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[Baldrick]

  Doing A bit of idle mathematics between the barrage of bad news I have come to a conclusions that :- at the current rate of 130,000 plebs done per week and acknowledging that although I am as old as the hills there are more vulnerable people and front line workers who need doing first ,I estimate there are about 4 million in front of me I have booked the first week in August as a possible date

[Tug Fanatic]

Once the easier to administer vaccines come on stream the rate of delivery should go up dramatically.

What concerns me is the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine that most of us are going to get (cheapest & most available). It is uncertain how effective it is. The results of tests done are that it is around 65% with hopes that it might be higher but there are no statistically valid results for older people to prove that it will be and the newspaper headline numbers for a mistaken split dose do little to convince me. The other vaccines are all over 90% effective.

Proven 65% protection might be enough to make you happy to do more than you did but it doesn't do much for me. I do realize that if everybody had a 65% vaccine it would be the end of the problem but that is not going to be the case for a long time. In the meantime there is a 35% chance that it has done nothing for me at all.

As a person at serious risk am I going to take the 35% chance and am I going to believe you because you tell me that you are immune because you have had the 65% vaccine?

I will happily have any vaccine (95% effective) other than the Oxford AstraZeneca (65% effective) but we are not going to be given a choice as I understand it.

I am hoping that Oxford AstraZeneca come up with some acceptable statistically valid test results that show the split dose, that they accidentally gave to a small number of younger patents, actually works for older people and that it gives a protection rate of well over 65% and is equal to the 90%+ protection from the other vaccines. Until then I am not looking to be first in the queue as accepting it would surely put me at the back of the queue for anything better.

[jaymac]

I get my first jag this Tues at local practice luckily

[Colin Bishop]

I get my first jag this Tues at local practice luckily

Lucky you, most people will have to manage with a Ford Fiesta.

Re the AstraZeneca vaccine, the latest I heard is that it is likely to be given in two full doses but four weeks apart instead of three. The likely degree of immunity is indeed a concern but on the plus side it is believed that even if not immune and you get the jab the effects are likely to be mild.

This is all going to take a lot longer than HMG would like to have you believe.

Colin

[Tug Fanatic]

............................Re the AstraZeneca vaccine, the latest I heard is that it is likely to be given in two full doses but four weeks apart instead of three. The likely degree of immunity is indeed a concern but on the plus side it is believed that even if not immune and you get the jab the effects are likely to be mild......................

Colin

Firstly to say that everybody who has had the vaccine so far has had one of the 90%+ vaccines which I would happily have tomorrow.

Re the AstraZenica: I don't accept unproven medical data. "Believed" does nothing for me. I am waiting for peer reviewed results.
The government needs to talk up the Astra Zeneca vaccine as they want most people vaccinated and have they purchased so much of it plus it is cheapest. I don't and won't believe a word that they tell me without valid research results.

If they can get most people vaccinated the 65% would be fine but that is a long way off and in the meantime.............

Harsh but true.

[Colin Bishop]

I agree that we need those assurances which is presumably why it hasn't been approved yet and is unlikely to be before the end of the month. At only 65% I wouldn't feel too safe either during the coming months.

There are reports that the Pfizer batch we have will run out by end of January and it could be a couple of months before we get any more. The other vaccine apparently wont't be available in th UK before Spring.

Colin

[Tug Fanatic]

Colin

We are singing from the same hymnsheet.  . Do you have real specialist knowledge or are you just doing your best, as I am, with what you hear/read in the more respectable news media?

As I understand it they can approve any vaccine over 35% effective so 65% can be approved without waiting for any new results.

We will see.

[Martin (Admin)]

.... all OK so far!       

[Colin Bishop]

Do you have real specialist knowledge or are you just doing your best, as I am, with what you hear/read in the more respectable news media?

