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Author Topic: Only Electric & Hyrdogen New Cars by 2035 (2032?). Is It Practically Possible?  (Read 791 times)

Tug Fanatic

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I can see the real urgency in eliminating carbon emissions but I have a couple of observations about the idea of banning all but electric and hydrogen new cars from 2035 (or 2032 in this mornings papers.)

1. Where are we going to find the carbon neutral electric generating capacity on a cold dark calm winters night when we all want to charge our cars and neither wind nor solar are generating anything?

2. When are we going to upgrade the National Electricity Distribution Grid at all levels down to your house for the vastly increased capacity that it is going to need?

A reasonable estimate seems to be that we need to increase generating capacity, available in all weathers and at all times of day/ night by around 40% and distribution capacity by 50%+. Experience suggests to me that such a vast increase in both generating and distribution capacity will not occur overnight or even by 2035.
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grendel

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since a fast car charger (2 cars) takes the equivalent load of 10 average households (this is based upon the national average for a house consumption of 1.5kW and is a diversified load, compared to a car charger which takes its full load or not depending upon whether it has a car plugged in and is classed as a non diversifiable load. this means that for every current substation we have , 5 new ones will be required to take the load of car charging, trust me - the infrastructure isnt up to this, we would need to generate a lot more energy too.
hydrogen is in the mix because by then we will have converted domestic gas to hydrogen, its on the cards and trials are in progress.
once the gas infrastructure is in place then hydrogen cars are a distinct possibility. I think that has the same target dates as the car thing, now we just need the nmanufacturers to design the cars.
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warspite

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Just buy your car the day before the ban comes in  :D , they will still need to have fuel available (if there is any left in the ground) for use 20-30 years after the ban, my car turned 21 this month and year.  %)
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kinmel

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1 litre of petrol is equivalent to 9.8kw and cars use 16.2billion litres of petrol a year, (144billion kW per year)
1 litre of diesel is equivalent to 10kW and cars use 20.8billion litres of diesel (208billion kW per year )
Before you even begin to worry about how to generate an additional 350b kW, you need to calculate the cost of distributing it to every street in the UK when virtually all the urban cables are buried under roads.
Thank god this country knows how to design and build maga-projects such as HS2, Heathrow and cross-rail in just 12 years from a standing start.
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DaveM

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Technically? It's impossible in that timescale, of course - but politically?? I suppose we only have to believe and it will happen....  %)
DaveM
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Martin [Admin]

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Although we don't do 'politics' here on Mayhem.... we'll let this one until the weekend.

b Keep it civil / constructive gentlemen.   :police:
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Colin Bishop

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It is easy to make promises you kmow you will never have to keep! Politicians of whatever flavour are generally not lnown for their technological expertise.

Colin
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TheLongBuild

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Will it not just be a gradual change anyway as by then I would imagine there will be a lot more Electric cars on the road and some will stick to Petrol/Diesel until they or the car gives up the ghost and I bet the date gets extended anyway.

Colin Bishop

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Yes, ultimately there will have to be some pragmatism about it all.

(sorry for typos in my earlier post, I have a bit of an eye problem at the moment!)

Colin
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Baldrick

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  The thought of hydrogen fuelled cars fills me with dread .   With those numpties out there, no matter what safety features they build into the fuel dispensing facilities you can bet someone will defeat the system and put himself and the entire fuelling station into orbit.
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Colin Bishop

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Quote
The thought of hydrogen fuelled cars fills me with dread .   With those numpties out there, no matter what safety features they build into the fuel dispensing facilities you can bet someone will defeat the system and put himself and the entire fuelling station into orbit.

I wouldn't worry too much. As has been said, if petrol had just been invented it would be immediately banned as being far too dangerous to handle.

Anyway, a hydrogen leak would dissipate so quickly that it would be unlikely to ignite.

Also, bear in mind that batteries in electric cars contain a huge amount of energy in a small package and a short circuit could also send you into orbit. Even if you short circuit an ordinary standard car battery the results can be spectacular.

Colin

Colin
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CGAux26

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First I will say I am a gasoline man.  My career was in the oil refining business.


I agree with all you guys say about the huge new electrical infrastructure electric cars will require.  The national will and MONEY required to get that done is beyond practical imagination.  All the advocates of electric cars ignore this.


BUTT consider the comparative "refill" time.  You can pump a tank full of gasoline in 5 or 10 minutes and drive 200-300 miles before you fill up again.  A full electric charge takes, what 2-4 hours?  If your battery gets low far from home, you are stuck there for all that time.  And the range is far less.


Think I will move to Mars and try breathing CO2.
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Tug Fanatic

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To me the ability of a battery pack to accept a charge quickly is not such an issue as I am suspect that this is an area that will improve dramatically.

