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Author Topic: Falklands Oil Row  (Read 18997 times)

The long Build

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2010, 07:46:47 pm »

armed with a 20kt :) target Buenos aires !!! :D that'll shut them up!

Nope can't do that, we would have to cross their airspace and we don't have written permission...and don't they film wipeout around there ?... and come on its only the Government we need to sort out , 20kt bit over the top..Now we could kill 2 birds with 1 stone here , don't our MP's want to get a war medal !!  send them on the first attack wave using some of the equipment they make our troops use.. Or not as the case may be..
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #26 on: February 20, 2010, 07:48:39 pm »

Er, we dont use them anymore. We use TriStars

http://www.raf.mod.uk/equipment/tristar.cfm

Unfortunately, we don't have 11 of them....
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #27 on: February 20, 2010, 07:50:32 pm »

Quote
I suspect that Argentina could take the Falklands again if it tried

Unlikely. How would the Argentinian Special Forces get there? How would the invasion force land in the face of a couple of hunter killer subs armed with Spearfish and Harpoon missiles which would be virtually undetectable? It would be like shooting fish in a barrel.

The previous invasion succeeded by virtue of surprise, no naval defence and virtually no UK ground forces. The situation is vastly different today. An amphibious operation against a forewarned enemy requires overwhelming strength, not something the Argentinians are in a position to deploy. And they are still using Skyhawks nearly 30 years on, aircraft which were obsolescent back in 1982 and were only effective then due to the bravery of their pilots and inadequacies in British missile defences.

Colin
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #28 on: February 20, 2010, 08:36:14 pm »

Unlikely. How would the Argentinian Special Forces get there?

The same way special forces always get there - dropped by submarine. With a suitable set of rockets to take out the radar and aircraft hangers from a distance if they don't want to get too close...

How would the invasion force land in the face of a couple of hunter killer subs armed with Spearfish and Harpoon missiles which would be virtually undetectable? It would be like shooting fish in a barrel.

We can hardly have 40 subs scattered round the island on constant alert. Subs take time to get into position. An initial assault from the air takes less than an hour to get there, after the radar cover is knocked out. A ship takes a day to get there - less if it's at sea already. Given the huge delay in sub comms I suspect there could be 20 cargo ships tied up in Stanley before any UK sub was even told about the attack - much like last time. I believe the Argentines have been building good radar installations, so they would be aware of sub positions if they put their scopes up...

The previous invasion succeeded by virtue of surprise, no naval defence and virtually no UK ground forces. The situation is vastly different today. An amphibious operation against a forewarned enemy requires overwhelming strength, not something the Argentinians are in a position to deploy.

We have 500 men down there, no armour and two helicopters. Any attack from Argentina will be a tactical surprise, given the short distance they are away. The Argentine army can (probably!) handle 500 men.

We also have a couple of boats down there. If they were in a useful position they might be dangerous, but they could equally well succumb to surprise torpedo or missile attack. If I wanted to really defend the islands against surprise attack I would need a host of men, lots of detection kit and anti-aircraft scattered all around the coast, and land-to-sea missile bases at regular intervals.

I'm not saying we wouldn't get the islands back again, once we had circled them with warships and prevented reinforcements, just like last time. But I think that a surprise attack has as good a chance of gaining the islands as last time. Of course, such an attack would be pointless unless you were prepared and able to hold the islands against a high-tech navy using cruise missiles and drones against you, which the Argentines are probably not capable of doing....


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The long Build

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #29 on: February 20, 2010, 08:52:10 pm »

We have 500 men down there, no armour and two helicopters. Any attack from Argentina will be a tactical surprise, given the short distance they are away. The Argentine army can (probably!) handle 500 men.

They only just about managed it last time and we had a lot less..

I have read that we have over 1200 psnl down there, 4 Euro Typhoons , HMS York on station (apparently just happened to be in the area)  and a Refuelling plane down there plus other bits and pices , just can't find the link again..
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justboatonic

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2010, 09:03:22 pm »

We have 500 men down there, no armour and two helicopters. Any attack from Argentina will be a tactical surprise, given the short distance they are away. The Argentine army can (probably!) handle 500 men.

They only just about managed it last time and we had a lot less..

I have read that we have over 1200 psnl down there, 4 Euro Typhoons , HMS York on station (apparently just happened to be in the area)  and a Refuelling plane down there plus other bits and pices , just can't find the link again..

And HMS Clyde! Dont forget the Clyde.
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2010, 09:05:55 pm »

We have 500 men down there, no armour and two helicopters. Any attack from Argentina will be a tactical surprise, given the short distance they are away. The Argentine army can (probably!) handle 500 men.

They only just about managed it last time and we had a lot less..

That was the 'probably'! But in fact the Booties were holed up going nowhere and the game was up when the armour came ashore.

