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Author Topic: There's no one out there!  (Read 57874 times)

dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #250 on: February 24, 2010, 03:46:48 PM »

Thanks for the reference - an interesting paper indeed.


I find that many technical papers (particularly in Climate Science) are mined selectively for quotes which support the quoters stance - to such an extent that a paper which says one thing is often claimed as saying its opposite. You will recall that my belief is that we have really done very little yet in the difficult field of IE, and that we are only now starting to have a capability which has a chance of success, while your thesis was that we have tried and failed, so you believe that there is 'nobody out there', and, presumably, that we should not waste time and money looking. 

This paper runs through the little that has been done to look for extra-terrestrial intelligence so far, and points out some of the difficulties. Then it goes on to propose more sophisticated searches based on the latest astronomical findings latest and technology. It calls this 'interstellar archeology' (IE).

It mentions possible signals such as 'stellar salting' and looking for other kinds if stellar engineering, but only as a putative thing to look for. Beyond Annis' estimates, it mentions no work of any kind which has been done in looking for these signals. So why you say "No sign of stellar salting ie using the star to signal their presence" is beyond me - the paper only proposes that this is one thing that might be looked for, not that there has been extensive search and failure.

However, the most interesting point comes right at the end. The thesis of the paper you quote is neatly summed up in its conclusion:


"The presence of natural signatures that mimic interstellar archeology signals is a significant problem. Both Dyson Sphere searches and searches for artificially-driven Blue Stragglers are seriously compromised by natural signals. Conventional SETI is much better in this regard.

In short, interstellar archeology has many problems. On the other hand, the time may have come when interstellar archeology including SETI should be considered seriously as part of the web of science."


I would say that this neatly and comprehensively sums up my position, and does not support yours at all. It is kind of you to draw our attention to a paper which looks like the last word on the subject.
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #251 on: February 24, 2010, 08:05:02 PM »

Thanks for the reference - an interesting paper indeed.


I find that many technical papers (particularly in Climate Science) are mined selectively for quotes which support the quoters stance - to such an extent that a paper which says one thing is often claimed as saying its opposite. You will recall that my belief is that we have really done very little yet in the difficult field of IE, and that we are only now starting to have a capability which has a chance of success, while your thesis was that we have tried and failed, so you believe that there is 'nobody out there', and, presumably, that we should not waste time and money looking. 

This paper runs through the little that has been done to look for extra-terrestrial intelligence so far, and points out some of the difficulties. Then it goes on to propose more sophisticated searches based on the latest astronomical findings latest and technology. It calls this 'interstellar archeology' (IE).

It mentions possible signals such as 'stellar salting' and looking for other kinds if stellar engineering, but only as a putative thing to look for. Beyond Annis' estimates, it mentions no work of any kind which has been done in looking for these signals. So why you say "No sign of stellar salting ie using the star to signal their presence" is beyond me - the paper only proposes that this is one thing that might be looked for, not that there has been extensive search and failure.

However, the most interesting point comes right at the end. The thesis of the paper you quote is neatly summed up in its conclusion:


"The presence of natural signatures that mimic interstellar archeology signals is a significant problem. Both Dyson Sphere searches and searches for artificially-driven Blue Stragglers are seriously compromised by natural signals. Conventional SETI is much better in this regard.

In short, interstellar archeology has many problems. On the other hand, the time may have come when interstellar archeology including SETI should be considered seriously as part of the web of science."


I would say that this neatly and comprehensively sums up my position, and does not support yours at all. It is kind of you to draw our attention to a paper which looks like the last word on the subject.

I think it supports my position considerably and makes your position pretty untenable. Over 100 galaxies searched for and not one sign of stellar engineering of any sort or any galactic archaeology.

And you think that 'supports' your view? You're having a laugh, dodgey.
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dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #252 on: February 24, 2010, 08:54:52 PM »

Quote
"I think it supports my position considerably and makes your position pretty untenable."

I cannot see how anybody who can read can still hold that view. Your position (correct me if I am wrong) is that there is no point looking for extra-terrestrial civilisations because we have looked comprehensively and found nothing. And the conclusion of this paper is that looking for them will be difficult, but "the time may have come when interstellar archeology including SETI should be considered seriously as part of the web of science."

