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[phil_parker]

Even after you have had your jabs and become, hopefully, immune, you are still a walking surface capable of transporting infection from one person coughing their fluids around to anybody you come into contact with.

Science begs to differ: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913 and https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2021/04/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19  You aren't completely immune either, but very unlikely to need to bother the NHS.

That doesn't mean we should go around ignoring all hygiene rules, but it's not as bad as you suggest. Mind you, if anyone coughs their fluids in your face, I don't feel a slap in their face with a cricket bat (we are British after all) is unreasonable, Covid or not.

It is still a mystery to me why local surges don't result in a large number of vaccinations descending on the area jabbing anyone they can find. It's not an instant fix, but a very effective one.

[Colin Bishop]

The present mushrooming of cases of the Indian variant is largely centred on areas where significant numbers of people have returned from th sub continent to multi generational families and anecdotal evidence I have heard suggests that many have not isolated as required. The situation is made worse by these areas also featuring low uptake of vaccination.

There is a list of 'hotspots'. Most are in the Midlands or the North but there are also some in London.

I think the infection rate in Bolton yesterday was quoted as 162/100k. The rate down here in Surrey is 11.

Colin

[phil_parker]

The present mushrooming of cases of the Indian variant is largely centred on areas where significant numbers of people have returned from th sub continent to multi generational families and anecdotal evidence I have heard suggests that many have not isolated as required. The situation is made worse by these areas also featuring low uptake of vaccination.

I'm always dubious of "anecdotal evidence" where there is the potential for it to be affected by racism. However, isolating in a small house with a large multigenerational family is going to be difficult no matter who you are. That's why a lot of the hotspots are also in poorer areas, made worse because for many, not going to work means no money. Zero-hours contracts don't offer sick pay!
The solution in the medium term is vaccination. There is a strong correlation between areas with low levels of take-up and hotspots. Vaccinate everyone in the area from 16 upwards, and you'll see a change. Quite a quick one too, as apparently younger people react to the vaccine faster reaching useful levels of cover within 10 days. Do that and you will curb the spread.

[Colin Bishop]

I'm always dubious of "anecdotal evidence" where there is the potential for it to be affected by racism.

Yes, that is a fair point. In this case it was a close friend living near a North London multigenerational housing area and able to see for himself what was happening - no social distancing etc. He refuses to go to the local hospital as he considers it unsafe.

I agree about vaccination being needed but this morning's reports say that although surge vaccination may be applied (by vans on the street in some cases), it won't be effective soon enough to make a difference to the current spread. And of course the other problem is that you cannot force vaccination on those who refuse it which can be frustrating when it is those people who would benefit most, being more vulnerable.

A lot of younger people are not necessarily going to be enthusiastic about vaccinations when they weigh up the likely mild effects if they catch the bug against the circulating scare stories of side effects on social media and by the Presidents of France and Germany.

Somehow you have to persuade these people to come on board.

Colin

[phil_parker]

I agree about vaccination being needed but this morning's reports say that although surge vaccination may be applied (by vans on the street in some cases), it won't be effective soon enough to make a difference to the current spread. And of course the other problem is that you cannot force vaccination on those who refuse it which can be frustrating when it is those people who would benefit most, being more vulnerable.

A lot of younger people are not necessarily going to be enthusiastic about vaccinations when they weigh up the likely mild effects if they catch the bug against the circulating scare stories of side effects on social media and by the Presidents of France and Germany.

Somehow you have to persuade these people to come on board.

It's an interesting question as to how worried we should be about the spread. Yes, it makes existing doom-laden headlines, but the vaccine scientists aren't concerned that this variant is going to beat them. If you don't see a significant rise in hospitalisations and deaths, then we have time to vaccinate, which will then reduce the spread. It's a better policy than not vaccinating anyway.

As for persuading people - the solution is reverse psychology. Simply tell them see don't care if they die - that's their decision. Have the chancellor appear in adverts saying "Don't get vaccinated, your death means I don't have to pay your pension! More money for Richie!" Then some will get their jab just to spite him...

[derekwarner]

Recent Report from a Medical Journal ...........


All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences. WHO’s advisers were saying the word airborne only applied to particles smaller than 5 microns. The trajectory of a 5-micron particle from a person’s mouth went farther than 6 feet—hundreds of feet farther. On December 1, the organization acknowledged aerosol spread and finally recommended that everyone always wear a mask indoors wherever Covid-19 is spreading.
--------------------------------



I have absolutely no objection of wearing a Mask in my home if the NSW Health direct so, however I find it difficult to comprehend "the trajectory of a 5-micron particle from a person’s mouth went hundreds of feet????   Laws of Physics would suggest that this was not possible.....