I have read that we have over 1200 psnl down there , HMS York on station (apparently just happened to be in the area)  and a Refuelling plane down there plus other bits and pices , just can't find the link again..

As well as 500 infantry, we have radar and airport personnel, some mine detection units, the crew of two boats (York and a patrol boat, I expect - two ships are kept on permanent station there), a transport plane, a refueller for the Eurofighters and a couple of Sea Kings. Could well be 1200 total heads.  I still don't think that's an impossible force to overcome.
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The long Build

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2010, 09:12:31 pm »

Not Impossible, but I would not like to be on the Argentina's Team..

Hopefully and most likely we will never get this far , more like their Politicians raising the issue to deflect the population thoughts away to something other than whats happening at home..  You know the same thing are politicians do..
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2010, 09:24:51 pm »

Current reports confirm 1,000 military personnel plus at least one nuclear sub. Just one sub, Conqueror, was enough to keep the Argentine navy in port after the initial invasion last time round and today's subs are even more effective. Why would we need 40 subs?!!! One or two would be easily able to detect an invasion fleet given the current capabilities of their sonar and other intelligence inputs.

Any attempt at invasion would be a huge gamble and likely to incur severe losses.  Given satellite surveillance and a high level of alertness surprise would be very hard to achieve. There would be plenty of giveaways to indicate that an invasion was potentially in prospect.

Only a handful of special forces could be landed by submarine with hand held weapons and they would need some form of preliminary reconnaissance to identify their targets. It is unlikely that the Typhoons would be parked on the runway, floodlit with big bullseyes painted on them. Do give the military credit for at least basic competence!

Colin

Colin
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2010, 09:30:20 pm »

... most likely we will never get this far , more like their Politicians raising the issue to deflect the population thoughts away to something other than whats happening at home..  You know the same thing are politicians do..

Indeed. I am sure that is true. The Argentine Navy have not bought any German submarines recently. The time to worry is when they put in a big order for those. But last time they should have waited until they had received a big naval and missile order, and we had sold off our aircraft carriers and amphibious craft. They did not. So they have a track record of jumping the gun... :-)
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2010, 09:35:35 pm »

Quote
So they have a track record of jumping the gun..

Not really, our politicians at the time, including the sainted Thatcher, sent out the message that the Falklands were very much a peripheral interest by signalling the witdrawal of HMS Endurance and the Argentinians acted accordingly. They believed that there would not be the political will on the part of the UK Government to retake the islands and initially they weren't very far off the mark.

Colin
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2010, 10:12:20 pm »

Current reports confirm 1,000 military personnel plus at least one nuclear sub. Just one sub, Conqueror, was enough to keep the Argentine navy in port after the initial invasion last time round and today's subs are even more effective. Why would we need 40 subs?!!! One or two would be easily able to detect an invasion fleet given the current capabilities of their sonar and other intelligence inputs.

Nobody reports accurate positions of nuclear submarines. We would say that there was one there, wouldn't we? Submarines are not magic, and they don't like shallow water, where they are easy to detect and vulnerable to air-dropped weapons. So they like to sit south of the Falklands, which are 150 miles across by 100 miles wide. A big area for a sub to cover. Remember that ships from Argentina are sailing all around this area constantly - they can go in as close as 150 miles without breaching the sovereign zone - that doesn't give many hours to arrange an interception. If a sub is forced to manoeuvre in water about 200m deep it is very vulnerable - it would be worth the ARA sacrificing a destroyer to reveal a sub's position which could then be hit by helicopter-dropped torpedoes.   


Any attempt at invasion would be a huge gamble and likely to incur severe losses.  Given satellite surveillance and a high level of alertness surprise would be very hard to achieve. There would be plenty of giveaways to indicate that an invasion was potentially in prospect.

It would be nice to think so. But when your enemy is that close it is hard to move rapidly enough.


Only a handful of special forces could be landed by submarine with hand held weapons and they would need some form of preliminary reconnaissance to identify their targets. It is unlikely that the Typhoons would be parked on the runway, floodlit with big bullseyes painted on them.

Only a handful is what you need, and what you use. And it's not hard to get good intelligence on an island 300 miles away when there is regular passage of people between the two places, and when the aircraft are regularly scrambled to intercept Argentine Orions and the like. I can think of lots of ways of hitting some aircraft without too much difficulty, including sitting by the cliffs at the end of the runway with a Stinger or two. Or even just hitting the fuel dump. I haven't got access to Argentine intelligence, but I might guess that this is where they are parked at night: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=-51.684809,-57.782056&spn=0.0013,0.003449&t=h&z=18%3E


Do give the military credit for at least basic competence!

It's not the military I'm worried about, it's the politicians....