How on earth does that support your view that we should stop? It says exactly what I have been saying - that the task is difficult and we are only now starting to be able to attempt it. And so we should, as this paper requests...   
 


Quote
"Over 100 galaxies searched for and not one sign of stellar engineering of any sort or any galactic archaeology."

To be precise, 137. Out of approximately 80 billion in the universe. Oh, and not 'searched'. Annis' paper is entitled:

"Placing a limit on star-fed Kardashev type III civilisations (1999)"

He simply examined the archived data to see if, at the level of sensitivity available 11 years ago, there were any obvious outliers and could not find any at his chosen level of discrepancy. Without reading the paper (which is not available) I cannot tell what that is, but there will obviously be some level of variation in the brightness/mass ratio, and Annis is saying that any galactic civilisation using light output for their own purposes must be using less than a particular figure. NOT that these galaxies have been 'searched' and found to contain no civilisations.

And all your other claims do not even have this low level of justification - the paper does not say anything about searching for stellar salting or the like - it just says that this is a possible signal to look for. I do not think you have read the paper closely enough.

May I suggest that, rather than arguing about this, you send an e-mail to Richard Carrigan at FermiLab - carrigan@fnal.gov - and ask him if his paper supports your hypothesis before citing it in this rather tortured fashion?
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #253 on: February 25, 2010, 02:41:20 PM »

I've read the whole document. It virtually states the SETI approach of searching for an electro magnetic signal is a waste of time. Many people know SETI@Home in particular and the SETI League's approach is not going to produce the results you seem to suggest they will.

That's fine for you if you want to go with the flow but seeing as you claimed the SETI search is to all intents and purposes something that only started 10 or so years ago, I'd suggest its off beam.

Searching for a radio signal is, many people accept, a flawed approach. I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to find SETI still searching for a signal in 50, 100 or even 500 years time. If there's anyone left who can be bothered using such a flawed approach that is.

The search for galactic engineering should be far more productive in a galaxy teeming with life given the age of the galaxy. Obviously, if there are very few intelligent civilisations out there it perhaps reduces the ability to spot it but, it should nonetheless still be apparent. Or, if in fact as I believe we are currently the oldest technologically advanced 'intelligent civilisation' in the galaxy then, we wont find any. Neither will will find another radio signal either.

I find it amusing the lengths you are prepared to go to deride the sampling on 137 galaxies to support your position yet, by the same token, Kepler is doing the exact same exercise ie it is sampling a number of stars in the galaxy, to simply find Earth size planets. So by your premise, sampling of 137 galaxies is to be derided yet sampling of a 100,000 stars is not? What a very strange sense of perspective. Still each to his own.

The plain simple fact of the matter is, that if the galaxy is full of intelligent civilisation and has been full of civilisations more intelliegtn than us, we'd see many instances of their existence. We dont.

Unlike radio signals, if many intelligent civilisations pre existed us and, given the age of the galaxy and our 'recent' appearance on the block, there's absolutely no reason why they shouldnt pre exist us, even if they no longer exist, we should se evidence of such galactic engineering. Your supposition that we 'havent been looking long enough' is given the age of the galaxy proposterous just like your assertion that SETI has only been looking for 10 or so years.

I dont think there's any need to mail Richard Carrigan. His paper sets out  in a matter of fact presentation, the observations and results of those investigation. And guess what, not a single piece of evidence to support the theory that there has been or is any galactic engineering going on in the galaxy today. There's also no evidence based on a sample (similar to kepler's methodology) of such engineering going on anywhere else either.

And considering the age of galaxies, that is very, very telling.

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dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #254 on: February 25, 2010, 07:42:22 PM »

Quote
Searching for a radio signal is, many people accept, a flawed approach.

If you think it is a 'flawed' approach, why do you claim that, because it hasn't been successful yet, there must be nothing there? That argument would only hold if Seti@Home had a very strong chance of success.