Yes, indeed. I try to make some sense of what seem to be the more reputable reports that are coming out. I'm not on social media! There is a blizzard of inaccurate, distorted and sometimes malicious information out there plus the the Government trying to project an upbeat attitude which may or may not be justified. It's very difficult to get an accurate picture. However I think that the regulator will not be influenced by political pressure as seems to have happened inthe USA.

It may be that the best we can hope for at this stage is a statement to what percentage the AstrazZeneca vaccine can be confidently stated to be effective together with a degree of probability what additional percentage is likely based on the known facts at this time. The latter will be firmed up over the coming months.

With all these vaccines there still remain big areas of uncertainty as to how long they will give immunity and to what extent they inhibit transmission of the virus by those who have been vaccinated. It is going to be a while before these questions are properly resolved one way or another.

Also will the vaccines be effective against the new variant of the virus? Basically that is left hanging in the air at the moment, too soon to tell.

And there are experiments going on to see if a combination of vaccines can push up the effectiveness percentage but it's early days for for those.

TBH the Government's suggestion that things will look much better by Easter might be, shall we say, a bit optimistic. Things may be looking up on the vaccine front but I don't think we yet have the silver bullet that many people are longing for

Colin

[kinmel]

I think many people misunderstand "65% effective "


Does it mean that if you have the vaccine then you have a 65% chance of not becoming infected if you meet a carrier?


Or does it mean that 65% of those vaccinated are fully protected and the other 35% of those vaccinated gain no protection at all ?


Two very different matters.

[Tug Fanatic]

I think that it means that, compared to not having had the vaccine, you are 65% less likely to catch Covid if you get the opportunity to do so.

Colin
Yes so many unknowns but the basic question for me is when I will get a vaccine if it is offered to me & how safe will I feel. My mental image is that at 95% I would feel safe to at least lead a very cautious life but at 65% it doesn't really change anything until most of the population have had it.

Easter? I doubt it. 

[Umi_Ryuzuki]

I think it should be mentioned that claims are that getting vaccinated will prevent "severe" symptoms if you get infected.

This would mean, that you can still be infected, and you can still contribute to the spread of the virus, even after vaccination.
People should remain cautious, and maintain safe health practices such as hand washing regardless.

Watching New Zealand crowds during the America's Cup - Prada races shows this virus can be managed.
But everyone has to cooperate to help manage the risks.

[Colin Bishop]

Obviously the virus can still enter the body even if you have been vaccinated (you could breath it in) but immunity means that it cannot develop and your body will attack and kill it before it can do you any harm. You might be infectious in the meantime though.

Presumably with those people who are the 5% (or maybe 35%) and not immune then the virus will develop to some extent according to the individual and symptoms may be mitigated. The AstrZeneca trial results stated that none of those who caught the virus suffered severe symptoms which suggests that it was still partially effective. Again, this is something to be confirmed.

That raises the interesting question whether you would feel safe with a 65% effective virus if you could be confident that if you were part of the 35% all you might suffer would be the equivalent of a bad cold. Hmm.

Colin

[TheLongBuild]

But everyone has to cooperate to help manage the risks.

And there lies the problem..

[Tug Fanatic]

...................................Presumably with those people who are the 5% (or maybe 35%) and not immune then the virus will develop to some extent according to the individual and symptoms may be mitigated. The AstrZeneca trial results stated that none of those who caught the virus suffered severe symptoms which suggests that it was still partially effective. Again, this is something to be confirmed.

That raises the interesting question whether you would feel safe with a 65% effective virus if you could be confident that if you were part of the 35% all you might suffer would be the equivalent of a bad cold. Hmm.

Colin

I guess that if it limited the effects to the symptoms of a cold then yes it would make me feel safer but still needing to make sure that I didn't pass it on. I would be in a better position than the third of people with the disease who don't know that they have it.

I wonder if the numbers in the trial who this applied to make it a significant result?

I would still go for the 90%+.

[cos918]

the two vaccinations work diffrent from what I have read.
Pfizer stops you getting the effects of the virus . You could come asymptomatic.
The Oxford A/Z stops you getting it. If you get it you get the symptions .