....if you need more proof, this little Guy cannot even blow out a candle @ 1 foot let alone hundreds of feet away...

The article sounds like a 2021 version of The 3 Little Piggies........Huff, Puff & I'll Blow your House Down


Derek

[warspite]

An Aerosol particle can be light enough to be conveyed over great distances as its weight is insufficient for it to drop to the ground and is therefore effected by even the slightest air pattern (see vapour spread in a room from a vapor smoker).


The charge of being a racist when talking about those who refuse or are advised not to take the jab is usually levelled at those trying to get them to do the right thing, like it was said above you have to apply reverse psychology to put the point across,


i.e. yes you could die or someone close to you could, if you contract the virus.
And to be quite honest its no great loss if it is you, though not if it is someone you infect. Why, because it would be the darwin effect of getting rid of those who are quite honestly are capable of spreading the virus to those who are susceptible.


Those that live in the area causing concern at the moment, dont care about anyone else only their families, yet they are the ones who are affected, I know those neighbors that have returned from family in India and Pakistan by flying to a non red country before flying to either France or Amsterdam before returning through Manchester to avoid the hotel isolation, we cannot report them as no one listens and dont care really, and those that do report them are vilified by their community.


 

[Colin Bishop]

From the PM's broadcast this evening it does seem that the non compliance with various COVID precautions by UK asian communities is posing a very real danger to the COVID Roadmap timetable. It is an incredibly difficult situation.

The previous comments about reverse psychology are likely to fall on deaf ears and are entirely impractical. The relevant communities aren't listening and won't respond. The local authorities have to try to engage with these people to change their behaviour which is a big ask.

With regard to younger people, the carrot has to be that unless you are vaccinated then your ability to do this, that and the other or support your footie team is going to be restricted. Telling people that if you don't have the jab you're gonna die just doesn't cut it. Hardly any of them won't and they know it. But thy can still pass the virus on to the vulnerable who might. Part of the problem is that people react according to their own personal circumstances and understandably so, but this can have a devastating effect on the national situation.

As for me, I see our prospects of revisiting Greece fading into the future. 

Colin

[Baldrick]

   As far as I am concerned this is totally another instance of Boris and his boys being late at the party again and letting the oxygen of success escape .  It was common knowledge from 6 weeks ago that the pandemic was building to criticality on the Indian Continent and they are fully aware that Indian/English residents make frequent exchange visits to relatives and visa versa. But it was not politically convenient to put India on the embargo list until it was too late , and then only said it would be from 5 days hence causing a surge of flights between the countries. Can only assume this was to give an impression of everything being hunky-dory before our local elections because it was one a day or so after them that the climate changed.

[Tug Fanatic]

I....................... Yes, it makes existing doom-laden headlines, but the vaccine scientists aren't concerned that this variant is going to beat them. ......

It probably won't beat them but it might well cause major problems in the meantime.

I still think that allowing overseas travel for anything other than essential visits (which doesn't include leisure) is a mistake until the vaccine roll out is complete - whether you are rich or poor.

I agree with Baldrick. There is an old saying that "a stitch in time saves nine". Boris has obviously never heard it.

Actually it is unfair to blame Boris totally. He is under a lot of pressure from all sides. The medical opinion tends to say caution but there are a lot of Conservative MP's and Labour figures such as Andy Burnham, Mayor of Manchester + various industry pressure groups, who are advocating opening up regardless. If you remember that the main objective was never our health but rather to stop there being pictures of overcrowded hospital wards & people dying on the pavement then his situation becomes understandable. Wrong but understandable.

[malcolmfrary]

Science begs to differ: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913 and https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2021/04/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19  You aren't completely immune either, but very unlikely to need to bother the NHS.

That doesn't mean we should go around ignoring all hygiene rules, but it's not as bad as you suggest. Mind you, if anyone coughs their fluids in your face, I don't feel a slap in their face with a cricket bat (we are British after all) is unreasonable, Covid or not.

It is still a mystery to me why local surges don't result in a large number of vaccinations descending on the area jabbing anyone they can find. It's not an instant fix, but a very effective one.

