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[Colin Bishop]

France is a damn sight worse than us I'm afraid. Another forum I belong to paints a very bleak picture.

New Zealand? Definitely! Best holiday we ever had back in 2013, sigh!

Colin

[Tug Fanatic]

.............New Zealand? Definitely!..................

Colin

I don't think that they want us, at our age, either.

[Colin Bishop]

A few days ago it was being suggested that the bottleneck with vaccinations would come with the logistics of getting people injected. Reports this morning indicate that in fact there is likely to be a supply problem i.e. not enough vaccine available. Hence another reason just to give just one jab. If you get offered it then take it while you can, it could be a long time before the next one arrives.

Somehow I don't think we will seeing things approaching normal by Easter at all - for anyone!

Colin

[Tug Fanatic]

I was reading about a shortage of the glass containers that contain each dose. I am reckoning on a first dose offer before Easter.

I gather that you & I are both not convinced about when you will get a dose nor the 12 weeks either.

The drugs companies are going to need do a lot of work to be sure what the effect of delaying the 2nd dose for an indefinite period will be. I am not so sure that the non UK companies will do it unless other countries adopt the same strategy.

[Dunkel]

A short interview with Dr John Campbell talking about the delay between giving the two doses of both vaccines. It clarifies some of the queries above. Again, this guy knows his stuff and has no personal agenda


https://youtu.be/LIFqzDQJHuw

[jaymac]

So how come Campbell thinks he knows better than Pfizer? Unless Pfizer have withdrawn this
'there are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days' 

[Tug Fanatic]

The videos are interesting but I do agree that some of what he says seems different to the drugs companies output that I have read. He is clearly an enthusiast for getting as many people a single dose as possible. If it proves to be true that one does stop serious illness then it must make sense to give it to a lot of people which reduces the risk of getting it at all. As with so much about Covid we won't know the full story until a few million have had a dose for some time. 

He suggests that delaying the 2nd dose might increase the overall effectiveness. That is the first that I have heard of that & it might represent a significant difference between the Pfizer & Oxford Zeneca.

He also says that the effectiveness of one dose is higher with Oxford Zeneca than Pfizer. Again this is news to me.

[roycv]

Hi jaymac I think the 21 days is what the vaccine was tested for and registered or authorised for. 

I have an allergy pill which I take and I mentioned to a GP that on occasion I might need 3 in one day and his response was that it was authorised for only 2 pills per day.  I think it might be that later, as experience shows, other regimes are possible and certainly in my case quite safe.
regards
Roy

[Tug Fanatic]

No wonder that delivery is likely to be slow. Unlikely as it may be the best link appears to be this one:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9105999/Checklist-retired-medics-wade-qualify-Covid-vaccinator-volunteers.html

We know a retired Medic who was going to volunteer until he got this list.

Give me a syringe & I will happily give it to me myself. The chance of all those other things going wrong is much less than the danger of getting Covid. I'll take the risk that I might spontaneously combust (item 9)! 

[Tug Fanatic]

Do we know what we are doing or have we abandoned the science?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/england-health-officials-defend-contingency-plan-to-mix-covid-vaccines

[jaymac]

Though anyone who is a member of a Darts team is exempt the list.Campbell is a retired nurse and now teaches nurses so far not found any qualifications.As for the delay being ok when The Doctor phoned me to tell me about my cancellation for the 2ndDose his opening statement was I have some BAD news.It also appears  some clinics in Bristol  say they will ignore the order.

[phil_parker]

Somehow I don't think we will seeing things approaching normal by Easter at all - for anyone!

Or indeed, according to the Lancet - ever: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext
There will always be another virus strain. ANOTHER good reason to keep restrictions. At the moment, SAGE are pushing for schools to be closed into February, but that's just the furthest they feel they can push right now. In 5 weeks time it will be "keep them closed until the end of Easter" and in April "Well, June and the summer holidays is only a couple of months away."
I don't think this is the end of the world. It's just that if this is, to quote the article, the new normal - tell us. Throughout history, humans have adapted. Even in this pandemic, shops and other businesses have adapted to become Covid safer. They will do so again. Sadly, this will be without pubs, cafes, theatres etc. but will WILL adapt. Even our model boat club ditched the weekly meeting in place of members booking sailing time at the lake. If we can do it, so can the rest of the world.

