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Author Topic: Covid vaccination  (Read 72572 times)

warspite

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #25 on: December 21, 2020, 01:17:12 pm »

From memory when the vaccines were announced -


Pfizer - 94.5% effective, sample 40,000 although in another BBc segment there was a statement made that 20,000 were vaccinated and 20,000 control group i.e. placebo, over all age groups


Mederna - 90-95% effective, sample 30,000, over all age groups


AZ - 62% effective with two full doses, 90% effective with a half dose followed by a full dose - they could not understand way this was showing up in the test results, sample 20,000, over all age groups (noted that the trail groups were in Brazil and another location.


Pfizer first dose, then second dose 3 weeks later, possible immunity 7 days later i.e. 4 weeks to a month after the first dose, seems that the others may have the same timescale.


I predict that within the next 24 to 48 hours Yorkshire and the North West will move into tier 4 due the Saturday Super-spreader train event.


Another thought, assuming that come 1 January 2021 when WTO tariffs are applied to goods from the EU arrive (as I do not expect that a deal will be made), then will a tariff be applied to the remaining 39 million + doses that the Government will have to fork out for.  {-)
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #26 on: December 21, 2020, 02:24:41 pm »



..................Another thought, assuming that come 1 January 2021 when WTO tariffs are applied to goods from the EU arrive (as I do not expect that a deal will be made), then will a tariff be applied to the remaining 39 million + doses that the Government will have to fork out for.  {-)

Tariffs are imposed by the importer and not the exporter. Thus if goods are made in Europe and imported and the UK imposed tariffs they would be paying it to themselves.

What isn't so clear is the effect of currency exchange rates. After the Brexit vote it became largely impossible to negotiate international contracts in £. Contracts are now normally in euros or US dollars. It is clear that markets don't like the idea of no deal and that £ exchange rates will fall if that happens. This will make all imports, including vaccines, more expensive. I doubt that the Govt forward purchases Euros to cover the cost of purchase commitments. Such costs, whilst very important generally are unlikely to change the enormous cost of Covid substantially. If there is a trade agreement then markets will take a view. I won't say any more on this as I fear that it might be interpreted as political.
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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #27 on: December 21, 2020, 10:21:51 pm »

Well l followed a link I think was off BBC news to a vaccination timeline predictor and it said it would be at least August 2021 before they even got round to me getting a jab.  Won't look it up again as thought it was dubious about the accuracy.  I kind of thought as much timeline from the start though.  I'm very nervous about the whole thing to be honest but IF it's all true as I understand the more they can vaccinate in the mean time the statistics should change rapidly.  I just wished they had recognised the other symptoms earlier in the year because nothing convinces me I haven't had the gastric variant -absolutely horrible experience but they're not interested in that.
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Baldrick

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #28 on: December 21, 2020, 11:39:08 pm »




Now that we are all about to be locked down for goodness knows how long the following calculator might be of some help



https://www.omnicalculator.com/everyday-life/toilet-paper
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jaymac

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2020, 10:37:46 am »

Well had mine this morning very well organised joined queue at 0905 jagged at 0914 chucked out at 0929 :-) .
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Martin (Admin)

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2020, 11:51:52 am »

Well had mine this morning very well organised joined queue at 0905 jagged at 0914 chucked out at 0929 :-) .

Really???! .... Ain't you only about 18!!!
 
 

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jaymac

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2020, 12:31:48 pm »

 :}  True it reads that in a mirror
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derekwarner

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2020, 01:23:22 pm »

Thats funny, I was sure I had posted something in this thread correcting incorrect comments on World economics  :P
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Martin (Admin)

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2020, 01:47:44 pm »


Sheriff came to town... there's been a clean up!   :police:
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2020, 01:54:10 pm »

Well the Oxford Zeneca vaccine has been approved and I am even more confused than I was.

It was tested (as far as I know) with 2 full doses at a 4 week interval which gave a around 65% protection. A few younger test recipients mistakenly got a half strength first dose & for some reason protection improved to 90% plus. This was however a small group and not representative of the population as a whole. It now appears that the gap between doses is to be extended from 4 weeks to 12 weeks

So what size first dose has been approved?
Does anybody know how much protection that gives until the 2nd dose?
Does the spacing of the doses change the final level of protection?
After either 1 or 2 doses can I still become a carrier to infect others?

Have any of these changes been properly tested?

In considering the above I am very aware that the government and Sage priority is to protect the NHS more than it is to protect me as an individual and that incomplete disclosure is very likely effectively misinformation.
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Dunkel

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2020, 02:05:55 pm »

My interpretation:


Both injections are full dose
Latest data shows about 70% protection after 21 days
The second dose improves the longevity of protection not the level.


These changes have been robustly tested, but more data is being collected continually and an even better protocol may be found
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2020, 02:16:17 pm »

Some professional views here which generally support what Dunkel says.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-being-approved-for-use-in-the-uk-by-the-mhra/

However, we are also being told that after the first dose plus 22 days then if you do catch the virus the effects are likely to be relatively mild and hospitalisation is unlikely.

Of course none of this can be guaranteed and even if all the claims are true it is going to be quite a while before we can be relatively free of restrictions. My guess, for what it is worth would be late Spring to mid Summer at the earliest.

No silver bullet in the short term unfortunately.

Colin
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Dunkel

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2020, 02:38:35 pm »

I have followed Dr John Campbell on youtube,


 https://youtu.be/8Pj4_aK-j8I


He is the former Chief Nurse responsible of all nursing training in the NHS as well as several other key posts and is very good at data analysis and review. His almost daily updates are without bias and trustworthy, often blowing through political bull to the real facts, good or bad. Although a bit long- winded he explains things very well.
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2020, 02:40:07 pm »

My interpretation:


Both injections are full dose
Latest data shows about 70% protection after 21 days.................