Long rambles asserting that you are right and that anything I say is 'preposterous' and 'amusing' will do your argument no good at all.

Either answer my points or stop posting.
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #255 on: February 25, 2010, 09:28:25 PM »

If you think it is a 'flawed' approach, why do you claim that, because it hasn't been successful yet, there must be nothing there? That argument would only hold if Seti@Home had a very strong chance of success.



Long rambles asserting that you are right and that anything I say is 'preposterous' and 'amusing' will do your argument no good at all.

Either answer my points or stop posting.

DG, stop postulating will you? If I want to post in a thread I started, I will. In contrast you dont have to reply. To comment as you have done on 'flawed' approach yet say the arguement 'would only hold if seti had a very strong chance' is, I find pathetic.

Let me make it quite clear for you since you are labouring under your own impression of what I have said. SETI@Home and the SETI League's approach to the search is flawed. And that's not just my opinion you understand. If fact, the flawed approach is leading many, many users of SETI@Home to leave the project.

The SETI League's approach has at least a semblance of logic in that it performs a search of suitable stars one by one. However, given the nuber of stars in the galaxy, they are, I consider, going to be searching for a very long time. For the record and to save you time trying to reword what I have written, I dont think even the SETI League's search will be productive. Why? Because I think we are the oldest most technological civilisation in the galaxy right now.

SETI@Home is seriously flawed. It 'hopes' that be listening in at the 'watering hole' its going to strike lucky. Maybe it will But, unless ETI deliberately directs a high power narrow band signal our way (similar to the SETI League's approach in that they have selected a suitable star) they, SETI@Home are going to be waiting an awfully long time in my opinion ie forever.

As regards, long ramblings, I recall you going down that route. Yet another example of selective posturing.

Like I said, if I want to make as many posts to this thread as I want, I shall do so. If my opinion offends your sensibilities, dont read.
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Colin Bishop

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #256 on: February 25, 2010, 10:27:07 PM »

Tweedledum and Tweedledee ........ %)
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dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #257 on: February 25, 2010, 10:37:48 PM »

Quote
...SETI@Home is seriously flawed....

If it fails because it's flawed, then its failure can't support your argument that we have tried hard and found nothing. You can't have it both ways.

You have now completely reversed your earlier position when you were trying to persuade us that there had been extensive and competent searches for alien intelligence which had turned up nothing, and that was why there could be nothing out there. I was the one pointing out that Seti@Home had extensive limitations (as indeed it has). Do you think people won't notice this?

Simply repeating your belief will not advance your argument. You really seem to have nothing more to say.
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dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #258 on: February 25, 2010, 10:39:32 PM »

Tweedledum and Tweedledee ........ %)


....but it's awfully entertaining, isn't it?
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Colin Bishop

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #259 on: February 25, 2010, 10:48:06 PM »

Quote
....but it's awfully entertaining, isn't it?

Well, there is a sort of hypnotic fascination about it, like when two trains on parallel tracks are approaching a single set of points....  :o
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dodgy geezer

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #260 on: February 25, 2010, 10:51:13 PM »

Does anyone listen to the arguments, or do they just wait for the next installment?
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Colin Bishop

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #261 on: February 25, 2010, 10:58:26 PM »

I suspect things have got to the point where it's akin to the argument about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. But whatever floats your boat...

Colin
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Jimmy James

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #262 on: February 26, 2010, 12:27:08 AM »

Are we intelligent life???   I began to wonder!!!!  If so by who's yard stick ????   So far as I know we have yet to build a dyson sphere (if that denotes intelligent life )in fact as far as Space and Galactic exploration goes we're not even in the same class as the first caveman to paddle across a river on a log to see whats on the other other side.... To imply that we are the only intelligent life form in the universe must rank as one of the crazyest most short sighted statements ever made in the short history of mankind ..... We haven't even finished exploring and evaluating our own little planet yet .... and it's only 10 000 miles in dia.... how the hell can you say that we are the only intellgent life form in the whole Universe ???? We don't even know if there is life on the Moon or Mars yet (I'm not talking about little Green men, but any life form)
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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #263 on: February 26, 2010, 08:04:57 AM »

Of course there is.. :-))
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #264 on: February 26, 2010, 02:15:30 PM »

FRANK DRAKE, the founder of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), wants to take the search for aliens further: about 82 billion kilometres away, in fact.

