
Here here Nick,I'm still donning my HAZMAT gear.
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I was surprised to read on the paperwork provided after my second jab it also states that transmission is reduced after second dose (in addition to reducing the severity of you do catch it) This was first I've seen that statement so far. Perhaps that's the Scottish system only?
...At the moment it's pretty evident those we have in power have never done a risk assessment for anything. You can NOT use the term "common sense" in a risk assessment -it simply doesn't exist and can't be used as a mitigation. I'd they are relying on "common sense", then frankly, god help us all.
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I was surprised to read on the paperwork provided after my second jab it also states that transmission is reduced after second dose (in addition to reducing the severity of you do catch it) This was first I've seen that statement so far. Perhaps that's the Scottish system only?
It's in here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993 , even the first dose makes a difference.
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Thanks Phil, that may have been one BBC article that slipped my radar. I only noticed the statement on my second bit of paperwork, not the first but maybe they updated it after it was printed, or maybe they didn't want people to think they were OK after just one jab.
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I would rather have a free Coffee. %%
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........................ I only noticed the statement on my second bit of paperwork, not the first but maybe they updated it after it was printed, or maybe they didn't want people to think they were OK after just one jab.
I am feeling cheated. %) . We didn't get any paperwork with our second dose other than the sticker on the other side of the card that we got with the first dose.
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Vaccinations administered here in Australia are recorded on the Medicare data base, and can be viewed on line. Once logged in to your Medicare account your immunisation history is available. Additionally, in the case of the Covid shots, once you have had two you can download a Digital Certificate as proof. We have our certificates on our phones, and I also printed paper copies.
Peter.
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I didn’t realise that our Government has actually captured my [recent] immunisation history
If I attended an Airport with flight immunisation requirement/restriction, a scan of my medicard card has the proof……….
Pretty amazing…….I am impressed… :-)) ………
[Only issue is, my June 2020 Influenza jab was at a Pharmacy, & despite the requirements ….no record was made]
Is this the digital certificate you mention Peter?, or is there another link >:-o
Derek
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You can opt out of reporting any health issue to the government. My current cancer treatment is from an American pharmacy company and they do not want anyone else to have the information, even another department in the same hospital. >:-o
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Yes, you can opt out Brian, but we decided to stay with the system. It means that no matter where you are in Australia your medical history is available to any medical practitioner, great if you should become ill away from home. Some people objected because of privacy concerns, but our thinking was that our medical history is not a state secret.
Peter.
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Derek, that is the immunisation history, there is also the digital certificate that verifies that you have had the covid shots. It’s a separate document.
Peter.
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41 Deaths in Scotland covid given as primary or contributing factor. deaths occurred by july7 All had had tested positive after 2nd jab at least 2 weeks or more before.
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41 Deaths in Scotland covid given as primary or contributing factor. deaths occurred by july7 All had had tested positive after 2nd jab at least 2 weeks or more before.
Very sad but inevitable. Vaccine is never a guarantee but rather it just improves your chances.
We are very nearly at the beginning of Boris's great experiment. Fingers very firmly crossed.
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It rather looks like Johnson has lost his gamble - just as on every previous occasion. Lots of talk about a further lockdown now... <*<
Colin
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There's been talk about further lockdowns since day 1. There are almost as many options being bandied about as there are " experts " so who knows, or at this stage cares, who's right. I'm just going to go with my rules for me!
:kiss:
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CAN WE END THIS PLEASE . . . this is a model boat forum NOT a political/medical site . . . thank you .
Bill
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Never ceases to amaze how many medical ex spurts crawl out of the woodwork when disasters strike. Fell foul of this when after applying for a Blue Badge, how many there were employed by the local council in the Transport and Education department requesting me to verify a long standing breathing problem.
Even those in the medical profession can't agree, Thalidomide, MMR, etc. makes one wonder how we manage to survive. Not a Boris hugger, but like social services, police and other official organisations, they're damned if the do and damned if they don't. Sadly, those unable to use the quarter of a brain cell they possess, in many cases, rather than use common sense ( a commodity in very short supply nowadays) are "Guided" by the media pot stirrers.