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Jimmy James

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2010, 10:21:12 pm »

Just after the Falklands war I was working on a survey V/l in the Straits Magellan doing Oil Exploration for the Argies, Just before we completed our work we surveyed a jack-up drilling rig into position ---this was in 1983/84--- and it was a 6 month trip (brought back 2x 1,000,000 peseta notes ---this would just about fill your car with fuel ---if you had a small car) also we had to radio (Link Calls) Brazil and Argentina 48hrs before entering their CONTROLLED WATERS which went out to 1000 nautical miles offshore
1) Argies have been doing Oil Exploration for donkeys years (with only small returns)
2) Argies are broke
3) Argies have been claiming CONTROLLED STATE WATERS of over a thousand miles for over 30 years
      ARE the Argies desperate enough to use force to stop us getting the oil ????
     Who else would very much like to stop a major oil find from being under British control????
     Would they secretly back the Argies for a big slice of the black stuff and to keep their hands clean????

Anybody got an Old Battle Bowler I can have??? {:-{ {:-{ :(( :(( >:-o
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gingyer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #38 on: February 20, 2010, 10:28:38 pm »


 I haven't got access to Argentine intelligence, but I might guess that this is where they are parked at night: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=-51.684809,-57.782056&spn=0.0013,0.003449&t=h&z=18%3E

Unfortunatley you are not the senior Argintinian intelligence officer :-))

try the all singing and dancing military base to the west of stanley that has the latest equipment that the MoD has

called RAF Mount Pleasant http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=-51.684809,-57.782056&spn=0.0013,0.003449&t=h&z=18%3E
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #39 on: February 20, 2010, 10:37:43 pm »

Not really, our politicians at the time, including the sainted Thatcher, sent out the message that the Falklands were very much a peripheral interest by signalling the witdrawal of HMS Endurance and the Argentinians acted accordingly. They believed that there would not be the political will on the part of the UK Government to retake the islands and initially they weren't very far off the mark.

Colin

It was a little more complicated than that. The Argentines had effectively been promised the islands by the FCO, who had wanted to get rid of the Falklands for years, so there was no political will from them. There was initially no support from Nott, who had just about persuaded Thatcher that there was little that could be done when Sir Henry Leach brought her on side and got her to give the ok. Technically, it was the wrong decision - the task force was not up to the job on paper, with no top radar cover, and inoperable radar close to land. But the Navy has a tradition of ignoring the rules and going for it - in this case it paid off. To give her her due, Thatcher took her political decision and stuck to it. Our lack of early warning radar cost a lot of lives and equipment.

But what I meant about jumping the gun was that the Argentines had some new frigates and subs on order, which would have been delivered in a year or so. They were waiting for their next delivery of Exocets, and they had very few in stock. Britain was in the process of getting rid of its amphibious and carrier capability. A year's wait would have meant that the Argentines were far better equipped, while we would not have been able to raise a Task Force...   
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #40 on: February 20, 2010, 10:57:25 pm »

Unfortunatley you are not the senior Argintinian intelligence officer :-))

try the all singing and dancing military base to the west of stanley that has the latest equipment that the MoD has called RAF Mount Pleasant


Indeed - I sit in front of my screen corrected. You mean here: <http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=h&ll=-51.821217,-58.434842&spn=0.005186,0.013797&z=16>

which is where I guess the Typhoons live at night, or here, where the refueller lives:
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gingyer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #41 on: February 20, 2010, 11:08:50 pm »

yes that the place the VC10 and a Hercules sitting on the Pan
in front of the main hangers

it is some place they have there

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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #42 on: February 20, 2010, 11:14:56 pm »

Sorry,gingyer, I included the brackets in the Google - this looks like the fighter hangers:

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=-51.818697,-58.436236&spn=0.010373,0.027595&t=h&z=15

I note they haven't painted bulls-eyes on them, and there are 16, but I suspect infra-red should tell us which ones are occupied...
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2010, 11:24:04 pm »

And here, if I'm not mistaken, is the bomb/ammo storage facility. It's the opposite side of the airfield from the living quarters.... http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=h&ll=-51.807859,-58.477457&spn=0.005188,0.013797&z=16
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gingyer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #44 on: February 20, 2010, 11:35:17 pm »

I dont think you will find those hangers empty :-))
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #45 on: February 20, 2010, 11:56:28 pm »

Quote
It was a little more complicated than that.

Yes DG, I was paraphrasing, I don't need the history lesson, it was all pretty clear at the time and I remember it very well.

Your comments suggest that you are not entirely au fait with current naval capabilities. I have recently visited a couple of nuclear subs and I don't think the crews would support your contentions. I never suggested subs are magic but they are rather more capable than some people realise. I'm afraid that from my own contacts I don't really recognise the scenarios you have outlined, things have moved on a bit since WW2.