At this point in space, electromagnetic signals from planets orbiting distant stars would be focused by the gravitational lensing effect of our sun, making them, in theory, more easily detected. Drake wants to send spacecraft there in a bid to overhear alien communications, which would be too faint for telescopes on Earth to detect.

It's neither a new or original idea, but it has never taken off because of the distances involved. With existing propulsion technologies, spacecraft would take hundreds of years to make the voyage, which is about 550 times the distance from Earth to the sun.

Gravitational lenses could also be used to transmit signals, amplifying them so they could travel further and potentiallyreach distant civilisations. It's also possible, Drake says, that intelligent civilisations have built an intergalactic internet using such techniques and are just "waiting for us to log on".

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527483.200-drake-wants-offworld-listening-post-for-alien-messages.html

You may or may not be able to use the url. New Scientist only let you read so many articles on line.

Anyway, its an interesting departure but alas for Dr Drake one doomed not to be realised. The cost of this will be huge and SETI is struggling for cash. Take the Allen Aray. Intended to be 350 telescopes used to listen for ETI. Well, they've got 40 odd so far.

If SETI cant get funding for the remaining 300 or so, what hope of they of getting a satellite in orbit. It'll never get off the ground (sorry about the pun!)
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #265 on: February 26, 2010, 02:39:06 PM »

Are we intelligent life???   I began to wonder!!!!  If so by who's yard stick ????   So far as I know we have yet to build a dyson sphere (if that denotes intelligent life )in fact as far as Space and Galactic exploration goes we're not even in the same class as the first caveman to paddle across a river on a log to see whats on the other other side.... To imply that we are the only intelligent life form in the universe must rank as one of the crazyest most short sighted statements ever made in the short history of mankind ..... We haven't even finished exploring and evaluating our own little planet yet .... and it's only 10 000 miles in dia.... how the hell can you say that we are the only intellgent life form in the whole Universe ???? We don't even know if there is life on the Moon or Mars yet (I'm not talking about little Green men, but any life form)
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You are right to ask the question JJ or FB!

Although the human species is capable of some atrocious acts both to its self and other species, it also has compassion. Its self aware and has made technological advances no other species on the planet has or is capable of (technologically, at least).

Many people when discussing ETI or indeed life here on Earth state there is no intelligent life here. Perhaps that's rather tongue in cheek but nevertheless, while some sections of our species do seem to drag us down, they are, thankfully, the minority.

Some people like to argue that ETI would be so alien to us, they wouldnt recognise us or us them. That may be true for some ETI but it wouldnt be true for allETI. If divergent evolution takes its course, both outcomes are likely. One may be more prevalent than the other or they may be roughly the same in number.

Likelwise, ETI could be benign or malevolent. Again, divergent evolution taking its course, both outcomes are likely and as above, one may be more prevalent than the other etc.

There is however a theory called the antropic principle. The anthropic principle is based on the implicit assumption that life must operate on similar chemistry to our own. Although this does not mean every ETI will be exactly like us, it does suggest ETI will be similar to us.

As regards levels of intelligence and whether we are intelligent, there is a scale used to determine this. It is called the Kardashev Scale. There are currently 3 levels of intelligence although other people have suggested this could be extended to 5 levels. These are;

Type I — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet .

Type II — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star,

Type III — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy.

I seem to remember Type 4 would be a civilisation capable of harnessing the power from the universe while Type 5 would be a civilisation capable of harnessing the power from multiverses!

Anyway, as a civilisation we are not yet a Type 1. We arent very far from it mind. However, a civilisation needs to be a Type 2 to be capable of building a Dyson Sphere construct. And just returning to the 'no one out there' theme, seeing as we see no evidence in our galaxy either now or in the past of Dyson Sphere constructs, its reasonable to deduce there have been no Type 2 ETI in the Milky Way or other galaxies so searched todate!