For my weekly running the gauntlet to the local supermarket at 7.15am., I will still carry and wear my first line of defence, a polycarbonate screen which according to the experts at the start of the saga is 95% useless.
Regards Ian.
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Yes, Bill, this is a model boat site, but this discussion is on the Chit Chat board where anything (within reason) goes. COVID-19 is something that affects everyone, so it’s reasonable to expect that people want to talk about it. As long as posts are not offensive or inflammatory I see no reason to curtail the discussion.
Peter.
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And it is having a very direct effect on model boating activities and whether shows go ahead etc.
Colin
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Yes, Bill, this is a model boat site, but this discussion is on the Chit Chat board where anything (within reason) goes. COVID-19 is something that affects everyone, so it’s reasonable to expect that people want to talk about it. As long as posts are not offensive or inflammatory I see no reason to curtail the discussion.
Peter.
we'll have to agree to disagree . . .
Bill
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we'll have to agree to disagree . . .
Bill
IF you think that, just decide not to read this particular thread. "SIMPLES"
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It’s not a question of agreeing or disagreeing Bill, if you look at the Forum home page where all the various boards are listed, you will notice that the title says “Chit Chat, almost anything you like on here”.
Peter,
Moderator.
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What are model boat clubs doing about the change in regulations? Personally I see a big difference between standing socially distanced around the pond and indoor group meetings etc.
imsinking
If I am not interested in a topic I don't read it.
This topic has taught me a few things and corrected some of my thoughts as well a providing a vent for my concerns. I welcome the opinions of a moderate and generally sober group of individuals. Over the last 18 months I have regarded this as one of the most valuable topics on the forum. Just my opinion.
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Outdoor activities should be fairly safe but not so much at a crowded show so it is important to get infection rates down. However, at a model boat show I think you can be pretty sure that the vast majority of those present will have been double vaccinated by now given the average age of the attendees!
Colin
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Looks like an extra qualification to "No Animals were harmed etc." on the end title of films will be required. "No Humans were infected with Covid while making this film" >>:-(
Regards Ian.
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well i checked up online about getting my covid passport, it seems to do this you need the nhs app on your phone, which then displays a qr code, now as a complete (almost) luddite i access the internet through a pc (the web access doesnt allow for the covid passport), and my phone only does texts and phone calls, so it would seem I can only get a letter to say I have had the vaccinations, or perhaps I could just show the card which shows I have had the vaccinations, no restaurants, night clubs or pub for me then, I have had similar issues with track and trace, where I am seen as a nuisance because they have to go and find a sign in sheet and pen before I can get in places, because my phone doesnt do the track and trace app.
why does everyone assume you have to have a smart phone nowadays, they are useless to me as the screens are too small to read, and the buttons too small to push
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This one? - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-pass/
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thanks Martin that site has an alternative link to the nhs website, I was trying via my local gp nhs access, which didnt give the nhs website link.
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IF you think that, just decide not to read this particular thread. "SIMPLES"
Quite right , but 18 'chats' in one day drives down interesting topics off the 'recent topics' listing , other forums I'm on there's hardly a mention of said 'events' , 24 pages on this now . . .
Bill
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great, that gives me a pass that is active for 48 hours, I can print out a copy, but when I go on holiday without access to my pc or printer is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard. ah well be thankful for small victories I suppose.
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Anyone know what travel rules are for incoming back from France now? Am double vaccinated so OK to go for a quick business trip and clear my desk in Paris and get rid of my apartment in Guyancourt. But I'm going by caley sleeper then eurostar. Coming back do I now have to isolate in London before the caley sleeper or at home here in Inverness where my day 2 and 8 co vid tests are booked. Worth asking here as nobody else seems to know for sure!! I can see me cancelling going out on Tuesday now.