An interesting article, but no mention of surface transmission. 
A vaccinated person is much less likely to host the virus, but his coat, having been spluttered on by a passer-by who has not been vaccinated will provide a surface to transport it, and surface droplets carrying the vaccine travel just as before.  Social distancing prevents the second part - your coat still carries contagion, but you are less likely to pass it on.
The object is to slow the spread down so that the NHS is not overwhelmed until effective treatments can be found and/or enough people are vaccinated to cut transmission that way.
From what was mentioned earlier, I can't disbelieve that there are people in insurance companies and the odd Mandarin in the Treasury who have not calculated the cash savings for their organisations of not having to pay out on pensions.  These are the "no pain, no gain" crowd who are convinced that it can't happen to them because the pain will fall on others and they will get the gain.

[derekwarner]

ooooh  ...and as Malcolm says ..


"I can't disbelieve that there are people in insurance companies and the odd Mandarin in the Treasury who have not calculated the cash savings for their organisations of not having to pay out on pensions.

So true,...so true Malcolm


Derek

[Tug Fanatic]

The cash savings to the Treasury are pretty trivial compare to the cost of the whole thing. I suspect that they have worked out the savings just as they have tried to work out the costs. This is the right thing for them to do and is not the same thing as hoping for deaths to save money.

[jaymac]

I read China got caught out on their minimal Covid deaths claim someone  Pointed out the bigger reduction in pension withdrawals

[Baldrick]

Ive been drawing my pension for over 20 years now must be costing the country and annuity companies a fortune. Did wonder if the pandy thing was a beneficiary reduction exercise from said benefactors.

[warspite]

One of my youngsters has had his today in one of the surge vaccination centres for bolton, as has is girlfriend, my eldest is going tomorrow for his, one is 25 and the other 20.


The wifes 2nd will be soon.

[Tug Fanatic]

Slightly off topic but protection is what this is about.

Tui & Easy Jet have announced that they are going to start holidays to amber countries. If you go there then there are are lots of jabs and 10 days at home quarantine when you get back.

Does anybody believe that those that take the holidays will actually follow this regime or that it will be enforced in any meaningful way?

I don't.

It appears that the government now agrees with me. Pity that they are saying it so late & so awkwardly. Don't go but we won't help you get a refund from your holiday company is about as mixed a message as you could ask for.

PS This applies to both rich & poor alike.

[Taranis]

The jist of what I've gleaned from radio 2 today is that the main victims of the surge in infections are those who were eligible for the jab but didn't bother to get it or just didn't want it. Tough justice

[phillnjack3]

Some of you obviously have had the vaccine, but there are millions of us who will no way be conned into having it..
if people are willing to have it and want it then its upto them, but me no chance..

[BrianB6]

What are you afraid of? 1:250,000 chance of a clot or that you will be invaded by Microsoft.
I am having mine from my local GP Clinic next Tuesday.   If I get full blown Covid, that will be my end but I should survive a minor attack.
Please get one (2) to save the rest of us.
Brian B6

[Peter Fitness]

It's a personal choice, but those who choose not to be vaccinated put the rest of the population at risk. My wife and I, as well as all our friends of similar age, have had our first jab, with our second due on July 2. I am happy to put my faith in the medical experts, not the conspiracy theorists.


Peter.

[derekwarner]

It appears that we 3 [from OZ] are in a similar Boat......with my second [AZ] booster booked for 12th July


Young Nurse doing the 1st injection confirmed that the second vaccination is the identical strain of epidemiological bio-chemical viratic AZ goop


There appears to be some rather concerning talk in the Media, that the second booster shot could be a Fizzy strain, after having the initial AZ variant......this is irresponsible to my mind in adding further confusion in the need for herd immunity


Derek

[Peter Fitness]

Derek, if we believed everything we heard or saw in the media, we’d all be totally mad   I did hear a highly qualified medical person say that there is no reason why different vaccines can’t be used. For example, AV for the first shot, and Pfizer, or one of the others, for the second. In fact, I’m fairly sure he said it may be a good thing to do just that. I’ll happily take which ever I’m given. 


Peter.

[Colin Bishop]

It is pretty vital that Oz (and NZ) complete their vaccination programmes with a high take up otherwise come later next year they may well find themselves in an isolated bubble in a world where the virus has largely been brought under control.

Colin

[NickelBelter]

It's a personal choice, but those who choose not to be vaccinated put the rest of the population at risk. My wife and I, as well as all our friends of similar age, have had our first jab, with our second due on July 2. I am happy to put my faith in the medical experts, not the conspiracy theorists.


Peter.

Once you get your second dose, you will be immune to the effects of the disease.  Everyone else in the world could be hacking their lungs out and you would be sitting pretty.  That's how vaccines work.  If after the full regimen of doses you are still susceptible to being sickened and killed by the pathogen in question, what you've received is not a vaccine but some sort of experimental prophylactic.