So have they given up on the 90% with the reduced first dose?

I read somewhere that Oxford Zeneca are saying that they have a regime which gives the same results as the other vaccines but no details were included and I am not sure if that is what is being proposed.

Why do I have a nagging feeling that from an overall population perspective getting a dose into a lot of people is a good idea, even if it is not particularly effective for each individual.

The evidence for reduced severity in older people with existing conditions after one dose still seems flimsy.

I understand that something has to be done but I do wonder if my, and your, health is somehow being ignored for the good of the overall population and reducing pressure on the NHS.

This sounds more like a military view of soldiers welfare than any other comparison that I can think of.

Colin and Dunkel.
Thank you for the links. I am going to have a look/read.
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2020, 02:52:30 pm »

Having read Colin's link it appears my questions are also being asked by the experts.

They didn't like the 65% so they have decided to give up talking about it. Politics & spin.
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2020, 04:06:55 pm »

Yes, I think that to get a dose into as many people as possible as soon as possible is the policy. But, TBH, what other option is there right now? Apparently the next lot of Pfizer (assuming it is any better) won't arrive until March.

It is of course an evolving situation. There is nothing to stop extra shots being given at a later date if more effective vaccines/dosage options are found. After all, we get the  flu jab annually and its a bit different every time.

Colin
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jaymac

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2020, 04:16:05 pm »

That would tally with the fact just had a call from my health centre  saying my 2nd dose due on Jan 12 is now delayed until  a few weeks later. No explanation why I shall ask them tomorrow.


Meanwhile, Pfizer released a statement on Wednesday saying that its vaccine was not intended to be taken 12 weeks apart. It said the vaccine's safety and efficacy had not been evaluated on any dosing schedule other than 21 days between jabs. [/size]It added that [/color][/size]'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days'[/color]
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #42 on: December 31, 2020, 04:50:24 pm »


.............................Meanwhile, Pfizer released a statement on Wednesday saying that its vaccine was not intended to be taken 12 weeks apart. It said the vaccine's safety and efficacy had not been evaluated on any dosing schedule other than 21 days between jabs. It added that 'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days'

Yes that started me thinking when read it. Political expediency is ahead of the science which I regard as very dangerous as it means that you simply can't be sure where you are.

I gather that GP's are not very happy about it either.

I can foresee potential problems ahead if real science isn't happy about the untested extended interval between doses.

I don't think that a single jab is going to make me feel safe until real science proves that it does.
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #43 on: December 31, 2020, 05:02:49 pm »

Quote
I don't think that a single jab is going to make me feel safe until real science proves that it does.

Amen to that!

Colin
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Baldrick

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #44 on: December 31, 2020, 05:52:15 pm »




  I would be happy to just get one !   Received a text from our quack which in essence says " Don't contact us about when you will be getting a jab , we've no idea either , even though you are a 85 year old physical wreck and don't enquire where the jab (you should be so lucky) will be given we haven't the foggiest, we suspect the health authority will be setting up some special centres for the purpose but who knows.  We British were always good at improvisation, what's gone wrong ?
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #45 on: December 31, 2020, 06:54:28 pm »

I suspect that many of us are waiting to be offered our first jab.

I am just wondering if I will accept anything that they offer when the time comes or whether I would prefer to wait until I know what the result would be and possibly until I know which vaccine I would get. I have been in lock down for 9 months - I haven't been in a shop since Easter - and I am not going to waste all that effort now

If it proved to be true that 12 weeks was too long between doses what could / would they do about it.

As an aside if they give first doses for 12 weeks and then have to give second doses, all things being equal, it would mean that there wouldn't be any further 1st doses for the next 12 weeks to clear the 2nd dose waiting list - or would they extend 12 weeks to 15 or 16 or................  I am sure that they are hoping the system ramps up but even so.

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Colin Bishop

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #46 on: December 31, 2020, 07:15:15 pm »

Well, on the basis that something is worth more than nothing I would have the jab as it offers the chance of a good degree of immunity plus probably alleviation of serious symptoms if you do catch it. It is very unlikely that you will suffer a reaction and be worse off.

But as you say, it doesn't mean you can let your guard down. It's just a bit of (hopefully worthwhile) extra insurance.

No return to normality for maybe 6 months at least yet I fear despite Boris' optimistic bletherings.

Colin
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jaymac

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #47 on: December 31, 2020, 07:28:35 pm »

I think its  mainly Boris wants to add another  feather to his  cap by rushing to get the Oxford one out to get another first. Problem being the system was geared up for the Pfizer.Still when he does a Cameron  in the spring it won't bother him.
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Colin Bishop

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #48 on: December 31, 2020, 07:34:15 pm »

Johnson can't take credit for the Oxford vaccine. It's down to the scientists that created it. Whether the politicians will be able to deliver on the rollout and on what basis remains to be seen. They don't exactly have an encouraging track record.

Anyway, Johnson is all singing and dancing tonight about his wonderful Brexit achievement (as if anybody cares now).

Colin
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Tug Fanatic

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Re: Covid vaccination
« Reply #49 on: December 31, 2020, 07:39:30 pm »

Johnson can't take credit for the Oxford vaccine. It's down to the scientists that created it.................

Colin

That never stopped a politician.

The way I feel at the moment I am with Boris's father except that I don't have French parents.  I don't think that I have ever started a New Year so full of pessimism and so ashamed to be British. Anyway no more on that as it is near to being political.
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