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As a possible compromise, couldn't the posts stick to factual info, like known travel/passports etc. and try to keep down the "should have been/Boris/Idiots etc." :embarrassed: bits?
Just to add, I use an old Nokia so I just applied for a letter on https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-pass/get-your-covid-pass-letter/ (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-pass/get-your-covid-pass-letter/as) as Martin added earlier. 4 days later in my wallet, ready to use.
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It rather looks like Johnson has lost his gamble - just as on every previous occasion. Lots of talk about a further lockdown now... <*<
The next lockdown is being implemented by stealth - gradually pinging everyone via the NHS Covid app so they have to self-isolate. Eventually, the country grinds to a halt because we are all locked away.
I've long expected a full lockdown in September, which can't be reviewed until April for fear of the expected exit wave hitting the NHS in winter. Combined with the removal of furlough and top-up for those on income support, it's likely to lead to 8-12m unemployed with no hope of ever working again as there simply won't be any businesses or jobs to go to. What does that do to public finances? Well, if you have a pension, you can forget an increase, more likely a serious cut. The NHS will have to be chopped back dramatically. MPs might not be able to stock up their wine cellar quite as fast as they have this year (https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/16/government-spent-more-than-73000-stocking-up-wine-cellar-in-one-year-14939095/).
The governments of the world don't want to publicly admit it, but the virus has won.
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OOOHHH you tease - another lockdown by stealth, think I will go MAAADDDDD {-) :P
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I've been convinced since March the way our government is managing this we will be back in lock-down of sorts again in Autumn.
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I've been convinced since March the way our government is managing this we will be back in lock-down of sorts again in Autumn.
The way it is running riot here, change Autumn to August. <:(
It only took the Netherlands 3 weeks to change their minds.
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The way it is running riot here, change Autumn to August. <:(
I agree, Brian. It’s getting worse by the day, and some people are not helping by refusing to comply with regulations.
Peter.
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South Australia went into 1 week lockdown yesterday. Our eldest daughter and hubby traveling to Darwin, have been forced into isolation at William Creek. Population between 2 and 6! but the Royal Flying Doctor flew in vaccines yesterday. %%
At least the pub is open until curfew at 6 pm
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The next lockdown is being implemented by stealth - gradually pinging everyone via the NHS Covid app so they have to self-isolate. Eventually, the country grinds to a halt because we are all locked away.
I've long expected a full lockdown in September, which can't be reviewed until April for fear of the expected exit wave hitting the NHS in winter. Combined with the removal of furlough and top-up for those on income support, it's likely to lead to 8-12m unemployed with no hope of ever working again as there simply won't be any businesses or jobs to go to. What does that do to public finances? Well, if you have a pension, you can forget an increase, more likely a serious cut. The NHS will have to be chopped back dramatically. MPs might not be able to stock up their wine cellar quite as fast as they have this year (https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/16/government-spent-more-than-73000-stocking-up-wine-cellar-in-one-year-14939095/).
The governments of the world don't want to publicly admit it, but the virus has won.
Thing is I bet most will just uninstall the App, had to take mine off ages ago as took up too much memory. I know someone who went to the Final, had the App to get in and then uninstalled it when they left.
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BrianB6......even though from the Eastern State, I support the RFDS in my own [very] small way....
You may be amazed at some of the Major Sponsors......
Coots Transport......K&S Freighters.......Scott Transport........Bulkhaul......[all South Australian head officed]
These Companies transport the majority of petroleum fuel [liquid & liquid for gas] around our big Land
Hats off to the RFDS :-))
Derek
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The RFDS operates in most states and territories Derek, I've been to the bases at Broken Hill in NSW, Darwin in the NT, and Cloncurry and Charleville in Queensland. They are a wonderful organisation doing a fabulous job, and deserve any support they can get. It's good to know that the big transport companies you mentioned are sponsors.
Peter.
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Just a few days ago O0
https://www.flyingdoctor.org.au/qld/news/rfds-crews-deliver-covid-19-vaccine-remote-and-rural-communities/
Derek
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This was the RFDS aircraft at William Creek yesterday.