Colin
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justboatonic

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2010, 12:26:39 am »

It was a little more complicated than that. The Argentines had effectively been promised the islands by the FCO, who had wanted to get rid of the Falklands for years, so there was no political will from them. There was initially no support from Nott, who had just about persuaded Thatcher that there was little that could be done when Sir Henry Leach brought her on side and got her to give the ok. Technically, it was the wrong decision - the task force was not up to the job on paper, with no top radar cover, and inoperable radar close to land. But the Navy has a tradition of ignoring the rules and going for it - in this case it paid off. To give her her due, Thatcher took her political decision and stuck to it. Our lack of early warning radar cost a lot of lives and equipment.

But what I meant about jumping the gun was that the Argentines had some new frigates and subs on order, which would have been delivered in a year or so. They were waiting for their next delivery of Exocets, and they had very few in stock. Britain was in the process of getting rid of its amphibious and carrier capability. A year's wait would have meant that the Argentines were far better equipped, while we would not have been able to raise a Task Force...  

I dont recollect much of that. While its true the Falkland islanders were just a protectorate, I dont think the FCO who after all only cary out the Government's wishes ever said they wanted to give up the Islands. I recollect it was more a 'if the islanders want to become part of Argentina, we'll have discussions' but of course, the islanders never wanted this.

What actually signalled Galtieri's decision to invade the islands, apart from diverting unrest in Argentina, was John Nott, the defence secretary signalling the endurance would be withdrawn from the south atlantic. This gave Galtieri the impression the british Government were not bothered about the Island.

Thatcher was most displeased when South Georgia was invaded followed by the Falklands. Thatcher most definitely wanted a task force sent down to the SA to eject the Argentines but it was nott, the same self serving "xxxxx" who got a knighthood out of the whole mess who reckoned the navy couldnt pull it off. In fact, if the invasion had of been much later, notts decimation of the navy would have made it impossible for the navy to do the job at all.

While the lack of AWACS did put the fleet at a disadvantage lets not forget that Sheffield sadly blinded herself by being in direct contact with the MOD at the time of the exocet attack which blinded her defensive radar. If Sheffield hadnt been on to MOD, she would likely have seen the exocet and quite possiblly shot it down or used chaff.

Similarly, Coventry was lost because woodward insisted she and Broadsword(?) be close in to land despite being told by her captain he wouldmt get chance to shoot down any super etandards or skyhawks hopping over the islands. Even then, fate dealt Coventry a bad deal when acquiring a lock on the Argentine attack planes, her escort Broadsword(?) interferred with the lock which was lost. The rest sadly is history.

In this instance we can see first woodward's decision to offer Coventry and Broadsword(?) as sacrificial lambs was nothing short of treasonable and second, if Broadsword(?) hadnt of interupted Coventry's missle lock may have had a fighting chance.
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dodgy geezer

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #47 on: February 21, 2010, 01:33:52 am »

Yes DG, I was paraphrasing, I don't need the history lesson, it was all pretty clear at the time and I remember it very well.

Your comments suggest that you are not entirely au fait with current naval capabilities....

Colin

Well, it is true that the last time I was involved (in quite a junior capacity) with the strategic direction of submarines (and naval forces generally) was in 1982. I am glad to hear that they are much more capable now, but so, I suspect are the forces ranged against them. I can certainly remember that Northwood were particularly concerned about losing critical units and tried to put a lot of constraints on their deployment (constraints which were not always followed by the officers in operational command). And political decisions delay operations as well.  So I am still not sure that one, or two, SSNs in the area could prevent a sudden invasion. They could certainly cause a lot of damage if they were in the right place with suitable rules of engagement, but I do not think we can rely on that during a sudden attack...
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #48 on: February 21, 2010, 09:33:18 am »

Quote
In this instance we can see first woodward's decision to offer Coventry and Broadsword(?) as sacrificial lambs was nothing short of treasonable and second, if Broadsword(?) hadnt of interupted Coventry's missle lock may have had a fighting chance.

I think you will find it was the other way round, Coventry came between the Seawolf equpipped Broadsword and her targets which caused the seawolf system to lock. It seems to have been considered poor tactical judgement by Coventry's captain in naval circles.

Colin
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DARLEK1

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Re: Falklands Oil Row
« Reply #49 on: February 21, 2010, 11:25:12 am »

Actually Colin, Coventry had the incomming targets locked with her Sea Dart system, the Boradsword cut accross her bows breaking the lock then the Broadswords Seawolf system crashed and both of them got bombed, Coventry quickly sank. Broadsword's Seawolf system was knocked out of action through the bomb damage. I know this because a mate of mine was in Coventry's ops room at the time and is still in the RN.

 The ships of the time were not built to fight, since then there have been massive changes, so one I class carrier and a couple of assault ships plus say half a dozen escorts would probably sufice to put he argy bargies off trying it again and guess what, that is what is happening as I type more or less.

 Paul...
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