John

[Colin Bishop]

I guess we all need to wait for more definite information.

Colin

[Tug Fanatic]

the two vaccinations work diffrent from what I have read.
Pfizer stops you getting the effects of the virus . You could come asymptomatic........................

John

If that is right people taking the Pfizer vaccine effectively surely increase the risk to others as they might be infectious with no symptoms.

Yes we all have a lot to learn.

Goodness knows where we get pure information, and all the pure information, on which to base decisions. Some of the Lancet articles are a little heavy.

[derekwarner]

In Australia, we have an ABC  television/media Reporter...Dr Norman Swan....... [yes a real medical Doctor] born & trained in Scotland [so he can't be 1/2 bad].......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF7CXyYcFPM


We see so many reporters reporting on what other professionals are saying......so many State Principal Medical Offers [usually PhD's or Professors...the latter are the mouth pieces for Parliamentarians, so sing a responsible but tainted swinging tune


NSW came down in a Politically forceful manner when Victoria fell with 1000's of out of control cases, Victoria is now 'clean'ish .....NSW now has an outbreak and it is Victoria's turn to turn up the Political heat on NSW   


All the while, Dr Swan portrays a lack of Political sensationalism, however a stern learned voice........I have urged my three Daughters to listen to the ABC's Dr Swan and if happy, follow his voice   ..I sure do 

Derek

[HMS Invisible]

...
What concerns me is..

Medcram is a good youtube channel for Covid & medical info, George.
Somewhere in all of the output is a relevant and easy to understand whiteboard explanation herd immunity from of Strep B infection in the elderly in USA that came when vaccination of youngsters was rolled out.

[tigertiger]

Dr John Campbell is also another reliable source of information.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=dr+john+campbell

[tigertiger]

***Just a reminder***
Please avoid veering off into politics, hearsay, or conspiracy theory territory.

[roycv]

Hi all my son in Woy Woy (N. of Sydney) emailed me last night that they have gone into lockdown until Wed.
I am hearing that a person with symptoms has associated contacts tested to reveal many more.  Source, one locally and another on Radio 4 just minutes ago. 

If the vulnerable are vaccinated then it is likely that asymptomatic carriers will be there, but hopefully with fewer to infect, as the vaccination process continues.
This suggests we shall have the virus with us and will need to go into the same protective regime as we do for the young with MMR innoculations. (Mumps, Measles and Rubella).

As has been mentioned already, peer review is needed as we are all experiencing something new, however the experience is not unknown.  I remember the Salk vaccine arriving from the USA to control the epidemic of Polio in 1955. 

There have been quite a few problems since and the population, of any country, need to feel confident that their government are aware and prepared to act correctly and in their interest.
Most things cost money and it is easy to get complacent or over confident.  Where are all the ex-boy scouts, Be Prepared!

Just a thought but the U.K. is more centralized than several of the European countries, just flying overhead shows the dispersal of towns and cities in Europe, this is paying the price (?).  I believe Tokyo is the largest connurbation with 38M pop.  Many of them wore face masks well before we considered doing so.

Cheers,
Roy

[malcolmfrary]

https://www.gocomics.com/herman/2020/12/21


Seemed appropriate at this time of trouble.


Whatever the rated efficacy of whatever vaccine, we do need to have an edge on the virus.  Even if a particular vaccine doesn't stop individuals catching a form of the disease, reducing the effects more quickly has got to help a return to normality.  I has been suggested that the long term after effects of the disease are reduced.

[Tug Fanatic]

I remember a school teacher observing that one of the key differences between a quality newspaper and others was that the difference between fact and opinion / speculation was clearly identified.

In this whole debate (not here so much as nationally) we have far too much opinion & speculation backed up by too little fact with the difference between them being as blurred, often deliberately, as possible.

I await more fact.

PS Big decision of the day. Is it worth ordering salad stuff for our delivery on Wednesday or is it sitting rotting at Calais?