For those who don't know William Creek is on Anna Creek cattle Station which is larger than Israel and has a population of about 19
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Wollumboola Base anyone? :-))
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Wollumboola Base anyone? :-))
Strewth, that takes me back. What year was that?Dave.
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I used to listen to it on the radio when I was a youngster. Best guess is 1955-60
John
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I used to listen to it on the radio when I was a youngster. Best guess is 1955-60
John
...........and the 1959 TV series that came from it.
The PC12 they now use is very different to the aircraft in the original TV series but I can't remember what it was. Anybody remember? IT looked very old fashioned to me as a kid in 1959!
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...........and the 1959 TV series that came from it.
The PC12 they now use is very different to the aircraft in the original TV series but I can't remember what it was. Anybody remember? IT looked very old fashioned to me as a kid in 1959!
I can't remember, but it had three motors, and if I'm not kidding myself, Bill Kerr driving. Versatile fellow, after being Hancock's straight man (Tony 'ancock, not the recent one).
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I can't remember, but it had three motors, and if I'm not kidding myself, Bill Kerr driving. Versatile fellow, after being Hancock's straight man (Tony 'ancock, not the recent one).
My very hazy memory can imagine corrugated sides like the Ford Trimotor or Junkers JU-52. Might just be my imagination.
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I can't remember, but it had three motors, and if I'm not kidding myself, Bill Kerr driving. Versatile fellow, after being Hancock's straight man (Tony 'ancock, not the recent one).
DeHavilland DHA-3 Drover
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De Havilland DHA-3 Drover? Didn't have a rippled skin. Think original in series had smooth engine cowlings, photo in official F/D site shows side cheeks.
Regards Ian
Well done plastic, didn't see following page.
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Bill Kerr ''I'm only here for 4 minutes'' if I remember and always had a newspaper in his hand in his stand up
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My very hazy memory can imagine corrugated sides like the Ford Trimotor or Junkers JU-52. Might just be my imagination.
No corrugations then. Just goes to show how a childs memory is not reliable after 60+ years.
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I guess you were thinking of the Anderson air raid shelter.
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Well if it's any consellation I'm back in Paris to get to my desk in the office after a year (didn't find what I was looking for), and my apartmen is OK for the first time ever after absense so I should be OK to cancel the rent after it being unused the last year. I jumped hurdles and red tape to get here and at the end of the day the authorities didn't care for anything as long as I was double jabbed. No "mandatory" paperwork or procedure was checked apart from vaccination certificate, despite the "mandatory" forms and declarations to complete being handed out in the que before border control for the folk who didn't have them already. My PCR test certificate was not required. We'll see if it's any different coming back, I wasn't niaive enough not to have return tickets and pre-booked day 2 and 8 tests for mandatory amber+ 10 day isolation when I get back.
...regardless whether you agree or not, it seems double jabbed is the path to normality, and rightly so in some respects if they can't work it out between everyone.
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Just wear a mask! Over the mouth and nose! Seriously I don't understand the revolt over the obligation to wear a mask....- by car, do you wear your seat belt?- on motorcycle do you wear a helmet?- in a boat do you wear a life jacket?- do you expect a surgeon to wear gloves, mask and a gown prior to operating on you?All this is mandatory in some countries. Do we feel controlled, is this a dictatorship???? (https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/ta7/1.5/16/1f644.png)(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/ta7/1.5/16/1f644.png)(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/ta7/1.5/16/1f644.png)When I wear a mask in public and in stores, I want you to know that...(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) I am educated enough to know that I could be asymptomatic and still give you the virus.(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) No, I don't ′′ live in fear ′′ of the virus; I just want to be part of the solution not the problem.(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) I don't feel like the ′′ government is controlling me ". I feel like an adult contributing to security in our society and I want to teach others the same.(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) If we could all live with the consideration of others in mind, the whole world would be a much better place.(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) Wearing a mask doesn't make me weak, scared, stupid or even ′′ controlled ". Makes me considerate!(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) When you think about your appearance, discomfort, or the opinion others have of you, imagine a loved one - a child, a father, a mother, a grandparent, an aunt, an uncle or even a stranger - placed under a respirator, alone without you or any family member allowed at his bedside.(https://www.facebook.com/images/emoji.php/v9/t48/1.5/16/1f535.png) Ask yourself if you could have helped them out a bit by wearing a mask.I copied and posted, Who's going to do the same?