Im not familiar with anyone saying in this thread we are the only intelligent lifeform in the universe though. I suspect we are in this galaxy right now based and firmly believe this.
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #266 on: March 06, 2010, 03:16:31 PM »

Some interesting articles from the Times OnLine regarding the search for ETI's.

For the life of me though, I do wish these people would stop asking the question as 'Are we alone in the universe. They should limit themselves to the Milky Way Galaxy first and foremost since its our neighbourhood. The universe is far too immense plus, scientists now consider they are on the verge of confiming we live in a multiverse not a universe.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7039570.ece

It is 50 years since Frank Drake, the godfather of SETI, began systematically to scan the night skies for messages from intelligent life. Does 50 years of silence mean that we are alone? Or does it simply mean that, in an enormous and expanding Universe, first contact will inevitably be elusive?

In our exclusive extract from his new book, Paul Davies, the astrophysicist, argues that it is time to rethink SETI. He says that we must cast aside our preconceptions, our tendency to imagine all alien life through a human-shaped prism. If there is somebody out there, we need to find new ways to make contact.

Well I dont want to say 'I told you so' but there you go! Just listening out in the very vain hope of finding a signal is fatally flawed, whether you use 20 or so headless pc's or not.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7039709.ece (An interesting item in this article is something called Lorimer's pulse.)

But it is a needle-in-a-haystack search without any guarantee that a needle is even there. Apart from one or two intriguing incidents all attempts have so far been greeted with an eerie silence. What does that tell us? That there are no aliens? Or that we have been looking for the wrong thing in the wrong place at the wrong time?

Yep, there it is again, we have 'been looking for the wrong thing.'

'Traditional SETI has become stuck in something of a conceptual rut. Fifty years of silence is an excellent cue for us to enlarge our thinking about the subject. The traditional approach to SETI is based on the belief that alien civilisations are targeting Earth with narrow-band radio messages. But this “central dogma” simply isn’t credible.' (The 'central dogma' quote isnt mine btw!)


Further articles http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7039288.ece (not sure about this one myself!)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7046683.ece (short article on Dr Frank Drake)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7046603.ece (Jill Tartar, inspiratin and co writer of the film 'Contact' with the late Carl Sagan)
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #267 on: March 06, 2010, 07:35:39 PM »

This is another interesting article from the Times On Line http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article7040864.ece regarding searches to find out if life started twice here on Earth.

Interesting, the search for this 'alien' terrestrial life is being conducted in Mono Lake which has high concentrations of arsenic.

'Arsenic is chemically close to phosphorus. While phosphorus is a primary building block of life on Earth — an essential component of DNA and ATP, the energy molecule — arsenic is a deadly poison. In Mono Lake there are micro-organisms that live with arsenic. But they don’t incorporate it into their biology.'

Colin Pilger, he of the failed Beagle 2 Mars probe, is reported to have said one must be 'off your trolley' looking for life based on arsenic.

Dr Wolfe-Simon stated her experiments are not yet over but is quietly pleased with the progress she is making. “We have some very exciting data,” she says. The results should be published by the end of this year.

Perhaps Pilger should display a little humility over his teams failure for the successful entry of Beagle 2 into the Martian atmosphere instead of being so sceptical of other's work.
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Jimmy James

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #268 on: March 06, 2010, 08:51:01 PM »

Justaboatonic
 Your virus Sounds as if it would react like a cancer (Maybe we are being contacted and don't know it  {:-{) to me ... However The "experts" say we can't go faster than the speed of light --- I agree we can't at the moment--- but the same experts said that if man exceeded 35/40 MPH he would suffocate--- they also said man can't fly and so far man can't!!! But man can sit in or on a machine and the machine can fly --- Splitting hairs I know --- But man can't fly --- Yet!!! But it is said that "When man starts living on the moon he will be able to fly"  --- Splitting hairs again because he will need some kind of wings--- This could go on for ever ---But the point is --- I think the speed of light is another barrier like the sound barrier I just think we haven't found or invented the maths or the equipment to be able to exceed it YET... I also think we haven't yet invented the equipment to find other intelligent life... On a lighter note, so far, we can't hold a conversation with a Dolphin --- Yet --- As I said earlier in this thread --- I think it is the hight of arrogance to think we are the only intelligent life in this Galaxy never mind the universe ...its too big, to be empty O0 And if we don't blow ourselves or the Earth up or get wiped out by some big space rock I think we will go to the stars and meet other ETL     But be honest if you lived in this part of the Galaxy would you go out of your way to meet us... I wouldn't and I'd make sure the family silver was well hidden...
Jimmy James
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justboatonic