[Colin Bishop]

History teaches that pandemics burn themelves out even without the benefits of modern science otherwise we would still be suffering from the 1918/19 Spanish flu and the Great Palgue of London. Things will get back to what we regarded as normal, it is just a question of time.

Nobody seems to know just why some countries, and western civilisation in particular, has been hit so heavily compared with other areas such as Africa and Japan. The answers to this may show how the Covid-19 virus can be effectively suppressed.

It may indeed end up being with us long term but maybe only on the same basis as common flu and other viruses we already live with and which are not fatal for most people.

Colin

[kinmel]

The Black Death was extremely virulent and wiped out half the European population before it ran out of victims. That equates to 33million people in the UK today; hard to describe that burning itself out.
Pandemics end when the virus has difficulties finding humans that are not immune to it.
The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.
Ebola died out because the affected population of central Africa mainly walked everywhere.

Covid 19 is rampant now because air travel and cruises allowed people to move quickly between continents and cities are overcrowded. All made worse by people who won't self-isolate.
Pandemics have 2 enemies - quarantine and vaccines.   We rely on the first until the second is widely implemented.

[phil_parker]

Flu hasn't burned itself out - and kills many thousands each year. This is year is different because the measures to combat Covid seem to be dramatically hitting flu numbers - as they did in the southern hemisphere.

Were Flu to be a new disease, would we lockdown in the same way? I suspect we would. Ultimately, the numbers of deaths acceptable is a political decision, but I suspect that it will be a very long while before someone works out that figure. In the meantime, the science says that you lockdown in an effort to reach zero deaths. As long as you can ignore any collateral damage, that's fine.

[Colin Bishop]

True Phil but I've been lucky in that over 70 years I've not known anyone who has died of flu.

But in 2020, just one year alone, I have known of four people who have died of Covid -19 and another five who have suffered badly from it.

Colin

[phil_parker]

That is more likely luck. 17,000 people die of flu in a normal year. If this was new, I could see restrictions being imposed like a shot. Because we have grown used to it, then there isn't any fuss.

To use another example, if you invented the motor car today, would they be allowed to travel towards each other at 60mph (closing speed 120mph) separated only by a painted line? Not a chance. People would view it as madness, but it's how we work today.

I firmly believe The Lancet is right - restrictions are going to be with us for a very long time indeed. Any politician who says it will be over by Easter is an idiot. As I say, if we are honest about this and let the business world evolve, then we can get a better "new normal", but for that we need consistent rules and there's no sign of those any time soon.

[Colin Bishop]

Over 70 years I don't think it is luck! But I do agree that 'things won't be over by Easter'. I do have some faith in modern science but don't expect immediate results.

Colin

[jaymac]

[
The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.


So  Pacific Islands/ Alaska and Australia and more are Neighbours 

[Peter Fitness]

Over 70 years I don't think it is luck! But I do agree that 'things won't be over by Easter'. I do have some faith in modern science but don't expect immediate results.

Colin

It may indeed be over by Easter, but I’m not sure in which year.


Peter.

[Peter Fitness]

The Spanish Flu was not carried globally because few people moved very far and the virus had no access to the rest of the world.

Not so jaymac, in 1919 over 40% of the Australian population was infected by the so called Spanish Flu, and over 15000 people died as a result. The population of Australia was under 4 million then as opposed to the current figure of over 25 million. For comparison, Australia has recorded about 25,500 cases of Covid, and 909 deaths so far.


The Spanish flu virus was brought to Australia by soldiers returning from WW1, and had its worst effect on children and younger people, unlike Covid.


Peter.

[jaymac]

Not So Peter  read  it again  my part was a comment against  a Post about 5 before

[Peter Fitness]

My apologies jaymac, your comment didn’t show up as a quote from a previous post. Quotes are normally highlighted. I should have directed my reply to kinmel.


Peter.

[jaymac]

No prob Peter my lazy posting

[Tug Fanatic]

Speaking as someone who has not been in an ordinary shop since last Easter and has maintained absolutely rigorous social distancing this picture in the i newspaper this morning fills me with horror much more than it fills me with hope.

Once more I suspect that they will accept a few getting Covid if it helps protect the NHS. Remember you have no Covid protection for several weeks after getting the vaccine and they are telling us that at least one person, on average, in the picture has the disease. I would much prefer the whole thing to be done outside and to dress accordingly.