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HERE HERE
I still wear my mask and I managed to collect plenty of blue rubber gloves from work when I was last in, so I wear them as well when I go in stores, I look weird with the gloves on and hand sanitise them as I enter - just in case that, what I pick up and put down does not transmit to something else I pick up and put down, they say common sense is crucial - more like common decency now, to think of others and the effect you have on their well being. Anti vaxers, more like Darwen candidates in my view, remember MY VIEW. :police:
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I see on the BBC News that a L.A. man who mocked the Covid virus has died so maybe it will change a few more non believers before they go the same way. :embarrassed:
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Brian......after some 10 months in virtual lockdown for the Public, in October 2020, I took on the challenge of applying and gaining a 'Service NSW - Covid-19 Safety Plan' for our Illawarra Live Steamers, then introducing the implementation of the requirements
This then allowed ILS to introduce Restricted Household Members runnings commencing on Sunday the 28th February 21
You would not believe the negativity and resistance displayed toward these requirements, [and yes...I still receive e-mails suggesting that Covid is a hoax]
ILS has now progressed into needing two differing registered SNSW Safety Plans, as the Government criteria did not have a template for a model steam group running trains in the open & under trees <*< ......but under the current restrictions are now back in total lockdown :police:
Derek
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Derek, I can fully understand the reluctance of people to comply with the rules but the lack of their effort to avoid infecting others is beyond belief. I can see if we have to go into a 6th. Melbourne lockdown because of the protesting idiots that they will be hunted down and transferred into the middle of the Nullabor. <*<
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Yes, some months ago I suggested that our Federal Government should offer 'nay sayers', a one-way ticket to the middle of the Simpson Desert......however this could be seen as inhumane O0
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Yes, some months ago I suggested that our Federal Government should offer 'nay sayers', a one-way ticket to the middle of the Simpson Desert......however this could be seen as inhumane O0
Only to the wild life already there. %%
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At least covid is still relegating the Olympics to second place in the news. %%
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At least covid is still relegating the Olympics to second place in the news. %%
Cheer up ! your medal tally is more than ours for a change (so far )
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I found a great spot for the nay sayers, a lovely holiday camp at Maralinga !!!!
[/size]Canabus
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Cheer up ! your medal tally is more than ours for a change (so far )
But will they be out of isolation before the track and field events start, might see a couple of impaled pole vaulters soon {-)
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I listened to an intersesting programme on radio 4 the last week called "The Moral Maze". One of my regular weekly listenings. This episode was basically about the change in the UK saying mass gatherings and parties including nightclubs can be allowed. Essentially does a "party-goer" have the same rights to do what they want because essentially it's a "human right" for those involved to party without restriction whether it has concequences for anyone else or not. My opinion is absolutely rigid, particularly as I'm looking after a sick person throughout the pandemic, but it was an interesting show to listen to to listen to people who think different, if not a little frustrating (actually damned hard to listen to their side of things and the blindingly obvious science behind it, I can't express my feelings here without moderation).
Rich
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....Thankfully, we seem to have got past the BBC journalists (one guy with a Scottish accent I can't put a name to at least) complaining they had to miss watching their olympic events for quarantine instead because someone out there tested positive during travel. It's not rocket science is it, if you have to chance 10-14 days isolation you just fly out before and assume you would have to do it and get over it first, if you don't it's a bonus? Maybe BBC wouldn't pay for anyone to sit in a hotel for a few days before the games if they were all in the clear. It's all daft.
