The upcoming nasty financial shocks are really a sequel to the banking crisis, which occurred due to the greed and incompetence of bankers. Part 2, the sequel, can be termed as the Sovereign Debt crisis, i.e. national governments have spent vastly more than they raise in taxed income, and the brown stuff is about to hit the revolving object. This will mean higher taxes in all areas for fewer services, and less disposable income for the man in the street.
How will this affect the hobby? Inevitably big ticket items, the large kits from the likes of Graupner and Robbe will be hit, but when times are hard there does seem to be a resurgence in craft based hobbies, and I'm sure there will be a swing back towards scratch building of simpler models, after all model boating is a hobby where you can spend as little or as much money as you like, it's all down to personal choice how to spend the leisure pound (or dollar).
Personally, I am in my mid-50's and still lucky enough to be gainfully employed. With the old time versus money equation I'm still kit bashing at the moment, but during the good times I have been squirrelling away tools, wood, metal, and plastic in the loft for a future return to scratch building when I get the old P45. I've been modelling all of my life and I'm certainly not giving up because a certain Gordon Brown messed up.
As Vintagent said 'Pays yer money and takes yer choice'.
Cheers,
Mike