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #269 on: March 07, 2010, 11:41:13 PM »

Justaboatonic
 Your virus Sounds as if it would react like a cancer (Maybe we are being contacted and don't know it  {:-{) to me ... However The "experts" say we can't go faster than the speed of light --- I agree we can't at the moment--- but the same experts said that if man exceeded 35/40 MPH he would suffocate--- they also said man can't fly and so far man can't!!! But man can sit in or on a machine and the machine can fly --- Splitting hairs I know --- But man can't fly --- Yet!!! But it is said that "When man starts living on the moon he will be able to fly"  --- Splitting hairs again because he will need some kind of wings--- This could go on for ever ---But the point is --- I think the speed of light is another barrier like the sound barrier I just think we haven't found or invented the maths or the equipment to be able to exceed it YET... I also think we haven't yet invented the equipment to find other intelligent life... On a lighter note, so far, we can't hold a conversation with a Dolphin --- Yet --- As I said earlier in this thread --- I think it is the hight of arrogance to think we are the only intelligent life in this Galaxy never mind the universe ...its too big, to be empty O0 And if we don't blow ourselves or the Earth up or get wiped out by some big space rock I think we will go to the stars and meet other ETL     But be honest if you lived in this part of the Galaxy would you go out of your way to meet us... I wouldn't and I'd make sure the family silver was well hidden...
Jimmy James
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Hi JJ.

You are right about all the barriers they said couldnt be broken. However, the SOL does appear at the moment to be an unbreakable, universal constant barrier despite what Star Trek and the genre tells us. The major problem appears to be the amount of energy needed to go faster than SOL.

One day it may be possible to create a warp or alcubierre drive but that seems far, far off into the future.

Regarding the virus, yes it does sound a little like a cancer. However, I guess in this case, its a benign cancer rather than malignant one that the original writer proposes. TBH, this self replicating virus is very similar to von Nueman probes (I think. I always get Bracewell and vN probes mixed up!). The idea being that an intelligent species would send out these self replicating probes to find and contact other ETI.

This touches on a point I made in other posts in this thread. Given the age of our galaxy (13+ billion years), its diameter (100,00 light years) and even if self replicating probes travelled at 1% of SOL, one self replicating probe would produce enough 'offspring' to have covered the whole Milky Way galaxy in roughly 10 million years. There has been plenty of time for this to happen not once, twice or three times but, many times if ETI's were out there. But, there's absolutely no evidence of any such probes having been this way. Ever, in 13+ billion years.

The question of us not looking (for a signal) long enough or not having the right equipment to search for ETI is one I have to disagree with. SETI's approach of looking for a signal is fatally flawed. Even the articles in the Times On Line say as much, that seti is entrenched in its method and that other methods would be better.

It is correct our current telescopes wont see ETI evidence on distant exoplanets. But, our telescopes could spot signs of galatic engineering ie Dyson Sphere constructs, Bracewell, vo Nueman probes, stellar 'salting' etc.

With respect though, thinking we are the only intelligent civilisation in our galaxy (not universe) right now isnt arrogance. One has to look at the age of the galaxy, the age of our solar system then such things as a star being of the right 'type' so it lives long enough ie it mustnt be a brown dwarf (too cold or tidally locking a planet) or too large like Sirius (or bigger) such that the star has a relatively short life.

Its estimated only 10% of stars in our galaxy are like our own Sun. But then you have to factor in how many of those Sun's have a solar system like ours. Of those solar systems, how many of them have a planet in the habitable zone ie neither too close or too far away from the star?