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The plague killed off a far higher proportion of the population than Covid. >>:-(
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It certainly did, Brian. Estimates of the death toll from the bubonic plague in the 14th century range from 75 million to 200 million, which would have been a high percentage of the world’s population at that time. However, medical science has advanced a huge amount since then. I’m confident that Covid-19 will eventually be controlled, but everyone needs to do the right thing and be vaccinated.
Peter.
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I farted and hicuped at the same time yesterday, didn't now which end to put the tissue up to cover it happened so quick. It was more obvious when I got changed. I took a home test afterwards but might have confused the sequence as I think I have eggs going off somewhere I can't find since...
...Finally, my condition of hayfever seems internationally recognised! I've aparently had co-vid since 1982!
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Hi RST you make a good point about the plague,but there was an unexpected consequence from it and that was that it effectivly ended the subjugation of the population by those who had money and power. Namely the Long lived Feudal / serf system. With the deplorably high death rate the price of the working mans day suddenly increased and they could choose where they wanted to work or were tempted away by better offers.
I think the present time has shown how many of our own politicians feel that the rules are for them to decide but not for them to actually obey. I suspect it was ever thus!
I have a nephew in his mid forties who is a lovely guy but is adamant that the Covid pandemic is a government conspiracy. Both his father and I have tried to get him to see sense but....... Everyone else in my family and friends have had the jabs and my grandaughter is now one of those wielding the needles. Much of it is appreciating and listening to the logic and accepting it.
I also like the progrmme More or Less, and Tim Harford always gives a well presented programme. However when we had the terrible double act of Boris and Dominic and the Battlebus boldly advertising a half truth many people believed it. Those that did were not from the same group that would listen to Tim Harford getting to the bottom of the claims etc on a daily basis at the time and showing where the errors were. However Tim was talking to those already convinced and naturally suspicious of such outrageous claims and not the unbelievers.
So unfortunately RST those that believe the foolish conspiracies are not the ones who listen to the other side with rational arguments that illustrate the whole truth. As a Nation we do have our own views on what should be happening but also do accept election results. I voted to remain in the EU but if we had done so would we have been allowed the initiative to invest in the vaccines that we now have?
regards
Roy
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You can look much more recently than the plague. In 1918 - 1919 the Spanish flu killed around 50 million worldwide. Add that to WW1 dead at around 20 million. Both killed mainly young adults.
That sort of tragedy is what we have been trying to avoid with Covid.
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Also the so called 'Spanish Flu' came from Middle America with the troups going into Europe.
In those days and even my younger days anything strange would get a name like Spanish or Chinese appended to it. Anyone remember Chinese gooseberries? Now known as Kiwi fruit.
Although it seemed like a conspiracy theory at the time, it is looking more and more likely that the Covid strain came out of a laboratory in Wuhan. One argument is that the live animal markets allegedly banned now, had been in existence for many years and this virus should have appeared many years ago.
One thing is certain the Chinese will never admit it was all their fault. I met a Chinese doctor in January 2020 who was also an Imunologist working in Hong Kong and the main land who told me about a cover up that he had witnessed. At the end of a SARs epidemic a few years previously the labs had suddenly been descended on by government officials and all information destroyed.
This is first hand information not hearsay, I can get back to the doctor who told me via his sister who is also a doctor.
Regards
Roy
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you make a good point about the plague,but there was an unexpected consequence from it and that was that it effectivly ended the subjugation of the population by those who had money and power. Namely the Long lived Feudal / serf system.
Of course, in those days they didn't understand the principle of serf isolation...
Colin
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You’re in good form today, Colin :-)
Peter.
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My wife was talking to a neighbour last night whose daughter is a nurse at our local hospital. She said that they are at full stretch dealing with Covid cases who in most cases, surprise, surprise, haven't been vaccinated.
This is when hospitals should be tackling the backlog of operations etc. that have built up. Selfish is the one word that I can post followed by others that I can't.