Where I become more sceptical is about the availability of recharging points that are always available on demand wherever you need them and the fact that the quicker the charge the greater the power the system supplying it needs to be able to supply in a given period of time. I can't see that a very large number of new pylons and transmission lines is going to be trouble & protest free even if sources of power can be built.

Martin,
Sorry if I posted a "political" topic but it didn't occur to me that it was political & outside the rules. At least we have all been well behaved so far.  :-))
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malcolmfrary

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As electrical energy for cars stands at present, we are unlikely to get anywhere near the charging capacity needed.  Probably the same with hydrogen. 
Either way, we are likely to need a huge change in transport habits when it come about.  I don't see the range problem ever going away with electric.
With hydrogen, I have heard about cars in WW2 being run with huge gas bags on the roof as a store for town gas.  Hydrogen was the main ingredient of that, but at the low pressures involved needed a big store (i.e. a great big gasbag) for any resonable range. 
At high pressure, things start to get tricky.  Storing and using, not a huge problem, but refuelling is where things become fraught.  And if the stuff is to be distributed via the gas grid, it will need considerable effort to compress it enough to get a big enough charge into a compact enough space to give the range wanted.  And compressing it takes more energy.
Could be practically possible, but quite possibly that means not practical.
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cos918

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one of the other problems is most homes. They have a 50ah single phase Fuse. Thats about 12Kw. add a 10Kw fast charger on the side of your House. Then some one flicks on the Kettle about 2Kw and pop gos the fuse.  Most home are not rated to run these loads. Of course you can get lower power chargers but they take longer to charge.
The goverment or who every can set a date . It means nothing. if there is not the correct inferstructer. 15 years is not a lot.
It take about 10years to get a Nucular power station on line. Maybe a little less. This week the brought down the last of Didcot A power station. Aberthaw is set to close soon. And the want to build about 2m homes in the south. Or abouth 20000 Kw+ of new load not to mention eletric cars .
The numbers simpley dont add up
John
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BrianB6

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Dads Army episode The Armoured Might of Lance Corporal Jones
Jones and Walker reluctantly travel to the church hall with a giant gas-bag on the roof. Jones' bayonet accidentally punctures the gas supply pipe and Jones and Walker succumb to the gas. When they recover, they learn that the gas bag is nearly empty. They reach the church hall to find it empty except for Frazer, who tells them that everyone's already at the practice. Frazer decides the gas fire of the Vicar can be used to refill the gas bag. The Vicar interrupts, but Frazer passes it off as filling the Vicar's gas fire.

Jones van Dads Army.jpg
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CGAux26

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Now to hydrogen. 
Where will it come from?  It can be made from crude oil, but the huge capacity would have to be built at a big cost.  And Oh, hardly carbon neutral and politically incorrect. 
Or you can make it by electrical electrolysis of water.  Again, mucho more electrical capacity required.
And how do you safely transport hydrogen to all the refueling points?  They bring it into my refinery in cylinders about 12" diameter, made of heavy wall steel, under very high pressure, so as to be able to transport it economically. 
The next couple of generations have huge challenges ahead.  Good luck, kids.
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imsinking

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Absolute nonsense , the materials for battery production are RARE , Hydrogen is expensive / dangerous to produce or transport , remember when NUCLEAR  power was going to be the be all for ships / cars / trucks you name it . . .Where are they ?
Until they can produce power within the vehicle etc it's going nowhere , or a different method of storing  not batteries , and fast charging (in minutes) it's just a pipe dream  . . .or for the WEALTHY
Bill  {-) [size=78%] [/size]
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BrianB6

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My predictions for 2035  :embarrassed:
The 2028 corona virus will have reduced the world population to 1 billion
Food production and distribution will be automated
Offices will be extinct.   The few workers that are needed to do office work will all work from home.
No one will own a car.   Taxis will be computer controlled and available on demand.
Goods distribution will be done only at night.   Again driverless.
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derekwarner

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An amazing pledge by BP [British Petroleum]......I wonder what it really means? ...... Derek


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-giant-bp-is-latest-to-pledge-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-2020-02-12
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CGAux26

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I expect these people who are demanding immediate stoppage of oil and gas production are not traveling by hydrocarbon fueled conveyances. 


And if and when we are forced into all the changes required to go electric or H2 cars, how are going to fuel airplanes?
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KitS

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And if and when we are forced into all the changes required to go electric or H2 cars, how are going to fuel airplanes?




Or railways?


With Government slowing electrification of some lines already (No wires from Bath to Bristol......) and miles and miles of track that no-one's even considered electrifying yet, how do they expect to run trains on those tracks?
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Regards
Kit

david48

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 When we stop Friction without lubrication maybe we will not need oil/grease!!!!!!!!
David
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warspite

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I'm waiting until they discover dylitheum crystals to power vehicles  %)
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warspite

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there used to be trolly busses, why not go the whole hog and do a scaletric set up in cities to cut carbon emissions  {-)
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