Next, if life did evolve to intelligence on those planets, instead of dinosaurs being wiped out by an asteroid, how many of those planets had the intelligent life wiped out by a disaster? A paper produced by two respected authors and called the Rare Earth Theory goes into considerable depth why our Earth may be a very rare phenomenen.

Its for all the reasons I have mentioned in this thread just why I think we are the oldest, most intelligent civilisation in the galaxy right now. That doesnt mean I dont think in the past, there havent been a number of similarly intelligent civilisations in our galaxy. But again, because of the age of the galaxy they and ultimately we, die out and rarely if ever, co exist at the same time.

I dont think there have been other ETI's in the galaxy that have been significantly more advanced than us either. If they had of been significantly more intelligent, Im convinced we would easily spot signs of then via galactic engineering or artefacts such as bracewell or von Nueman probes.

I think it is very likely microbial life will be common in the galaxy. I think plant life will be less common and animal life even more less common in our galaxy. I wouldnt rule out one or two civilisations in the galaxy right now who are significantly less technologically advanced as us ie may be stone age or pre industrial revolution types.

I suspect galaxies larger than our own, such as Andromeda, will potentially have a few more ETI's co existing at the same time but, purely because it is a bigger galaxy than our own. Conversely, I suspect some smaller galaxies may not have any ETI at all since fewer stars means less chance of the 'right' circumstances occurring to support that intelligence.

IMVHO, we dont live in a Star Trek environment where the galaxy is teeming with all this intelligence. The universe may have or have had many ETI's but even so, I dont think any galaxy will be teeming with it.
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malcolmfrary

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #270 on: March 08, 2010, 11:02:36 AM »

Whether there's one or a gazillion of them out there, if they are not seen, for all practical purposes, they don't exist.  We have been emitting radio signals for about 100 years.  What we have been emitting has not been a coherent recognisable signal, and would almost certainly be lost in the background noise of the cosmos not long after getting outside the solar system. 
If we had been transmitting a beacon type of signal, it would be recognisable a good deal further.  We would probably have become bored, and given up by now.  If there is something comparable out there, they may very conceivably have the same attention span as us humans.  Anybody remember the KitKat advert with the photographer and the pandas?  The one where he spent the day waiting with his camera on it tripod for them to come out?  And, while his back was turned and he was enjoying his delicious snack, they came out, did a roller skating dance routine and went back just before he re=assumed his alert stance?  We could have that same problem.  If "they" only broadcast until they got bored, the signals could have come and been and gone.  They could well have passed us by before we started looking. 
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polaris

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #271 on: March 08, 2010, 07:28:29 PM »


Dear All,

Maybe we are not being told everything... in fact we will be the last to know - we will be the last to know after those who know deem we might just should know!... we are after all only the Tax Payers and the mere basic population!!! :(( >:-o :-)

Regards, Bernard
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Jimmy James

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #272 on: March 08, 2010, 08:47:02 PM »

OK Gang,
 You are possably Correct about ETL in a closely human related form, But I think we are using the wrong yard stick ... Why doze ETL have to live on an earth like planet or even have a Sol or E type star? when you talk of ETL I think you need to be  thinking more outside the box not just basing your assumptions on carbon based life forms on E type planets ... It is only in the last few years that we have discovered life in the deepest oceans living under thousands of pounds of pressure in temp's of  +200 deg C (around volcanic vents) OK it's only a few sea worms and crabs BUT science a few years ago said life under those conditions was imposable. Wrong Again!!!
 SETI is looking for the type of signal we would send if we were out there ie: you are all looking for humans... Their is probably some ETL being sitting or floating on a world close to a Blue Star saying exactly the same thing we are because they can't believe life could exist on a planet close to a yellow star...... Light blue touch paper and........ ;)
Freebooter :-)) %%
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malcolmfrary

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #273 on: March 09, 2010, 12:58:35 PM »

To paraphrase, "It's life, Jim, but not as we know it".
Just couldn't resist  {-)
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Roger in France

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Re: There's no one out there!
« Reply #274 on: March 09, 2010, 03:39:19 PM »

Define "life"?

Roger in France
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