Chris
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My grandaughter tells me that a post spreading on a social networks recommends there is no need to have the jab until you have become infected, when having the jab will give you an instant cure.
No need for science or facts.
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My grandaughter tells me that a post spreading on a social networks recommends there is no need to have the jab until you have become infected, when having the jab will give you an instant cure.
No need for science or facts.
..............and these people get to vote and are expected to act responsibly.
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Yesterday got text from local Health centre to book for my Covid booster this Saturday Booked ,today got text from NHS I am eligible for my booster so make an appointment. Last Friday I had my flu Jab also tomorrow booked for a covid test at the hospital who says the NHS is busy :-)
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I got a call the Tuesday morning on the Day Boris announced it to get my Booster and ful Jab, then had to cancel last Tuesday has have cought a pre covid illness, cough, cold and sore throat >>:-( ..Not a sniffle for 18 months and then this..
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My grandaughter tells me that a post spreading on a social networks recommends there is no need to have the jab until you have become infected, when having the jab will give you an instant cure.
No need for science or facts.
Hate to be harsh - but hoping they are Darwen candidates <*<
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..Not a sniffle for 18 months and then this..
Had the same thing a while back, cough lasted for weeks - not Covid though as I've had it before. It's quite common at the moment apparently.
Window cleaner was round earlier this week, he thought he might consider getting the jab sometime next year... We had a painter/plasterer in to do some work a few months back and his attitude was much the same. He said he didn't follow the news anyway.
Colin
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Had my booster yesterday :-))
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The next few weeks should be "interesting"
A few weeks I came up to my 6 months for a booster and went online. There were no appointments available within 50 miles in less than 3 weeks. I went to a walk in clinic and waited in line for a couple of hours.
Since then we have a new panic situation and they have suddenly opened up booster jabs to millions more people. I wouldn't like to be trying to book a jab at the moment and I suspect that the "walk in" queues will be awful.
How reassuring that having opened the flood gates I see in one of this mornings papers that they are hoping the volunteers will return. Does this really mean that they have opened the flood gates without putting the necessary structure in place first?
Lets hope that the current vaccines are effective.
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My grandaughter is a volunteer and they just get a phone call or text with options on venues.
Roy
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I got a text from the nhs alerting me to the fact that the local clinic was taking walk ins, walked in, waited behind 1 person at the door and straight through, 20 minutes later i walked out, i had missed the clinic set up by my GP, as they gave less than 24 hours notice and I was 200 miles away from home with no hope of getting back in time.
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The couple of hours that I spent at the "walk in" centre was interesting.
I joined a queue which didn't appear very long and after 15 minutes or so I got to the front and was told where to go. This turned out to be a seating area where people were being called in a very well organised way. That took another 20 minutes or so. When called out of there I found that I had joined another queue! This one took around 20 minutes and got me to the escalator. Guess what - at the top there was a sign in desk. Having signed in I (yes you guessed it) joined a queue waiting to be allocated a seat in a seating area from which I was called to be vaccinated.
To be fair to the volunteers it was very well organised but truly unbelievable in its complexity.
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It's quite interesting to note the numbers at any point in the system. I had an appointment today but I'd forgotten the time so I went onto 119 at about 9pm last night to check. I accidentally punched the wrong button and I was 539th in the queue with a projected waiting time of up to 5 minutes for a new test. I then punched the right button, i.e. the one to amend/check an appointment and this put me at number 231 in the queue. This put me through in under 2 minutes. In other words, the system was processing more than 13,000 per hour from a single, local call centre. It's almost certain to be 24hr operation so 300,000 plus per day. Seems OK to me %%
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Just thinking another 2 weeks and it'll be over a year since my first jab how time flies
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12 months this week since I was in intensive care with it, how time flies....
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Strange, is it not, that the WHO settled on Omicron for this variant when, from what little I remember of Common Entrance Greek 65 years ago, the next letter in the sequence is Xi.
Omicron, incidentally, is pronounced oh-my-cron.
