Hi David,
Saudi Aramco, the big oil producer over there, have not published production data in more than two decades. Why might that be? They rely on past figures of supply to calm fears about the future - but this is, ultimately, a non-renewable resource.
Two of the biggest Saudi fields peaked in the 70's. The largest now online is likely unable to up its rate from 10mbd in order to reduce prices in the market - vast amounts of water are being injected into the wells to get the remnants out - and a decline in "the next two to three years" is "inevitable".
Matthew R. Simmons, president of a specialized energy investment banking firm - and a man who briefed Bush on energy policy - has said, "[OPEC's] predictive track record has been awful. In the land of the blind, reliable OPEC data is either untrusted or non-existent."
He's convinced this the start of the end of cheap oil, and easily available Saudi reserves are all-but spent.
Meanwhile, the cynical side of me would suggest that the Wahhabist Saudi regime vastly subsidises local petrol prices. Heck, in a country full of simmering dissent, where you can be publicly flogged, amputated and beheaded, and were you can neither drink nor have your wife drive you home afterwards, they need something to smile about.
Andy