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Not Oh-MAC=RON then? ok2
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Moronic🙄
Ned
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or spelt backwards
No Crimbo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kelly
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maybe they they didn't want to upset President Xi
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They deliberately left out "Nu" to avoid confusion with "new" since there are regular new variants and as you say no-one wants to upset President Xi
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Facebook: Foil Arms and Hog - WHY THEY CALLED IT OMICRON
https://fb.watch/9E_nz6F-JR/
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Had mine booster now ... arm still feels like it's been kicked by a horse! :((
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Clears in three days :-))
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Mrs B and I had hardly any effect at all, just a slight tenderness for a day or so. I believe it can depend on where the needle goes in, especially if it hits a nerve or blood vessel.
Still you might consider yourself lucky - this morning I had my 16th injection for an eye problem. The needle goes directly into the eyeball.... :o
Colin
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This one wouldn't have hurt though:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59524527
Colin
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Clears in three days :-))
Three days?!?! How am I going to play the Ukulele at the concert tomorrow?!
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...how good were you before? LoL
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Three days?!?! How am I going to play the Ukulele at the concert tomorrow?!
Badly 😜
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...you could blame it on co-vid and say no accounting for taste these days!
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Is there a Lamb-a-da variant?
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They are working on a Lambda version which sensors detect anti-vaxxers
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Plan B from Monday {:-{
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/59575030
Summary
Boris Johnson has announced tougher Covid-19 measures in England to control the spread of the Omicron variant
Guidance to work from home will return on Monday and face masks will also have to be worn in more public venues
Covid passes proving vaccination or a negative test will be required at nightclubs and venues with large crowds
The Plan B restrictions are "proportionate and responsible", the PM says
Health Secretary Sajid Javid meanwhile tells the Commons that Omicron is much more transmissible than the Delta variant
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When it comes down to it you can only catch it from somebody else. so stay away from somebody else!
Colin
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Last Tuesday week, recieved my 3rd [Pfizer] 3ml booster without issue %) , [the Doctor suggested I would be back in 12 months for the annual Covid booster]
However in this mornings news, it is reported that Israel is proposing a 4th booster ASAP for all :P
Unfortunately it appears that our Australian Politicians %% now are more qualified [to make health recommendations], than the Federal and State Medical professionals
[NSW had 3057 new cases on Monday, then another 3763 new cases on Tuesday]
Derek
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Derek, politicians know better than almost anyone, on any subject, it’s part of their training. They learn about everything at the same time they learn to speak for 30 minutes without actually saying anything.
Regarding vaccinations, I believe it will now be a regular occurrence for us to have booster shots at appropriate intervals, just like we do for the flu. However frequently it’s recommended for us to have a booster, I’ll be there, sleeve rolled up and ready to go. We’ve had our 3rd shot too, on Thursday last week, without any ill effects, with the case numbers rising it makes me feel a little safer, but I still wear a mask when shopping, and hand sterilise constantly.
Peter.
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Peter....we have a family friend [of my youngest daughter] now living in London with her young family......I shudder to read the stats for UK
Makes our NSW 3057 new reported Covid cases on Monday they 20th look like a near non event
Speaking of our Federal Government........they have again [today] just ruled on matters >>:-( , that our Health Professionals advised against
I do hope some of the population remembers this when in Election mode in 2022 >:-o
Derek
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just heard of a friend whose sister was in hospital with a potentially fatal illness, sister has now also caught covid and the family have been called in, so this will probably go on the figures as a death due to covid whereas it was a death where covid was present, still it probably doesnt matter to politicians who hold business meetings while supping wine in their back gardens.
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***OK, let's try and leave the politics out of an otherwise useful topic***
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***OK, let's try and leave the politics out of an otherwise useful topic***
Please suggest that to the Beeb! (Other forms of media are available %) )
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I had my booster on Saturday morning at a walk in centre thinking that I’d be waiting for an hour but was number 20 in the queue and was out within 10minutes! Even sorted out my Covid passport which wasn’t showing the second dose. Well chuffed.